Syria, North Korea ............. Anywhere else?

I posted some updates in a Post I wrote about the escalation of War in the Levant a few years ago. This was a compendium of Comments Id made on the Subject elsewhere on the Internet a few years earlier.

Such is the Gravitas that is happening as Conflict spreads like a Contagion I decided to create this so you could read recent Comments here.

 As Reports emerge that Syrian Leader Bashar Assad has fled to Moscow after he was toppled by HTS the Future for Syria looks very uncertain and maybe even very bleak.

One only has to see what happened in Iraq after Saddam was deposed, which went through several Civil Wars - including the establishment of Islamic State in Cities like Mosul and Fallujah, and this was with the large presence of Coalition Forces.

What this means for the myriad Groups who fought the Regime in Syria now that Regime has apparently gone is as yet unknown. The only thing unifying them was their War against it, while there have been skirmishes and conflicts between them.

Kurds under Massoud Barzani fought to protect non-Sunni Minorities and Christians from Islamist Forces, and against the SNA (Syrian National Army) backed by Turkey. Supposedly moderate Free Syrian Army Soldiers gradually became part of the Islamist Factions and other Forces have been at work with/against each other during the Civil War.

Assad himself guaranteed Protection to all Citizens in the Country.

As the Kurds will probably have to concentrate guarding against the Insurgents, particularly any backed by Turkey, and Assad has gone can we trust HTS who tell us they have changed and are no longer the Al Qaida/IS People they were?

And how about the remnants of the Syrian Army?

Will they just down Guns and go home, or will they form up yet another Faction in the fractured Country that was Syria?

How long could HTS maintain what they claim will be a 'moderate' Regime if Insurgents start turning on them, and how will this further brutalise those involved?

This isn't a western backed Government like Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan after the Taliban was defeated, while there are Rival players in the Region, each with their Proxies in a Syria that has no actual Leadership. Iran would back the Remnants of the Army and Syrian Hezbollah while Turkey and others support those opposed to these.

And how might any of this look to a People who saw and even fought a "War on Terrorism" since 2001, only to see an offshoot of Al Qaida seize Power in Damascus?

As all this goes on Syria itself and the Region generally might conclude they were better off with Assad!

I think some People are being dangerously naïve if they believe post-Assad Syria will begin towards Human Rights and open Society.

The SNA had committed terrible Crimes against Kurds in northern Syria - including the public Murder of Kurdish Politician Hevrin Khalaf. The UN have cited many instances of Rape, Murder, Kidnappings and Theft by them against Kurds.

Yazidis fled from them to Kurdish Regions in their 1000's.

Others, including Islamists, used Chemical Weapons in a false Flag Attack that was blamed on the Government - while all will vie for Influence in the Ruins of what remains of the Country.

There's very little difference between some of them and those we saw in Iraq conducting public Executions of Iraqi Soldiers during the Camp Speicher Massacre and dozens of Mutilations in the Streets of Mosul.

Do they assume Hayat Tahrir Al Sham or their Leader Abu Mohammed Al Jolani will call free and fair Elections if or when things settle down?

As I said, these aren't even the likes of Ahmed Chalabi in Iraq or Hamid Kharzai in Afghanistan, while HTS have been dubbed a Terrorist Organisation.

They are also committed against Kurdish YPG or Peoples Defences Units Forces, supported by Western Governments - who want a federal secular Country rather than an islamist Caliphate.

Also, how open will they be to Shi'ite Moslems who they deem as heretical?

So, Syria won't suddenly become a cute and cuddly Bastion of Peace and liberal Democracy now the Assad Regime has gone, while there will be those from the Regime who will probably form yet another Militia in the huge network of Fighters there, supported by former Ba'athist Party Members.

Now that Regime has gone there's nothing stopping any of the above committing further and even worse Atrocities than those done during the years long Civil War.

And what makes it worse is how any former Government Weapons and Materiel has fallen into the Hands of who knows what in the subsequent free-for-all!

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You ain't seen nothing yet......

As the West loses it's Stomach for War - particularly after the humiliating Rout in Afghanistan and the "War on Terrorism" Rhetoric long outstayed it's welcome years ago, what might things be like now Al Qaida 2 seems to have seized Control in Syria?

One thing is certain, they now have access to equipment once owned by the most heavily armed Force in the Arab World. Second only to Saddam before he was deposed.

Then, what if they decide to export their form of Wahhabism to the rest of the World? That Syria becomes the new Afghanistan, but with far more Weapons, for any Terror Group that makes Osama look tame in comparison?

Anyone remember what happened after a former Western (read American) Proxy went rogue and flew Planes into Buildings? They fought the Soviets, HTS fought the Russian's Ally in Damascus, then what happens?

If we did have another '9/11' how could the Politicians sell the response to us after the last Go-Round?

And if that happened how many more Civil Liberties will be eroded by yet another Patriot Act, and then another?

America is about to have a President who is known for potential Authoritarianism and disdain for Civil Liberties. A President who faces very little Opposition that could effectively curb some of his wider excesses.

How many more Patriot Acts will we see?

Also, as reported, Executions are already starting in Syria despite Jolani's reassurances, what will happen there as 1000''s then millions try to flee? Who is going to invest in a Country with that sort of Leadership and rescue it's shattered Economy, rebuild it's ruined Infrastructure and reapply essential services?

These are all very good reasons to ask if Syria and the World that will feel the Ramifications of it is better off without Assad - or is the euphoria at his demise very misguided

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Has the Leopard changed his Spots?

If Reports are true and Scenes reminiscent of what happened in Iraq are repeated as I write then maybe not. Allegations circulate that before they mounted their Insurgency HTS - who ran an Enclave in the Idlib Province - administered public Stoning's of Women for Adultery while the whole War has seen Excesses that were even worse than the darker days of the Taliban.

And what if he appears too friendly to the West and even Israel?

President elect Trump has made no Secret that he covets Syrian Oil in the resource rich eastern region of the Country. How will it sit with Jolani's Peers and those opposed to him if that Region becomes an American Colony? During the War it was always possible it would be returned to full Syrian control. What if that no longer applies?

How about the Israelis, and if they decide to settle into Syria beyond the Golan Heights? The Heights has been contentious enough since they were captured in 1967. How long will Jolani last if he does nothing to prevent it?

Then there's the Turkish occupation of the Region on its Border. Will they withdraw or will they decide to cash in on their Support of the SNA and keep it? Kurds in the Region must be very apprehensive about any of that after what they were subjected to.

Syria enjoyed considerable regional Influence for a very long time and I can't imagine many Syrians would be prepared to give any of that up to other Players in it or western Proxies.

And if, in Assad's absence, the Country is off limits to Russia and Iran who will sponsor the Countries physical, fiscal and economic rehabilitation after more than 10 years of War?

And if Israel doesn't think Syria is more dangerous after Assad was toppled why have they done what they never did during the whole Assad Era .....?

Bomb all Syrian Military Assets, or at least those they could get to.

They never did anything as all encompassing as they did a few Days ago.

So they obviously know that these who have replaced Assad would have been far too dangerous if they had access to the same Equipment Assad's once powerful Army used.

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More airbrushing of History .......?

Rather like all the post 2014 reports of Azov Excesses in Ukraine including Human Rights Articles about their Treatment of ethnic Russians, and the general Narrative about neo-Nazis in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Reports of the many 1000's killed and displaced by Islamist Rebels and Turkish backed Forces in Syria before Assad was toppled seem to have disappeared.

Now we are being fed a continuous Narrative that every Death, Injury and Injustice was firmly the fault of the former Regime.

This is completely wrong and as inaccurate as saying the same things in Iraqi Cities like Mosul and Fallujah were done by Saddam. Not that either Dictator was a Bastion of liberal Democracy - because they weren't - but then, neither are many of those who choose to replace them.

Syria's interim Prime Minister has announced there won't be Elections in Syria probably for another 18 Months, and as we have seen, a lot can happen in that time. Including positing the necessary People in all the crucial Posts before hand.

Any innocence of spontaneity we might see now will completely disappear in that time.

And while a lot can happen in Syria in that year and a half - one of those is Civil War, which could very easily happen as the anti-Assad Unity fades and each player - and their Sponsors jostle for influence in the new Syria. Afghanistan collapsed into terrible Civil War after the Soviets left and it wasn't until the Taliban seized Power it ended. The most powerful Faction in Syria is the HTS - who are just revamped Al Qaida, so will we begin seeing the same thing in Syria we saw in Afghanistan in the late 1980's?

And with a similar Conclusion?

That those who end up running Syria won't be western backed Rebels, rather like those who ended up running Afghanistan in the 1990's.

Whatever happens in Syria now won't be attributed to Assad who is currently in exile in Moscow. Every incident now will be done to, and by, the Rebels who now run the Country.

I'm wondering how much of this will be reported as we are sold a Syria that isn't like the one the Assad Family ran.

Except he can watch all this go on in a Country during his absence!

And while he can now say; "I didn't do it" from Moscow how - I wonder - did these 'Rebels' feel when Israel promptly set out to destroy most of their Equipment (otherwise being the captured Spoils of War) and indulged in a Land Grab of Areas east of the Golan Heights?

How does that look to anyone asking what the Motive for any western Support might have been?

What becomes of the Millions of Refugees who are spread the length and breadth of Europe, Scandinavia, Arabia and North Africa?

Refugees who didn't flee Assad, but fled what came after 2011! They lived in Syria for hundreds of years before then.

And while, it seems, even Israel regards the new Forces that prevail in Syria as more dangerous than Assad to the point where they felt they had to destroy captured Syrian Military Assets rather than let them be used by the likes of HTS there are other things that might not be quite as certain now.

Those 1980's Beirut Hostages who didn't come home via Cyprus did so via Hafez Assad's Syria.

They would be handed to Syrian backed Lebanese Militia (usually Amal) before being given to Syrian Officials - who would then take them to Damascus.

They didn't come home via Israel, while there's very little chance they would so via the new Syria.

Also, during the 1990/1 Gulf War SAS Soldiers who had been operating deep inside Iraq had suffered Casualties through Firefights, Injuries and the Cold Weather before making it to the Syrian Border. After asking a Goat Herder where they were and learning they were in Syria they knew their Ordeal was over.

Could they say that now?

While Executions of Assad's Henchmen began a few days ago will they be restricted to these or extended to others? Ba'ath Party Members, Iranian Officials, Supporters of Hezbollah, Kurds who happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, Shia and Alawite Moslems? Anyone else who doesn't comply with their Doctrine?

Then there's the Betrayal that will be felt by those Syrians who supported HTS, only to see yet more Land appropriated by Israel. Something that didn't happen during the Assad Era.

So, what might happen in the 18 Months Syria's interim Prime Minister said would elapse before any Elections?

As there is potential for all sorts of manoeuvring's and subterfuge the Euphoria will fade very quickly if it wasn't misguided to start with.

Then, what happens if host Governments decide to repatriate the millions of Refugees who fled the Country during the Civil War, who had otherwise lived in Syria for 100's of years before?

What will they be going back to, and just how welcome would they be by the new Regime after spending so long in the West?

And those Millions of Refugees who fled Syria didn't flee Assad, many had lived there for Decades during that Era, and they fled the War. They aren't Wahabi'ists or other forms of Extremists, but regular Syrians whose Lives had been destroyed by Conflict. How much of those Lives would still exist if they returned to Syria, and how much of the Country and Society would they at all recognise?

Of anyone who should understand this it ought to be a People whose Lives and Villages across eastern and central Europe were erased by WW2, but how many descendants of the Ashkenazim Diaspora empathise with the Plight of those Syrian Refugees?

Or are they merely replacing one Diaspora with another?

Also, if Money and Resources sent to Ukraine so Kiev could fight Russia was funnelled into Syria to train and equip the HTS War against Assad's Government isn't that constitutionally illegal? That the American Legislature passed Laws allowing it be sent to Ukraine - not Syrian Rebels?

Shouldn't someone be asking this on Capitol Hill?

Any Legislator or Representative worth their Constituents on Capital Hill, and maybe those in Westminster, and other western Countries who have sent Weapons and Resources to Ukraine should be asking why some of those things ended up in Syria.

It was discovered that some had even wound up in Kosovo, and a poignant Question to those who sent them, and even Zelenskiy, is whether there's an Intention to spread the War into Syria and maybe even Serbia? There were increasingly anxious Reports about a year and a half ago about manoeuvring's in the Balkans by NATO Countries anathema to Serbia's Interests.

Is Ukraine a sort of distribution Hub to other Forces at War (actual or potential) with Russia's Partners and Allies?

The proverbial "Guns of August" where Barbara Tuchman shows the causes and effects, alliances and enmities, that led to WW1 being played out again for yet another World War?

It's like those Lunatics in Seoul who staged a Coup and Martial Law in South Korea earlier this Month. Some speculated they were trying to provoke a "local War" with the North. President Yoon acting like a sort of 21st Century Joseph McCarthy, accusing members of his and other Political Parties, of being infiltrators by the North. The old Cold War era Paranoia revisited.

Given the current geopolitical Climate any "local War" with North Korea wouldn't remain "local" for very long .......... and wouldn't remain a conventional one either.

Zelenskiy - who has also staged a Coup by cancelling Elections in May this year - did something similar with his Politicians and those of the Opposition, the Military and even the Orthodox Church on suspicion of being Russian Agents. Even People who took part in the Istanbul Negotiations fell under similar Suspicion and died, disappeared or were imprisoned.

Any Journalist working in Washington should ask how Resources sent to Ukraine ended up in west Asia and the Balkans.

Ukrainian Corruption - one of the worst in the World - and it's Reputation for Black Market Activity does give People very plausible Deniability.

"Oh, those Weapons ended up in Kosovo because of Ukrainian Corruption" provides a convenient Veil to anyone wanting to equip a People for some future War with Serbia.

The War in Ukraine merely adds to it by distracting Attention from what was happening in Syria a couple of Weeks ago - and the months before - when HTS prepared for, then launched, their Offensive against Syrian Government Forces.

And the Ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel was another Smokescreen as the Offensive was being planned and executed. The Conflict was merely transferred elsewhere, but with a similar Result.

Hezbollah have lost a crucial logistics Conduit of Support while Lebanon - already reeling from the recent Hezbollah War with Israel - now has to deal with 10's of 1000's of Syrian Refugees and guard it's Border against potential HTS Incursion. This could cause it to collapse completely.

So, is Ukraine merely a Hub of supply and support to any anti-Sino/Russian Axis? A Conduit to spread the forever War?

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A Korean Conflict - the War that could break the Worlds Back .....

Since the Nuclear Arms race began - or at least not long after - it was always agreed that each Nuclear Power would notify the other of a scheduled Test - which might be either a Launch or Detonation. The idea being to avoid the Risk of a retaliatory response by one if they mistook a Test by the other to be an actual Strike.

But despite this, there have been many near misses with what is dubbed a close Call. This could be prompted by an encounter between Aircraft, one of which might be nuclear capable, the Soviet Submarine that was moments away from firing a Nuclear Torpedo in 1962, a malfunction in either sides Detection equipment, and even someone mistaking a training Video for the real thing.

Here is a chronology showing you many examples of all of these and some ....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_close_calls

And this is with comparatively stable, communicative Governments, with firmly established procedures.

But what about North Korea - who don't notify anyone of any impending Test? They have fired many Missiles in Test scenarios in close proximity to Japan, South Korea and even Alaska.

What if President Yoon did get his War with the North earlier this Month and Pyon Yang chose to do yet another Test during it?

With the increased tension in the Region and US military gradually becoming an omnipresence - particularly in the China Sea and Philippines - what would the Response have been once it had been detected? They would have just a few Minutes to react before they would be destroyed, so there is a very narrow margin of Error.

Like the interactions, alliances and enmities of those "Guns of August" each would have their Allies and Proxies who would feel obliged to join in in support - particularly as both Ukraine and west Asia are already on the boil.

And if there were attempts at pressuring Serbia Russia would have to support it like they did in 1914.

A horrible History no one learned from repeating itself - but with even more deadly Weapons.