I'm aghast!!!!!!
While the European Leaders whine about JD Vance's Comments at the Munich Conference have any of them remembered why he is the American Vice President at all?
That, last year the Americans had had enough of the Biden Harris Administration that dragged the World into the Morass the Conference is meant to resolve.
And hasn't the German Chancellor seen the ominous parable of Munich and how Zelenskiy has done exactly what Adolf Hitler did in 1933? He used the Countries Democracy to become it's leader, then abolished it.
And if that wasn't enough, the unelected Dictator of Ukraine seems to want to become the unelected Commander in chief of a "European Army!!!!!!
This will be a Europe fighting a Russia that no longer recognises the INF Treaty and could nuke every City in it with short to medium range Missiles.
How much longer have we got to go along with this Mans delusional insanity?
Any hope that Britain might talk some sense into that 3rd rate Actor were dashed when David Lammy said how Ukraine was "on an irreversible path to joining NATO"!
Has he forgotten why this War started in the first place?
But what a lot of these NATOphiles forget is that a component of the Istanbul Agreement - which would have ended the Ukraine War in April 2022 - was about how other Countries - including Russia - would act as a security Guarantor should neutral Ukraine be threatened by any other.
In other Words, rather like NATO's Article 5 but by another Name, and better, because it does include the Russians, avoiding the confrontational Aspects that caused the Conflict.
But what if the War was different?
Zelenskiy seems so far removed from the Plot he has failed to realise this ......
Even if - and that's a very big, very speculative "IF" and completely hypothetical - Ukraine did prevail and fought the Russians to a Standstill, forcing Moscow to sue for Peace, what would be left of Ukraine to the Ukrainians?
Nothing if all it's natural, mineral, agricultural and manufacturing Wealth has been sold off to the West and most prominently America.
And he would have to continue selling off the Country if the very unlikely happened and he did push the Russians back to pre-2014 and recaptured the Crimea. Every Acre of it all captured would be sold to equip and fund the Ukrainian Forces necessary to do so.
So he, or more accurately the Ukrainian People, would gain nothing.
And to further the Hitler comparison there's a Video showing Zelenskiy with a huge Map on a Table showing where these rare Earth Deposits are - except many of them are now in Russian controlled Areas. He's like Hitler - who would do the same in the Fuhrer Bunker with Maps showing non existent Divisions, saying they should push here, or push there, except they'd been destroyed by the Soviet Armies on the Eastern Front.
And rather like the end of WW2 many of these Deposits are in the Russian controlled Zone like it was what would become Kaliningrad, the Area formerly known as East Prussia, Silesia and East Germany which saw Assets stripped as reparations for the War and taken back to the Soviet Union.
Seeing how the Munich Meeting is taking shape the War could end very similarly too, in how the main Winners won't be the European Powers but America and Russia.
And in that Munich Conference it seems the EU might not be involved in any final Talks to resolve the Conflict.
Ironic considering the EU insisted on excluding the Russians from the EU-Ukraine cooperation Summit in 2013 - which forced Yanukovych to abandon it and led to the Maidan Coup of 2014.
Zelenskiy has caused a Pooh Storm by now refusing to sign over Rare Earth Minerals to the Americans, except he must be suffering from Amnesia after offering those same Minerals to them as long ago as last October.
The thing is, not only was American influence on Maidan probably due to Oil Companies Chevron, Haliburton and Exxon doing exploratory drilling in Ukraine, he must have been very naive if he thought there wouldn't be a Caveat to all this military and financial Aid he's been getting since the Conflict started.
As I've said, he should have ratified the Istanbul Agreement instead, before his Country was wrecked by War, People died and were displaced in their Millions, it's Assets stripped by foreign Concerns, and he was still politically and diplomatically intact.
Quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting.
Why did a 2008 War in the Caucasus involving Russia make it the most dangerous place on Earth and how did it lead to where we are now?
ReplyDeleteIraq was a Warzone, so was Afghanistan, and both were quite dangerous places, but the Georgian Conflict was far more dangerous because it involved a Country that really did have WMD's, and enough of them to incinerate the Earth.
It was also the first tangible indication that things were deteriorating with Moscow. A prequel to the War in Ukraine because of Comments made in Bucharest about potential Georgian membership of NATO earlier that year.
How, given subterfuge in other Regions, and what we have seen in Ukraine and Syria, old Wounds in the Caucasus like those of the Chechen-Ingush People and the forgotten Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh could have been deliberately reopened to escalate the War. Chechens have since been fighting in Syria against Russia's Ally in Damascus, while NATO Turkeys Proxy in Azerbaijan might have been incentivised to recommence Hostilities with Russia's Friend Armenia. Indeed, more recently we have seen exactly that as the Nagorno-Karabakh has been blockaded by Azeri Troops and Armenians surrounded and besieged, violating a Truce brokered by Putin.
And what made the Caucasus so dangerous at that time was how, while everyone was focussed on Iraq and Afghanistan no one seemed to think so.
But it was this that led to where we are now.
It's no coincidence that after falling from Power in Tblisi Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili fled to Ukraine where post Maidan President Petro Poroshenko made him Governor of the Odessa Oblast. In an act of supreme Irony he resigned because of what he cited as Corruption.
But while Leaders meet in Munich to try and resolve the Ukraine Conflict the Problem in Georgia hasn't gone away. A Schism exists in Tblisi Politics as the ruling Georgian Dream Party with it's apparent pro-Russian leanings was at odds with the former President Salome Zourabichvili who openly had NATO and EU Flags on display in her Office. Georgia Dream has invoked criticism from the US and several EU Figures - but how much of that is as much due to the current Narrative as any actual Fact?
Afghanistan ....... again?
ReplyDeleteAt Munich Prime Minister Starmer has said he would send British Troops to Ukraine in a "Peacekeepers" Role. Except President Trump has asked for 50% of the Countries Resources.
The President added that American Soldiers would be sent to guard them.
The problem is, Ukraine has an ultra-Nationalist Community who would deeply resent any foreign Presence on their Soil, let alone one that is there to guard Resources that would otherwise belong to them.
How long would it be before they'd begin asking whether these Anglo-American Troops are there to protect them from the Russians, or those Resources from them?
If they begin to suspect it's the latter they have spent the last 3 years being heavily armed by both America and Britain, along with many other western Countries.
Subsequently, there would be a heavily armed ready made Militia to launch an insurgency against those American and British Soldiers.
This might sound familiar to anyone who remembers what happened in Afghanistan after the Soviet Army left and the Country was strewn with western supplied Weapons to fight them.
And the Weapons in Ukraine are far more sophisticated and powerful than anything that was sent to the Moujehedin during the Afghan-Soviet War.
ReplyDeleteWhile there are many similarities to the fate of Nazi Germany at the end of WW2 there is also one very big difference.
The western Allies presence in West Berlin and West Germany wasn't there to guard any Resources they might have acquired. Berliners and Germans in their Zones saw them as protectors against the Communists on the other side of the Iron Curtain. To this day there are Bases in Rammstein and Wiesbaden.
Also, Marshall Aid ensured indigenous Businesses would start and prosper, which is how Germany began it's journey to becoming as wealthy as it was.
No post-WW2 West Germany Chancellor offered half of the Countries Resources to foreign ownership, while western, then NATO, Forces were deployed to protect western Europe and the North Atlantic, not Resources in either.
Ironically, Ukrainians might start to see any western Military Presence as akin to the Soviet one in East Germany and the Warsaw Pact than what NATO was during the Cold War.
Something I mentioned about a year ago after their treatment by the Government in Kiev was what the Minorities in Western Ukraine might do after the War.
ReplyDeleteIf Ukraine is so broken and moribund it can't even own it's own resources would ethnic Romanians and Hungarians begin wanting to join their Regions to their respective Home Countries? What's to keep them in such a ruined Country - and what would be stopping them?
Might they see themselves as better off in Romania and Hungary than a failed State like Ukraine?
How about Ruthenians and their Relationship with Slovakia?
Would Poland want to reclaim Lvov?
Ironically, what guaranteed the Ukraine's Nationalist Capital against this was Moscow, whose Red Army captured it and made it part of the Ukrainian SSR near the end of WW2.
One test for all this Peace Talk will be if Russia recommences supplying Europe with Fuel and Natural Gas. Or more accurately, if Europe decides to roll back the Sanctions that stopped much of this.
ReplyDeleteIt was these that underwrote the German Economy of the last 30 years, whose "vorsprung durch teknik" underpinned the Value of the Euro - whose Value is attached to the financial Houses of Frankfurt.
Except up to very recently the EU has beaten the Crap out of People like Viktor Orban and Robert Fico for wanting to continue what might left of this arrangement, threatening them with Sanctions. Which Face will Zelenskiy wear at any Negotiations as - last year - he declined to renew the Gas Transit Contract that supplies Slovakia, Czechia, Austria and Hungary?
Will there be an initiative to repair Nordstream after it was destroyed by 'whoever'?
Something like this would have to happen if the Economies of Europe and the UK are to fully recover from the ravages of this Conflict.
The EU has lost a lot of its credibility because of how they very quickly kow towed to the Policies of the previous American Government, and went along with the machinations of the likes of Victoria Nuland before it. So much for being a Bloc that would stand up to more powerful Nations, whose leverage with Countries like America, China and Russia was how it was sold to us.
They're also responsible for some of the current mess anyway, being the People who excluded Russia from the EU-Ukraine Cooperation Talks in 2013. It was this that maybe provided a very good reason for Brexit as we were associated with an Organisation that was steering us on a collision Course with Moscow.
Now, it seems we are being conditioned to believe NATO can defend against Nuclear Weapons.
ReplyDeleteAt least, according to the latest Notification I've received from the Discussion Website Quora.
Except, further research tells me there is no Defence against the latest hypersonic Missiles the Russians have developed since 2018.
So, no NATO doesn't have some impenetrable 'Iron Dome' type Protection against Nuclear Weapons. And even Israel's "Iron Dome" was found wanting against recent Attacks by by Iran, Hezbollah and Houthis with comparatively basic Missiles and Rockets.
People need to remember that it only takes a few Detonations in an Island as small as ours to wreak havoc and Catastrophe, even if some Missiles might be stopped.
The Russians have several hypersonic Weapons they have used in Ukraine which can be made Nuclear Capable.
3M22 Zircon, Avangard, Kinzhal and Oreshnik.
The Zircon can be launched from a Submarine while the Avangard - thought to be the most dangerous - is launched from Land based Platforms, flies at at least Mach 20 and deemed impossible to intercept.
A conspiracy Theorist could argue that America wasn't going to allow itself to be sidelined by a Deal involving Russia, the EU and Ukraine. Some of the biggest Fuel and Mineral extraction companies were in Ukraine for 2 years before the Maidan Coup that someone contrived. There were also the Stories about Hunter Biden's business interests in Ukraine as Maidan happened when his Father was Vice President. Politicians like Lyndsay Graham were adamant that Ukraine's Resources should not be shared with Russia and China so maybe there was a very misguided Notion that a "proxy War" in Ukraine might topple Putin at first.
ReplyDeleteWhen it was obvious that wasn't going to happen America changed tack and now has the Deal it is arranging with Russia.
A Eurosceptic could argue that the EU was supposed to be a Bloc that would stand up to bigger, more powerful Countries on behalf of their smaller Members so why did they know tow to American foreign Policy in 2013-14? Hardly surprising then former President Obama was so keen on the EU when we were having our Brexit Debates.
Yanukovych could argue in 2013 to the EU during the EU-Ukraine Cooperation Summit; " You expect me to exclude the Russians from this, a People we have a 1100 years of shared History and Culture with, for something started in 1952 that even People within it are sceptical of?"
Once News of the Deal struck with Trump, Putin and a reluctant Zelenskiy filters through the Ranks how much longer will the Ukrainian Army fight once they realise they haven't been fighting for Ukraine at all?
How will the EU and Britain recover from their economic woes when it looks like they've now been sidelined? Nearly 3 years of Sanctions, and Russian contingency against them, have lost them a very lucrative Market, and cheap reliable Fuel while America will have first refusal on anything available since.
A conspiracy Theorist could argue that America wasn't going to allow itself to be sidelined by a Deal involving Russia, the EU and Ukraine. Some of the biggest Fuel and Mineral extraction companies were in Ukraine for 2 years before the Maidan Coup that someone contrived. There were also the Stories about Hunter Biden's business interests in Ukraine as Maidan happened when his Father was Vice President. Politicians like Lyndsay Graham were adamant that Ukraine's Resources should not be shared with Russia and China so maybe there was, at first, a very misguided Notion that a "proxy War" in Ukraine might topple Putin.
ReplyDeleteWhen it was obvious that wasn't going to happen America changed tack and now has the Deal it is arranging with Russia.
A Eurosceptic could argue that the EU was supposed to be a Bloc that would stand up to bigger, more powerful Countries on behalf of their smaller Members, so why did they kow tow to American foreign Policy in 2013-14? Hardly surprising then former President Obama was so keen on the EU when we were having our Brexit Debates.
Yanukovych could argue in 2013 to the EU during the EU-Ukraine Cooperation Summit; " You expect me to exclude the Russians from this, a People we have a 1100 years of shared History and Culture with, for something started in 1952 that even People within it are sceptical of?"
Once News of the Deal struck with Trump, Putin and a reluctant Zelenskiy filters through the Ranks how much longer will the Ukrainian Army fight once they realise they haven't been fighting for Ukraine at all?
How will the EU and Britain recover from their economic woes when it looks like it is they who have now been sidelined? Nearly 3 years of Sanctions, and Russian contingency against them, have lost them a very lucrative Market, and cheap reliable Fuel while America will have first refusal on anything available since.
And how about all that Russian Fuel?
ReplyDeleteEveryone has been watching events in eastern Europe and western Russia without looking further east .......... or west ..... if you happen to be in Alaska.
While President Trump negotiates his Deal on Ukraine's Resources with Russia could a time come when he does the same with the Fuel and Gas that used to flow into Europe? That Pipelines start flowing into Alaska across the very narrow Bering Strait that separates Russia far east from America's 49th State instead?
That President Trump could simultaneously exploit the self inflicted Rift the EU has with Russia and revisit the amicable Relationship the US had with Russia in 1867 when it bought the Territory from Tsar Alexander ll?
What could America do with surplus Oil when it produces more of it now than Saudi Arabia?
Sell it to the EU, when he isn't reducing Gas Prices for American Drivers who have seen them increase during the Biden Era. He might be on first name terms with Mr "Tesla" (Elon Musk) but he has voiced much criticism of the Biden Policy to completely replace Internal Combustion powered Cars with E-Vehicles. Obtaining Russian Fuel would help him roll back that Policy and score two big popularity Points in his America First Manifesto.
It also gives him substantial leverage within OPEC as he could control it's Price to the EU - not lost on anyone who has seen other Oil producers lean towards BRICS and away from the Petro Dollar.
America has directly and indirectly gone to War for that very reason, albeit cloaked in other Motives.
Saddam threatened to abandon the Dollar for Iraqi Oil - using the Iraqi Dinar, and Gadaffy was going to use the Libyan Dinar to underwrite the African Union rather than the Petro Dollar.
What the Ukraine Conflict tragically showed was the inability of EU leaders to reconcile what would have been a free trade Area with Ukraine and Ukraine's commitment to a Customs Union with the Russian CIS. How could that have been beyond them to the point where relations with Russia began to disintegrate?
The EU should also be asked why they were conspicuously indiscreet about who they supported during the Maidan Coup in 2014 - however extreme? People completely anathema to their supposedly internationalist Character?
This did nothing to stave off Criticism by Moscow of Nazification.
Zelenskiys Dilemma .....
ReplyDeleteHaving just watched the astonishing Scenes from what some dubbed "the Fight House" between Volodimir Zelenskiy and President Trump and Vice President Vance I can only say this .....
Zelenskiy might well be rather delusional but even he must realise that if he does agree to the Deal which would forfeit what is left of Ukraine's Resources to America he probably couldn't go back to Ukraine for reasons of his own safety. That he would probably be assassinated by other Ukrainians not happy with the arrangement.
In better days (I'm not sure I can say "happier") he faced death threats from ultra-nationalists when he wanted to roll back some of the more russophobic Legislation. This was before the Conflict that started in February 2022.
That he probably also knows that he is now getting in the way of Americas acquisition of those Resources and the Bullet could come from there as they try to find another 'Leader' who would agree to it.
Or he continues the War and loses more to the Russians who are baring down in his Army everywhere along the Front.
And that this will bring in the Armies of the EU and Britain who have taken it on themselves to continue to support him. This is dangerous -particularly as France's Macron has mentioned his Nuclear Weapons.
That even if he did sign the Deal there could be an insurgency by other Ukrainians against any Forces sent by Trump to guard these Resources subsequently controlled by the Americans.
After all, why would they be in Ukraine if a Deal brokered by them exists with the Russians to stop their War against the Ukraine?
Not to protect Ukraine from the Russians.
I wouldn't be Zelenskiy right now - even if he was the last Man in earth.
The Question here is this......
ReplyDeleteIf America withdraws their Support with no Deal and Ukraine suffers a huge Drop in Supplies, causing military collapse on all fronts, would the French use their Nuclear Weapons on Russia?
How about the UK and theirs?
The War has severely weakened a Europe that - even consolidated as the EU - no longer has the leverage it might once have had, either with Russia or America. Sanctions have forced Russia to enact Contingencies against them - finding alternative Markets and creating the Goods they might have otherwise imported. The Russo-German Nordstream Partnership was destroyed and a rift now exists with Moscow that is highly antagonistic.
They've also lost considerable leverage with America as they are now more dependent on American Fuel and Gas than ever, along with the American Market for anything they do make and export.
Trump knows this, with one Hand on the Faucet, the other a Gun called Taxes and Tariffs.
So what options are left for a Europe made so prostrate?
A huge increase on military spending and mobilisation of Reservists, maybe even Conscription, not that they could afford too much of any of this right now.
Then there's the Nuclear deterrent of Britain and France....... which has terrifying Consequences.
Ending the War in Ukraine should be seen like ending WW2.
ReplyDeleteThe Second World War changed the World so much that those in 1945 effectively did have to start again. The former Axis Countries had to be liberalised and reindustrialised, the former allied Countries rebuilt and rejuvenated. Empires were diminished and much of what existed in the 1930's was gone. A fact of Life, like it or not, was the Soviet controlled region of Europe with Stalin having considerable Authority, given the huge sacrifice the Soviets made defeating the Nazis.
What appeared might not have been the fairest or most just Solution, but in the circumstances it was the most workable and viable.
Zelenskiy has to be made to realise his Folly when he rejected the Istanbul Communique in 2022, and how, like the defeated Germans, territories that were once Ukraine are gone. A considerable amount of Blame rests with other western leaders at that time, and before, who encouraged Ukraine to go to War with the Russians.
If America is sincere about ending the War they should not see it as just another Land Grab or acquisition Scheme. Donald Trump should use his Leverage with Russia to bring about a Ceasefire without the crippling Caveat of 50% of Ukraine's Resources. He needs to look at the disaster at the end of WW1 - which imposed completely unaffordable Reparations on Germany and led to 1939. And how Germany and Japan were rehabilitated after WW2 to become quintessentially successful liberal democracies with very viable economies.
By imposing the Caveat he makes it even more difficult for any Ukrainian Leader to sell the Deal to a People who have fought and died in their thousands for what they do have.
He needs to be more Marshall and MacArthur than those Figures of 1918. There were those at the end of WW1 who warned against what was being proposed in Paris, but they were never heeded.
This War needs to be ended, and ended now. Anything that might come after is purely abstract if it isn't, and any of it isn't worth anything if we are all dead.
It took a Nuclear Strike to end WW2 and bring the World to make the Choices it did make in 1945. Let's hope it won't come to that in 2025, because any Nuclear Conflict now won't be restricted to a few Kilotons and 2 Bombs in the far east.
And even if Ukraine was regarded like it was a WW2 Ally and Zelenskiy was the Chuchilian Character some tried portraying him as imagine if Roosevelt and Truman had imposed a 50% Share of our Resources to pay for Lend Lease in WW2.
ReplyDeleteNot just that, but also made it repayable in 1945 rather than up to the last Lend Lease installment of £43 Million paid in 2006.
What would that have done to us economically and politically?
Clement Atlee, with his electoral Mandate, couldn't even have sold that to a War weary British who hadn't been invaded and whose Economy was in better shape in 1945 than a Ukraine whose Leader has questionable popularity, is not only War weary but was also invaded, and whose Economy is in tatters.
ReplyDeleteTrump and Vance would find it very difficult to find a Ukrainian Leader who could, or at least one that could rule from Kiev.
Here's a Comment I posted on a YouTube Video about France and the rest of the EU including Britain's recent, and very alarming Moves in the last 48 Hours......
ReplyDelete"Has anyone remembered how Russia has had to fight for every Mile of Ukraine and for 3 very long years? So, how are we to believe they might continue into the rest of Europe? It's not like they have blitzkrieged their way through Ukraine like it was France in 1940.
Aren't People getting weary of all this scaremongering?
It should also be remembered that Europe and Britain are looking for ways to boost their Economies, so could be using War as a way of doing it, seeing their civilian Trade with the rest of the World diminish."
As you can see, I'm rather sceptical of it all.
My Point being that Russia hasn't just cut through Ukraine like a hot Knife through Butter, even with support from Iran and North Korea, so how might they continue to march all the way to Portugal?
And that Europe is desperate to compensate for it's losses in civilian economics and is using the War as a pretext to boost it's Economy with increased military spending.
And on the Subject of spending.....
If America applied a Marshall Aid type Program to Ukraine instead of what many have seen as a huge Resource acquisition reminiscent of Reparations inflicted on 1918 Germany, they could do it along with a process of denazification.
Marshall Aid was given to Countries after WW2 to rehabilitate them and prevent them going communist, so why couldn't it be applied to Ukraine to prevent them becoming fascist?
If they could give Moscow assurances they would do this, like they did in Germany from 1947 to 1949, it might help garner trust in Russia.
Also, some have commented on how, during that very tense Press Conference the other day, it was a relief Trump and Vance didn't press Zelenskiy on why he turned down the Istanbul Communique in 2022?
Why? Maybe they should. After all the 100's of Millions of People everywhere whose Governments have been supporting Ukraine, with all the unintended Consequences thereafter, have a right to know why Zelenskiy chose to continue the War?
Particularly as it could very quickly turn Nuclear - with everything that means.
If Zelenskiy was going to use the Situation to try and lobby the President to an Audience of Millions then that Audience also has a right to know how he might justify his Decision 3 years ago.
Maybe they should also have asked about the various Minsk Accords that have now been consigned to diplomatic history.
Meanwhile, a retired German General made a valid Point in a recent Seminar apparently meant to defuse the Scaremonger Arguement that Russia always intended to capture all of Ukraine and then advance into eastern Europe.
ReplyDeleteUkraine is the biggest Country in the Region - apart from Russia itself - and considerably bigger than what used to be the GDR or East Germany. The Soviets garrisoned 300,000 Soldiers in GDR - and that doesn't include the large East Germany Army in support.
So how, with only 190,000 Troops in February 2022, was Russia going to invade and occupy a Country as big as Ukraine? A Country seething with hostiles and no Army in support?
Even more inconceivable would be a continuation into the rest of Europe.
There's a Story circulating the Mill that Plans exist to repair and reopen Nordstream 2.
ReplyDeleteUntil it was destroyed in September 2022 the Pipeline supplied Germany with millions of cubic Meters of natural Gas. It's destruction wrought havoc on the German Economy - which had ramifications for the rest of Europe.
The subsequent enquiry was very dubious, yielding all sorts of supposed 'Conclusions' as to who was responsible.
The current Plan is to revive it with substantial investment by America.
But would this work and have what some hope is the desired effect of also reviving the sagging European Economy?
I'm not sure it will, being just more of the same as Europe is increasingly dependant on America for its Fuel and Gas.
It would if the EU had petitioned Russia to do this instead, something I was hoping for quite a while ago.
The current plan means there would have to be considerable Markup on the Price of Fuel to satisfy American Investors.
And who might they be?
The same Companies who were doing exploratory Work in Ukraine a year before the 2014 Coup perhaps?
As with any subterfuge, obscured in the Mists of Intrigue: sometimes you have to ask.....
Who benefits most from it?
A Conspiracy Theorist might argue that America coveted Nordstream 2 all the time, so destroyed it to end the Russo-German Partnership that controlled it, and now wants to reopen it for themselves.
As yet the Russians haven't confirmed any of this will be happening, or even if it's ever been considered at their end, so it's just Speculation at this stage.
ReplyDeleteBut if it was confirmed, or even just mooted as an Idea, it could prove counterproductive to any Notion of "Peace through Trade", and somewhat skewed and inconsistent.
ReplyDeleteIf the Americans did collaborate with the Russians to reopen Nordstream it could be seen in Europe as further undermining their Sovereignty and independence, either as individual Countries or the EU, and galvanise their Stance with a Ukraine they have very recently pledged to continue supporting.
Despite what might be coming from Washington.
While a very wide and toxic Rift now exists between Europe and Russia, which includes once neutral Scandinavia and Britain, one is also growing with America.
This Idea would do nothing to assuage that and there are already murmurings of a break with the US.
This means any Action from Europe will be at odds with any from America, widening that particular Rift and deepen European involvement in the Ukraine War.
Which means it is no longer a "Proxy War" and becomes a direct Conflict between them and Russia - with potentially terrifying consequences.
So, rather than ending the Conflict as Trump claims it could actually make it far worse.
And given the Weapons involved, of which Britain and France has about 500, he won't be like Roosevelt in the White House, 1000's of miles away from the Wars in Asia and Europe before Pearl Harbour, or Wilson before him pre-1917.
It's also skewed and inconsistent because the Policy that led to it was going to end with a War with Russia.
Even Americas own Diplomatic and Intelligence Communities were warning about this as long ago as the 1990's.
So it isn't like they didn't know it could happen, which doesn't sound very peaceful to anyone!
So, is the Trump Plan like the Marshall Plan?
ReplyDeleteNot really, because even looked at skeptically and less altruistically the Marshall Plan was meant to rehabilitate European Economies after WW2 so post-War America could sell Goods to them.
How can that happen if those same Economies are kept weak and sidelined?
And if this apparent Scheme to revive Nordstream happened it would mean America buys Fuel from Russia wholesale and sells it on to Europe retail. This would make Euro Economies less competitive because of the added Costs in Manufacturing and Distribution.
Something that didn't apply before .
Particularly if Trump uses Taxes and Tariffs as weapons against them.
So, no - what all this means is not like what happened during the late 1940's.
It's Ok, - it's only a limited Nuclear War.......
ReplyDeleteBut is it?
Americans and others on the American Continent might think a 'limited' Nuclear War in Europe wouldn't affect them, like it was WW1 and 2, but here's what experts believe a Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan - involving half of those Weapons Britain and France could use against Russia - would do to the rest of the World......
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2020/03/16/even-limited-india-pakistan-nuclear-war-would-bring-global-famine/
As you can see, those 5000 Miles might have made all the difference during conventional War - even as ferocious as some like Stalingrad or those strategic bombings of British, European and Japanese Cities - but won't protect them if it goes Nuclear.
And, if course that doesn't include the Weapons Russia would use on Britain and Europe.
And if this Nordstream revival goes ahead it shows I was at least half right when I said Trump could do a Deal with Putin that would see a Pipeline sending Fuel to Alaska - where America, who has bought it at wholesale price then sells and ships it to Europe.
ReplyDeleteAn American revived Nordstream would be about the same, except it is sent directly to Europe.
Meanwhile, should we put some of these YouTube commentators in context?
Scott Ritter went on a diatribe, accusing all Europeans of being bloodthirsty Warmongers.
Surely, the Man whose Name became famous during the Iraq War preparations must remember how some European Leaders dared to stand up to GWB? The most prominent was French President Jacques Chirac who got a pummelling for doing so and France was treated like a Pariah.
Then there's Jeffrey Sachs.
If this Man has had such an influence on World Leaders then why doesn't he seem to have influenced any of them at all so they wouldn't have done what they have in recent years?
Then there's Douglas MacGregor.
I was quite surprised when I heard him slagging off our RAF like it was not much more than a few Aircraft and Helicopters. I was surprised because I thought he might be a bit more considered, and while I admit the RAF isn't the vast number of Planes and People it might once have been, it is by no means a spent force and does not deserve the sort of drubbing he has given it of late.
There are others, and while they might give you the minutae of this or that many of them seem to ignore the Nuances of cause and effect that happens in these things.
And before any of them indulge in another round of European bashing maybe all of them should remember that Europe, Scandinavia and to a lesser extent Britain are on the Front lines of a Conflict that was of the Americans making. That they are now left with the mess former President Biden left when his Term ended.
And Donald Trump had 4 years to roll back some of the Policies on Ukraine his predecessor created.
Some of those I feel sorry for most are the Finns and the Swedes who shared Borders with Russia for decades with no problems whatsoever - until America came along and messed it up for them.
ReplyDeleteSomething suspect skulking around the apparent anti-War Narrative is how they've conveniently changed tack and now tell us NATO sabotaged the Istanbul Communique. Which is a convenient deniability and makes no one accountable by blaming a nebulous Organisation rather than any actual Leaders.
Also, closer to home what if we joined the Dots and connected some of these supposed Peacemongers to what has been happening here in the years since the Iraq War started, some of it not very peaceful?
One thing is certain, we've had YouTube for almost the entire Duration and it's Soundbite Diplomacy hasn't prevented anything.
I wasn't aware of any anti-War rallies in the Poacher Car park a few years ago for example!
ReplyDeleteI hope not, because it's been 32 years of those sort of People who've made a horses arse of everything. When we were active that Clock was at 17 Minutes to Midnight. After those Idiots took over it's now at 89 Seconds.
Meanwhile, maybe Jacques Chirac's People should write to Scott Ritter reminding him of the Iraq War Debacle, signing the Letter "Love and Peace, A bloodthirsty Warmonger"
Quote/unquote.
Perhaps the RAF should contact Colonel MacGregor with an Intinary of the Aircraft they do have.
32 years of those culturally Apartheidist Cronyists and they can't blame those "olds".
ReplyDeleteMost of them are now in their early 50's. That's 8-10 years older than JFK when he was President and 15 years older than his brother was as Attorney General.
In 1989-90 the Clock was at 10 Minutes, which went all the way up to 17 Minutes the year after.
32 years of them and it's now 89 Seconds!
Don't get me wrong here .....
ReplyDeleteI'm all for Trump ending the War and renewing Diplomacy with Russia. After 3 years of Neglect Diplomacy with Moscow should never have stopped and might have helped prevent things becoming as bad as they are.
It's this huge appropriation of Resources - some of it way beyond the Borders of Ukraine - that could be very damaging and casts doubt on the Sincerity of its motives.
Now, it seems Polish President Donald Tusk has decided to add to the Russophobic Rhetoric.
ReplyDeleteThis, along with others is a tired Narrative that lost its believability in its own inconsistency.
One moment we are told how little Ukraine is giving the big bad Bear a drubbing, that Russia is compromised by its own Corruption and Incompetence, the next that they are going to march all the way to Portugal.
Given that the Soviet Union needed 300,000 Troops just to garrison East Germany, supported by the GDR's own armed forces, while this was reflected throughout the Warsaw Pact, and how the Army it has now has to fight a War of attrition in Ukraine rather than a blitzkrieg through it, how would they have the necessary force to invade and occupy Europe? Because that is how you defeat an Enemy and Russia does not have that.
Is a lot of this fearmongering because these Leaders have stuffed the civilian economy with their misguided "proxy War" in Ukraine, Sanctions that have backfired, and spiralling trade deficits so have to compensate for it with increased military spending?
Civilian Companies can't trade so sell a War and fund military ones?
And let's clear up an inaccuracy in the Narrative here .....
ReplyDeleteDuring the Cold War Americas presence in Europe wasn't all one way.
That they somehow provided the Shield against the Warsaw Pact should they decide to invade.
Those might have been American Troops and Assets but those other things were our Cities and Towns .......and our Civilians ........ who would have been destroyed and killed in the Conflict. The Set up meant that any War would be fought in Europe and not in America, even if any provocation against the WP and USSR was exclusively American.
Otherwise, any Soviet Missiles would have been fired at American Cities and Towns ...... and American Civilians.
The Munro Doctrine ensured against any destruction being wrought on America at all, unless anyone might have the temerity to win a Latin American Election as a Socialist or Khrushchev put Missiles in Cuba of course.
So let's not allow ourselves be led to believe that the American presence in Europe was purely for our benefit, and completely benificent.
And 9/11 finally revealed Decades of American Hypocrisy .......
ReplyDeleteThat might have been the World Trade Center .....
But it could also have been the King David Hotel in Jerusalem, the Brighton Bomb, Enniskillen and a plethora of other American backed Terrorist Incidents in many years.
Except 9/11 horribly showed Americans what Terrorism does - and had been doing - for years elsewhere. So the Munro Doctrine applied to that too - until 2001.
They certainly have with Ukraine.
They knew, that unless pushed to the very edge Russia would not fire ICBM's at America because that would invoke M.A.D and the World is destroyed. But they might, at a push, fire a few conventional Weapons at European Targets. So while the likes of Biden, Harris, Blinken, Nuland ..... and Hillary's Mob .... stir up the War and the Military Companies reap the Profits, they did so knowing that not a single Russian Missile would hit America. They would fight to the very last European.
Meanwhile, I think they've been running a very elaborate and expensive Protection Racket with the World and particularly us since 2014.
A bunch of Hoodlums come along and smash up your Shop. This happens several times.
While you're clearing up the Mess for the umpteenth time someone arrives and looks at the devastation and says calmly and reasonably; "This is awful. Look, pay me £50 a Week and this won't happen again!"
Relieved you give them the Money and they go in their way.
Then one day you're walking past a Side Street and you see the Hoodlums and your calm reasonable Visitor all looking very friendly, celebrating with the Money you just gave him.
One hopes that Trumps Friends in Wall Street don't invest in those same Companies don't we!
The Impression we're given is America is divided into 2 Camps.
ReplyDeleteThere's the pro-War Biden/Clinton Axis and all their Cronies and Associates, and the anti-War Trump Group who are absolutely none of what the others are.
Except, if someone was to profile everyone in each they'd probably find quite a few Overlaps, particularly with investment Portfolio's.
Nordstream 2 wouldn't need American Investment to reopen it if it hadn't been blown up in the first place by 'whoever', while no one would be meeting in Riyadh if People like Victoria Nuland etc had acted differently in 2013/14.
Among some of the other Smirkers and Gloaters on YouTube who gleefully tell us about the impending collapse of Britain, Europe and Scandinavia are former Fox News Anchors - who seem to forget that they were at the forefront of the pro-Iraq War propaganda Campaign.
Another who now seems to delight in slagging off our RAF has also forgotten that he was the Chief of Staff to Colin Powell when he did his WMD conjuring Show to the UN Security Council.
What was it someone said about the Americans; "the United States of Amnesia"?
Some Alliance huh, if this is what they really thought of us, and maybe they should be made to watch the WW2 Information Film "Know your Ally".
So some of the Shambles that afflicts us now can be traced back to some of these People as Colin Powell lied to the UN so America could drag us into their Neocon War in Iraq, with the ripple effect it had elsewhere.
I'd be interested to know what Larry Wilkerson might say when asked about Chirac's Stance against the Iraq War his Boss and his Office campaigned for in 2001-3!
I'd also remind Tulsi Gabbard that our RAF were also in the firing line during "Operation Iraqi Freedom", and not just American Servicemen and Women.
Do they realise how offensive and odious they sound when they talk glibly about something that could devastate and end the Lives of 100's of Millions?
What World are they living in which seems to mean none of it would affect them?
The latest is how Macron wants to use French Nuclear Missiles to shield Europe, except the above applies here too and he wouldn't be pointing them at anyone if those usual suspects had backed off.
Let's not also forget that - whatever anyone might say of him now - Macron worked hard to broker an end to this Crisis before it started with his shuttle Diplomacy between Moscow and Kiev.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/02/07/europe/ukraine-russia-news-monday-intl
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220307-macron-bucks-western-trend-by-keeping-dialogue-open-with-putin
Boris Johnson might have talked Zelenskiy out of the Istanbul Communique, but he did so on behalf of Joe Biden.
So, thanks to American meddling and interference Europe is now ablaze with bitter acrimonies that had either subsided years ago, or have been caused by the last 3 years of American Foreign Policy. Poland's old Grievance with Russia was history as both got on with their Lives until all this. 1812 and the Napoleonic Wars were the Stuff of Classical Music and History Books - while no one would have thought those German Tanks would have rolled into Russia again.
Other Areas that have been turned into Hornets Nests - or potential ones - by the American led Crisis.....
ReplyDeleteBaltic Nationalism - which had begun to subside - has reopened, with WW2 Soviet Monuments being desecrated in Latvia, Romanians and ethnic Russians in Transnistria and Moldova, rediscovering the War of 1991, the difficult ethnic tensions in the Carpathians - caused as the American sponsored Government in Kiev turned them into 2nd class Citizens. The now fractious Borders Sweden and Finland have with Russia and the reopened Crisis of Nagorno-Karabakh.
If Trump isn't careful he could look to the Europeans like Richard Nixon must have looked to the Indo-Chinese about to suffer the Ravages of what came after his "Strategic Withdrawal" from the Region.
None of any of this is helped by Celebrity Soundbite Politics .....
ReplyDeleteThe latest I've heard from Decades of the same old tired and tested Rhetoric of the supposed Opposition came from Roger Waters.....
The former Pink Floyd Songwriter told a Podcast recently "Balfour was a rabid Anti-Semite"
Hmm??????
If him, and the likes of didn't hide on Mount Celebrity I'd love to ask him how and why he justifies that!
Meanwhile, and I'm sure Roger the informed must have seen the recent Interview Sergei Lavrov gave to Tucker Carlson, we hear the Russian Foreign Minister say how after Nordstream and other Fuel Supplies were shut down by Bombs and Sanctions Europe will pay triple Rates for their LNG.
ReplyDeleteHow this will make them uncompetitive against America and other Markets.
The Interview also featured his Account of what happened during the 2013 Negotiations of the EU- Ukraine Association Agreement.
If Roger wants to debate those Years during and after the Balfour Declaration and what happened in Palestine up to and including 1948 we'll call it the Cambridge Reunion!
ReplyDeleteAnd when I say Roger - I mean Roger Waters - not any lookalikes or Proxies he might have here like some impenetrable Wall of Chess Pieces.
ReplyDeleteDuring those 10 years I spent in Cambridgeshire I remember those Join-the-Dots Books they used to give me.
Very useful Educational Tool for later on in Life!
Seeing what has happened in recent Days I'm wondering if it's actually worse than it was before.
ReplyDeleteIf that was possible.
That Trump merely wants to disengage with Ukraine and Europe so he can regroup America to begin Work in the South China Sea and China. When he does Europe will continue the War, irrespective of America, so the War doesn't end and just spreads.
This and the Presidents recent comments on the Middle East. That he could even ramp up the Offensive on Gaza with more direct US assistance to Israel.
And, given that the Euro is about equal to the USD what exactly is this 800 Billion Euro spending Package Ursula Von de Leyen announced going to be used for, and where, if Chinas annual defence Budget is only $246 Billion? Particularly if China and Russia could outstrip NATO Weapons Manufacturing by 3x?
ReplyDeleteWill the EU and Britain massively ramp up their Defence Industries to supply the Demand?
The Money will be used during a 4 year period which means the EU and Britain will spend 3 times per capita than the Chinese every year as the Population of the EU and Britain is 1/3rd that of China.