2012 ....... Or the Day after Tomorrow?

 2012 ........ or the Day after tomorrow?

A Geologist could study the Fault Lines and Tectonic Plates of the geopolitical World as much as they could the geological ones.

A Patchwork or Network of Allegiances and Enmities that met at certain points mostly remaining dormant apart from an occasional Rumble as they jostle against each other then settle down.

But what if they don't and begin to erupt or cause an Earthquake like those at San Andreas?

Berlin was one for a very long time, with several tremors caused by the Berlin Airlift, and the Building of the Wall. Korea saw the huge Plates of the Soviet Union and China collide with a predominantly American one. Cuba in 1962 or Hungary and Poland in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968, then there was Vietnam. 

Not to mention the various Conflicts of "Proxies" in the Israeli-Arab World.

The Balkans in the 1990's was another as the Serbs were tacitly supported by Russia and others by the West and finally NATO.

The Ukraine is an example of how this has happened after it remained dormant after WW2. It might have seethed occasionally during the Cold War with Operation Nightingale and maybe even a few stand offs in the Air and on the Sea with NATO in the Black Sea but these were isolated Incidents.

But what we have seen in recent years is different and the Incidents not only aren't isolated they are also causing other Fault Lines in the region and beyond to rupture. From the Baltic to the Balkans old Wounds that were gradually healing have reopened. This has also happened in Scandinavia which has even seen new ones form between Russia and Sweden.

The Balts have revisited their Acrimony with Moscow and Poland seals it's Border with Belarus while watching the Suwalki Corridor.

In an ominous resonance of History the Balkans have begun to creak. The Serbian Government try to straddle their Loyalties with both Russia and the EU they are now surrounded by. They are also now surrounded by NATO - who launched their Assault on Serbia in the 1990's. This might have begun to heal in an uneasy Peace were it not for the War in Ukraine which has caused the Serbs to look to their traditional Russian Allies as they wonder what intrigue could be done to them.

The Bosnian Serbs in Pale have begun to jostle for Secession from the Bosnian Federation which puts a huge strain on the Region and causes raised Eyebrows in both Brussels and Belgrade.

While not in NATO Bosnia - or at least its Bosniaks - enjoy preferred Status, but while things remain in flux it allows the Bosnian Serbs a very small Land bridge to the Dalmatian Coast and the outside World.

The increasing Pressure caused by the War in Ukraine and the growing Tectonic Plates that confront each other in it could cause any allegiances in the former Yugoslavia to solidify and become fixed.

A Trip to Sarajevo anyone?

Further East, the Fault Line of Transnistria - which erupted in War between pro-West Moldovans and ethnic Russians - had remained dormant for 30 years until the Ukraine Conflict caused a Conflict Line between Russia and the eastern Balkans.

Then, there was "Axis of Evil" and how that proved very counterproductive.

This created the impression that Iran, Iraq and North Korea somehow had regular meetings to decide how they would destroy the civilised world. It ignored how they were either Enemies (Iran/Iraq) or indifferent to each other (Iran/North Korea), and each worked in isolation of each other. After the "Axis of Evil" Speech they gradually found common Cause, while the Shia Moslems of Iraq gravitated to Tehran. Suddenly they begin to coalesce.

This was shown during the 12 Day War with Israel and Iran, and then America, in 2025 where the years before had seen Iran align itself with bigger players to its north and north east.

The Ukraine War reinforced this and extended it to Russia and China. Suddenly there's a vast Tectonic Plates across the length and breath of Eastern Europe, Siberia, Asia and the far and Middle East. A very dangerous Fault Line appeared in the Persian Gulf, while the Israelis onslaught on Gaza caused another which threatened the Suez Canal.

In the far East and Oceania North Korea reinforced it's Links with Russia and China causing another Fault Line with one of the Worlds biggest Economies Japan and increasing nervousness with the Anzacs. The Indonesian Islands could become a Choke Point between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, while India gradually moves towards their Continental Neighbours.

So how does all this connect with the Films "2012" and "The Day after Tomorrow"?

The former shows what happens when an Earthquake isn't just something that famously struck San Francisco or Turkey and Syria. That it involves the whole Surface of the World which is engulfed in vast Seismic Traumas and Tsunami 1000's of feet high.

That the geopolitical Tremors and Traumas which threaten us now could very quickly spread and engulf the whole World.

The latter shows what happens when a Storm does the same thing and isn't another isolated Hurricane on Americas eastern Seaboard or Carribbean.

So, while a Geologist could use their Craft to interpret Geopolitics so could a Climatologist use Meteorological Charts to do the same thing.

What is particularly ominous is how Jack's Computer generated Model shows huge Storms over where Nuclear War could happen - North America, Europe and Russia. It doubles down when it leads to an Ice Age that could be analogous to a Nuclear Winter.