The War everyone hoped wouldn't happen.

In recent Days a full blown, direct shooting War started with Israel and Iran with the former beginning an illegal AND EXTREMELY RECKLESS preemptive Attack on the latter. I began writing Commentary on it and given the severe Gravitas of the situation I felt it necessary to turn those Comments into a Post on the subject........   

Pearl Harbour 2......

There are so many parallels with the Israeli Attack on Iran in the early Hours of June 13th and the Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1942.

The Japanese were in Negotiations with the Americans right up to their Attack - using the Talks as a Feint while they prepared for it - rather like it looks like the supposed 'Negotiations' President Trump's Team were doing with Tehran were happening while Americas Ally Israel were preparing for their Attack.

Trump now looks to the Iranians and their Allies like Yamamoto or General Tojo, and is probably regarded in the same way.

This must have raised Eyebrows in Moscow as they have been 'negotiating' with America in the last Month while they had the recent Attacks on the Airfields and Railways to contend with.

But then, didn't they have 'negotiations' in Minsk which were - as Angela Merkel confessed - just a Feint while the West armed and militarised Ukraine?

Intriguing how a German Chancellor would say this after another in the Reichstag used Munich 1938 to buy time to further equip before his invasion of Poland the year after.

Given how dangerous this can be isn't all this utterly detestable that western Leaders should deliberately forfeit any Trust their Negotiating Partners are meant to have to give the Process any substance?

History repeating.....or ignored?

During the 1962 Missile Crisis Kennedy was very reluctant to attack Cuba for this very reason. That he did not want to be seen treating Havana like Pearl Harbour while there was scope for negotiation with Khrushchev. He was being pressured by his General Staff to do so, but he held firm.

Given the potential Consequences it's just as well he did.

Other similarities ....

Maybe he had learnt his lesson from the Bay of Pigs fiasco the year before when the same People talked him into launching the Invasion, and how it would prompt an insurrection against the Cuban Government.

Both failed.

The Bay of Pigs also failed because Kennedy wasn't going to get drawn into a direct War with Cuba - which is what those attempting to manipulate him wanted him to do.

So, about whether America and Israel are hoping attacks on Tehran will invoke the same and Iranians will rise up against their Government?

Didn't they learn anything from "Axis of Evil" when GWB lumped Iran in with it despite Tehran's reformist Government of the time?

Did the Iranians panic and scurry off to vote for an even more pro-western Candidate in the Election after Bush's Gaffe? No they didn't, and they voted instead for a former Revolutionary Guard.

Yet more History repeating ......

Is this "WMD's" 2, a rerun of the 2003 War in Iraq?

The thing here is, given that Iran doesn't actually have any Nuclear Weapons, any "smoking Guns turning into Mushroom Clouds" could very well be Israeli. That Israel could resort to their proven to exist Nuclear Weapons should things become so parlous that a Population who have never had a War like this on their own Soil demand it.

Or that Netanyahu could blackmail other Countries to support him by using this Threat.....

"If things get too bad I might have to use the Bomb unless you help" that sort of thing.

It's a Fait Accompli because if others do get drawn into it Iran's Allies who also have the Bomb will feel obliged to support Tehran. Pakistan has even offered to Nuke Israel should Netanyahu use his.

Iran's response to the Israeli Assault shows they weren't dealt the crippling blow Propaganda would have us believe while Israeli Authorities are doing everything they can to conceal the Damage it has done.

What might Iran do to any Gulf States that look complicit, and what would that mean for the global Economy if it's main Fuel supply is blocked or even destroyed? And might Israel/America do the same to any that side with Iran?

Like the Economy hadn't been battered enough in recent years by the Pandemic, Sanctions resulting from the War in Ukraine, and the Sino-US Trade and Tariff War.

This whole thing is a complete travesty and Israel should be condemned in the strongest terms for an unprovoked Attack on a sovereign Nation who were negotiating in good faith to end an increasingly tense Crisis.

And what did Netanyahu do when the proverbial hit the Fan?

Fly away to Greece apparently on the "Wings of Zion!"

So, about these Negotiations ........

A few months ago now I began asking if Trump was sincere in wanting to end some of the Wars America had started.

Or was all the Shuttle Diplomacy and publicised Statements that began with Russia nothing more than Bluster to hide the Fact that the War was going to continue?

Was the Confrontation with Zelenskiy in the Whitehouse that time nothing more than Show? That maybe the Ukrainian President doesn't have the Monopoly on being an Actor?

Trump could have ended American support for a pointless War as soon as he took office, but he didn't. He could also have done the same with Israel in Gaza.

That his distancing himself from Britain and Europe, trapped in a Policy of his predecessors making, could be meant to prompt them to increase their own Military spending?

And who might they buy a lot of Weapons from?

There are questions about whether Trump knew in advance of the Israeli Attack and even those about American complicity.

The problem Trump faces is either/or

Either he knew and the Negotiations with Tehran were just a Feint to lull Iran into a false sense of Security.

Or, he didn't know, which compromises his Credibility as a reliable negotiating Partner because why bother hoping for a Result with someone who is either oblivious to the situation or ineffectual?

So, how are any of these People supposed to trust any western Leader about anything when it looks like such a Culture of Duplicity exists?

What makes it even more dangerous are rumours that North Korea aren't getting drawn into the same Game and Kim Jong Un isn't playing, which tells you that the whole Process might be being seen for what it is.

America should not be gambling with World War 3, but that is exactly what they are doing.

One thing I can't fathom is how any of this was allowed to fester for so long anyway.

Couldn't Trumps predecessor Joe Biden have commissioned his former Boss Barack Obama as a special Envoy to Iran and re-establish the JCPOA he negotiated when he was President?

The terrifying thing is Americas War with Japan started with Pearl Harbour, but it ended with Nuclear Weapons.

           

1912 and back again.

 

James Cameron's Film might at first just look like a Love Story set against the most famous maritime Disaster in History, but there's a lot more to it than that.

Not only is it as Film about that famous Disaster, it also spans other things - from a Island off the eastern Coast of Canada to a Press Conference held in August 1990, and seems to have been prompted by an Image from 1993 and the Story that surrounds it.

It was 1990 and a Rock Music Album was compiled and released dealing with the Lebanese Hostage Crisis that had gone on through the second half of the 1980's. Anyone who was aware of things at the time would know Names like John McCarthy, Terry Waite, Brian Keenan etc and a few People in Bristol decided to do an Album Project to campaign for their release.

I was asked to write a Press Pack for it that would be sent to recording Artistes in the hope they would donate a Song for it. They did, and as Songs from the likes of Tina Turner to Dire Straits, Simple Minds to Peter Gabriel began arriving it started gaining a Momentum that would culminate in the Press Conference to launch it.

What was impressive was that it was held at the iconic Waldorf Hotel in London, which they donated the use of for free. Years later I began doing family Research and began wondering how, and did any of that have something to do with that Conference?

The Waldorf was built in 1908 by William Waldorf Astor - Cousin to the wealthiest Man on the stricken Ship - John Jacob "Jakie" Astor. The Astor's were close Friends of the Cecil's of Salisbury and Arthur Balfour who was related to them. So was Lord Harlech - David Ormsby Gore - whose Mother was one of the Gascoyne-Cecils. It turned out Harlech was also a Friend of my own Family who I was reunited with in 1996. It seems I had a connection with that Conference Venue that went beyond a 1990 Music Album launch.

The Hotel itself was actually used in the "SOS Titanic" Movie because it was contemporaneous with the Ship and had certain aesthetic similarities. There was also the Astor connection.

As for the Album Project .....

Dealing with Hostages the Balfour connection resonates with the most beloved Novel of Scotland - Robert Louis Stephenson's "Kidnapped". Balfour featured elsewhere in it all as the Project was invited to Prague in the newly democratised Czechoslovakia, a Country he helped create at the Treaty of St Germaine after the Austro Hungarian Empire was broken up in 1918.

I was supposed to go to Prague that time - but for reasons I didn't Questions should be asked of those responsible.

The Hand and the Rose ........

It was February 14th 1993 and someone opened an Envelope with a Card in it which had drawn Image of a Hand coming from a Lake holding a Rose. A Tor was shown in the Background and it was all evocative of the famous Arthurian Scene when Merlin receives Excalibur or when Sir Bedywr throws it into the Lake after Arthur is killed at the Battle of Camlann.

At the end of the "Titanic" Movie we see Rose throw a Diamond Necklace into the Sea - reminiscent of the latter and what would once have been called a Votive. This has it's modern equivalent with the Wishing Well, when you throw a Coin into it making a Wish.

The Necklace had a huge Jewel mounted into it and the Astor family Heirloom was the Sansi Diamond.

Could she have been returning it to its rightful owner - given that JJ Astor died on that Ship? In that context might he and Jack Dawson have been one and the same?

Or was it a metaphor for the Press Conference and how it might have happened - and how it seems to have launched rather a lot more than a Hostage Album Project? She goes on to become an Actress while a lot of creative Economics - from Fleet Street to independent Television - is attributable to those associated with it. More of some of that in a moment.

An earlier Voyage ......

We go back to 1621 when Welsh Sea Captain Edward Wynn, commissioned by George Calvert - aka Lord Baltimore - sailed to and established a Colony on Newfoundland called Avalon. It was named by Calvert after the Town in Somerset which he saw as the fount of Christianity in Britain. Obviously an adherent to the Story of Joseph of Arimathea.

This becomes poignant given that the "Titanic" Film was made by a Canadian and the Theme Song recorded by one of Canada's most famous Artistes - Celine Dion. 

It's also reminiscent of the Hand and the Rose - with it's Avalonian Imagery.

The Name Wynn is also evocative, being connected with the ancient noble Houses of Gwynedd and Deheubarth in Wales.

Here is an article elaborating who Edward Wynn was...

https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/NFLDS/article/view/12688/13593

George Calvert was sponsored by Robert Cecil of Burghley who acted as Guarantor to his rise through the Court and obtaining his Title..... becoming Lord to the Town of Baltimore, Ireland.

Calvert went on to establish the State of Maryland - Cecil helping him obtain it's Charter - and the City of Baltimore. As a tribute to his Sponsor Calvert named his Son Cecile.

This is why the City has Calvert Street as it's administrative District and I wonder how many Fans of the work of David Simon are aware of any of this?

Back to the Film and we see Jack and Fabrizio win Tickets for the Ship in a game of Poker and while they celebrate their good fortune we see People going aboard, so does everyone in Southampton, but one of those Passengers is a young Woman called Rose. "To everyone else it was the Ship of Dreams - to me it was a Slave Ship!" she says. Those on the Quayside just see the Glamour - they don't see what Rose is feeling.

The Name Wynne appears again - this time in the form of John Arthur Wynne who was involved in the process that would lead to the abolition of Slavery.

https://metrowynn.blogspot.com/2016/08/john-arthur-wynne-unsung-philanthropist.html?m=1

There are other things that allude to this ......

As the mighty Ship finally sinks the last thing we see is "Titanic - Liverpool" painted on the Stern. Mid 90's Britain was in the throes of a huge Beatles Revival, while the NME's Album of the year was their "Revolver" LP. Strange given it wasn't from 1996 at all, and was from 1966 - 30 years earlier, although it was that year I last saw my Family before the Reunion in 1996.

Unfortunately, Liverpool suffers from the Stigma along with Bristol, for being a Slave Traders Capital while James Penny whose Name was allegedly given to the Penny Lane the Song was about was one of its worst.

The Great Patriotic War ........

This is the eternal Flame - a Monument to the fallen at the Battle of Stalingrad, but it could be a Hand coming from a Lake holding a Sword - reminiscent of the Imagery from Arthurian Legend - or even holding a Rose like it did in 1993. In the Film we are shown Jack partially submerged in the Sea holding Rose's Hand as she floats on a Piece of Flotsam left by the Ship.

While James Horner did the Music for "Titanic" he also did it for "Enemy at the Gates", the Film about the Battle of Stalingrad and legendary Soviet Sniper Vasily Zaitsev. If you listen to the "Titanic" Soundtrack you will hear the Refrain he went on to use in the Stalingrad Movie.

Here's a Scene from the Film ......

Yours truly - 1996 - taken during the Reunion.....

A TALE OF 2 GRADS...

Anyone who speaks Russian will know that the Word Grad means City.

Somewhere in an archived Copy of Pravda or Izvestia is probably an Interview with the Man who conceived the Concept of that  Hand and the Torch in the Hall of Military Glory in the Stalingrad Memorial Complex.

As I mentioned, the Statue with the Hand coming from the Ground holding a Torch to anyone familiar with the Excalibur Legend seems reminiscent of the iconic Image of the Hand coming from the Lake holding the Sword - either about to be given to or returned by Arthur.

The two most symbolic Battles in terms of struggle of the Great Patriotic War were those of Stalingrad and Leningrad. Kursk might have been the biggest, but the Battle on the Volga and the Siege of Leningrad the most iconic.

In the Hall is the Inscription "Yes, we were mere mortals, and few of us survived (the German siege). But we all fulfilled our patriotic duty to our sacred Motherland" and the operative Word perhaps is "siege".

So it's like the Monument commemorates the Battle of Stalingrad - which was the turning point of the War in Russia and arguably that of WW2 itself, but also pays Homage to those who defended the City on the Shores of Lake Ladoga in the North. If it had fallen the Germans would have rolled up the Soviet Army and moved southwards towards Moscow.

Leningrad was supplied during this for nearly 3 years via the Lake which has a much older significance to the History of the Region and it's People.

It was from there the Rurikids established their first Citadel - Starya Ladoga - and began to consolidate and spread what would become the Rus. The City became a Hub of Commerce that would trade from the Baltic in the North to the Greek held Areas of Constantinople in the South. It became the most important in eastern europe They went on to create the powerful State of Kievan Rus.

The Route becomes a very potent metaphor for a Stream that winds its way through 1200 years of History from those early years of the 9th Century to those of Today - even in this Country, while a huge chunk of French history owes something to it, along with many other European dynasty's and histories.

Through every epoch, from it's Varangian Origins, the Rus, the Regions subjugation by the Khanates and the Golden Horde, the attempts of conquest by the Teutonic Knights, Sweden, the Polish Commonwealth, Napoleon, Tsarist rule and even during the Rule of the Bolsheviks.

Perhaps it was no coincidence that Soviet Fortunes during the Great Patriotic War improved when even dyed in the Wool Communist Stalin decided to change the Narrative; instead of fighting for Bolshevism or the glorious Revolution the Soviets were fighting as Patriots for Mother Russia, for something far more ancient and sacred than a 19th Century Ideology being applied in the 20th.

It was only recently People decided to mess with all of this and the Tragedy in Ukraine, with the ripple effects felt everywhere else, is the Result.

Artificially cultivated Ukrainian Nationalism tries to make it their own - even appropriating the Rus Symbol - the Flag of Starya Ladoga - and turning it into the horrible Wolfsangel they carry during Marches through Kiev, Lvov and other Ukrainian Cities.

Others, that Robin Day once called "here today, gone tomorrow Politicians", opportunistic Academics, Media Types and the whole Shebang act like they are no better than those Nationalists as they try and exclusivise it to their own ends too.

Maybe when there are those moments when an understanding is reached - particularly during the Cold War, and the 1962 Missile Crisis, or even when the Tsar and the Kaiser tried desperately to prevent WW1 which loomed and threatened in the Summer of 1914, there was something very archetypal happening that recognised that 1200 year History as the Thread that held it all together and should never be broken.

Something that acts like a giant Bungee - and pulls everything back from the Abyss.

A once and future Entity that establishes Unity when everything looks so irredeemably fractured.

"Titanic" the Film was an Example of when the West and Russia worked together on something as the Hollywood based Canadian Film Maker used the Services of the Russian Research Vessel RV Akademik Mstislav Keldysh for those deep Dive Scenes in a Film peopled by British and American Actors.

It turned out to be a very big Example - being the most successful Film ever made up to and even after it appeared. 

Yet more creative Economics activity .......

Wonder how many People have met here .... A Scene from the Waldorf.......

Rather like this .......

...... After the Ship has sunk this was the Scene that was described as one of the most emotive in any Film ever ..... Rose on the Piece of Wood from the above Scene ..... just before Jack dies.

Here is a Montage done by someone showing what happened after ..... Rose is rescued by 5th Officer Harold Lowe - a Gwynedd Lad - played by Ioan Gruffudd who went on to appear as William Wilberforce.......

And what of that Image of the Hand and the Rose?

Here was another Montage someone did alluding to other Films that continued the Theme .......

Yep, from Jack Dawson to Jack Sparrow - and anyone who has seen those "Pirates of the Caribbean" Films will know that "The Curse of the Black Pearl" started with the young William Turner being found floating on a piece of Driftwood wearing a Pendant made from Aztec Gold. He becomes an Artificer and fine Sword Maker.

So it seems the Hand and the Rose went on to prompt those "Pirates of the Caribbean" Movies via "Titanic".

So you can see there was a lot more to "Titanic" than a Film about a love story set on the famous maritime Disaster.

And watch this space as we will go back to the roaring Twenties and why Leonardo Di Caprio might have been chosen to play Gatsby.

The OSCE or NATO?

 The OSCE ...... or NATO?

Many of the Problems we have now are due to the gradual neglect of the OSCE or Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe.

This was an initiative that was meant to establish a working relationship of Security from Portugal to Vladivostok and a way forward in the post-Cold War World Order.

Originally conceived between European Countries, America and the Soviet Union, as Sergei Lavrov says it could very easily have continued with post-Soviet Russia.

Indeed, in conjunction with the CFE or Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty - signed by western European, former Warsaw Pact and Soviet Countries - it would have acted as a Guarantee against where we are now. Because everyone is in it - including Ukraine and Georgia - Russia would feel no Threat to it's Security.

Thus, there would be no War in Ukraine, while the Dynamic affecting the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement would have been very different.

It would also have had other effects far beyond the Lisbon-Vladivostok Corridor.

The enmity with Iran wouldn't exist because as an OSCE Partner Russia would use it's substantial Leverage with Tehran while Relations with China would be more inclusive than fractious. Even North Korea would see the Writing on the Wall and adjust accordingly.

So instead of green lighting NATO expansion President Bill Clinton and others like the UK Prime Minister and German and French Leaders ought to have been working to develop the OSCE.

The CFE Treaty was adapted at a Conference in Istanbul in 1999 so former Soviet States could ratify it on a national rather than soviet Basis.

The Arrangement began to unravel in 2007 when Russia cited NATO enlargement and how it increased Weapons in signatory Countries as the reason for their suspending it. They mentioned Missile Systems in Poland, Bases in Romania and other things which rendered the Treaty meaningless.

NATO responded by criticising Russian Troop presences in both Moldova and Georgia.

This was before the Georgian War of 2008, which gave Russia some justification for being there as Peacekeepers when Georgian Artillery began firing at South Ossetian Villages and the enclaves Capital Tskhinvali. Even the EU found in a subsequent enquiry against the Georgians for deliberately targeting Civilians and dubbed the episode a War Crime.

The Moldovan Story goes back to the Transnistria War where ethnic Russians - backed by Ukraine - fought for independence against the Romanian Moldovans, and it could be argued that Russian Soldiers were there to act as guarantors, particularly as the Chisinau Government were veering towards Europe and maybe even NATO.

As the War in Ukraine began after the Russian Military Operation of 2022 there were fears in Moldova that they might become the "next Ukraine", and even Sergei Lavrov once mentioned this. It was because of Moldova's proximity to Odessa.

Except, shouldn't this have been added to the Reasons why Zelenskiy ought to have ratified the Istanbul Communique in April 2022?

The Treaty guaranteed Ukraine's possession of the famous Black Sea port, and thus, a sizable buffer between Moldova and the Russian held Oblasts of the Donbas and Crimea.

Any Russian Troops in Transnistria would have been bound by the Treaty, while Fears surrounding their Presence and Moldovans position in European-NATO Geopolitics ought to have been the subject of further negotiations and a Treaty.

The OSCE and CFE Treaties - along with the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty - were the things that prevented Missiles from crashing into every European Capital and City. These were the Frameworks for how the post-Cold War World Order would look, while the START Treaty covered strategic Arms that meant the rest of the World.

As these formed Lines that should never be crossed the World becomes increasingly dangerous as each one becomes fainter by the Month, or erased completely.

NATO expansion effectively cancelled the CFE Treaty as Member States increased their Military beyond it. An Irony probably not lost on Russians who see it as akin to Germany violating the Versailles Treaty when it expanded it's Armed Forces in the 1930's.

One Problem President Trump has with anyone who has been paying attention is how he was the one who walked out of the INF Treaty - and then did the same with the JCPOA Deal with Iran. The latter was a Deal with Tehran that they should curtail their Nuclear Program in return for Sanctions relief. Because he did this, not only were Sanctions reapplied, we are now in the very ambiguous position of having to guess what Iran's Nuclear program might be doing. The latter is proving very dangerous, with Trump deploying Aircraft Carriers to the Region and rattling a very large Sabre.

None of this would be happening if he hadn't left the JCPOA.

Not helped by the growing Iranian enmity with an Israel that does have the Bomb.

Meanwhile, Russian fears of western Militarism shouldn't be underestimated.

It took heaps of reassurance from a plethora of western and NATO Leaders to convince Gorbachev to support German reunification. Everyone, from James Baker to Margaret Thatcher, Manfred Woerner to Helmut Kohl, and French Leaders, all told him "not one Inch eastward"!

Despite nearly 45 years of liberal democracy in the Bundesrepublik or West Germany, Gorbachev was still wary of how a unified Germany would bring NATO further east and nearer to his Border, such was the impact of Operation Barbarossa on the Soviet/Russian Psyche.

Subsequently how could People be shocked when "Gorby" came down firmly in support of Putin over Ukraine, rather than condemn him? But then, he was the one who must have felt most betrayed when NATO did expand, being the Leader in the Kremlin when those pledges were made.

The OSCE - along with the supporting Treaties - was supposed to be how the World would be once the NATO-Warsaw Pact Stand-off ended. Even Vaclav Havel alluded to this when he suggested a similar Arrangement in 1990, saying; the Soviet Union should join NATO, or the Organisation be dismantled as it's Warsaw Pact Opponent no longer existed.

Moscow didn't join, but this was finally deemed unnecessary as the OSCE and Treaties of Paris and Helsinki would facilitate the alternative.

What we are seeing now is the consequences of all this being neglected.

..........

WHY ARE TREATIES IMPORTANT?

Treaty's are crucial to maintain some semblance of international Law.

History shows us what happens when they are violated, the most significant being that of Versailles and Munich. The former restricting Germanies Military expansion, the latter meant to prevent it's geographical equivalent, violation of both resulting in WW2. Reparations being the formers Weakness and warned against by several People, including the Architect of the League of Nations Robert Gascoyne Cecil.

The subsequent War cancelled the Treaty's of St Germaine as Countries disappeared into the Reich.

In recent years the Oslo Accords died with the Zionist Bullet in 1995 and Nablus now has empty would-be Government Buildings, Gaza is reduced to Rubble, West Bank increasingly annexed and Palestinians decimated.

The CFE Treaty effectively cancelled by NATO expansion while the OSCE, with its origins in Helsinki and Paris, sidelined by it. The INF Treaty was rendered meaningless by further NATO deployment and development of dual purpose Weapons that could be turned into Nuclear Missiles. That finally died when Trump #1 abandoned it.

The JCPOA was meant to ensure Iranian cooperation in not developing Nuclear Weapons and Trump #1 abandoned that one too.

By her own admission former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said how the West used the Minsk Accords as a way to buy time to further arm and militarise a Ukraine that was being brought closer to NATO Membership.

And the very reason NATO expanded was because, while both Gorbachev and Yeltsin were given assurances it wouldn't there was no Treaty to ensure it.

There are others which have now become nominal as the Situation is anathema to their aspirations.

So, as these disappear or are made impotent by belligerence or contempt we could descend into a neo-dark Age like the time when arbitrary Powers could War with each other on a Whim.

What we are seeing is the gradual erosion of the Peace of Westphalia.

This was a series of Treaties signed in Osnabruck and Munster in 1648 to end both the 30 year and 80 year Wars.

It was felt that if these continued there would be nothing left of Europe as all combatants would have fought each other to death and that had to end.

It established several principles ....

Ending religious Wars between Catholics and Protestants.

The rise and sovereignty of nation states.

Foundation of international Law.

All of this being the premise upon which other Treaty's are built.

So, Treaty's are important to maintain a World Order that means Countries and their People can develop and live in Peace. Europe after WW2 enjoyed 40 years of it until the Balkans descended into Wars of the 1990's with the break up of Yugoslavia and the Transnistria War.

Compared to the Ukraine though these were very regional Conflicts that didn't draw the whole World into them. The Ukraine Conflict has caused Europe to move even further away from the Treaties that bound it, including it's very existence, meant to prevent War in Europe.

VE Day - 80 years ago!

 Here is a Snapshot of what the Celebrations of the 80th anniversary of VE Day are about on May 8th 2025

 Lord Lovat at Pegasus Bridge June 1944......

          Fitzroy MacLean with Josip Broz Tito......

As the Poster suggests - the historic Meeting of American and Soviet Troops at the Elbe.....

More Meetings - Scotland meets USSR Allies......

.......and to show that Victory was owed as much to the many Women who fought. British and Soviet Men and Women celebrate......

The iconic Image of William Robertson and Alexandr Silvashko - seen as a symbol of post War Peace and Hope........

Comrades in Arms.......

Several Allied Headlines on the day ...... starting with Britain......

America .......

France .......

The Soviet Union .......

I could mention 100's of others ....... all brilliant

On the Day ..... Street Scenes .....

Churchill addresses the Crowd in London....

Trafalgar Square ......

New York ......

Paris .....

Moscow ......

And we could have visited every Allied City and Town on the day and seen similar Scenes as People celebrated the end of nearly 6 years of War in Europe.

And to show none of it would have been possible without each other ..... The famous Handshake Poster of some of the Allies who fought .......

Happy VE Day - 1945 - 2025!!!!!!!!

Munich - 2025

 

I'm aghast!!!!!!

While the European Leaders whine about JD Vance's Comments at the Munich Conference have any of them remembered why he is the American Vice President at all?

That, last year the Americans had had enough of the Biden Harris Administration that dragged the World into the Morass the Conference is meant to resolve.

And hasn't the German Chancellor seen the ominous parable of Munich and how Zelenskiy has done exactly what Adolf Hitler did in 1933? He used the Countries Democracy to become it's leader, then abolished it.

And if that wasn't enough, the unelected Dictator of Ukraine seems to want to become the unelected Commander in chief of a "European Army!!!!!!

This will be a Europe fighting a Russia that no longer recognises the INF Treaty and could nuke every City in it with short to medium range Missiles.

How much longer have we got to go along with this Mans delusional insanity?

Any hope that Britain might talk some sense into that 3rd rate Actor were dashed when David Lammy said how Ukraine was "on an irreversible path to joining NATO"!

Has he forgotten why this War started in the first place?

But what a lot of these NATOphiles forget is that a component of the Istanbul Agreement - which would have ended the Ukraine War in April 2022 - was about how other Countries - including Russia - would act as a security Guarantor should neutral Ukraine be threatened by any other.

In other Words, rather like NATO's Article 5 but by another Name, and better, because it does include the Russians, avoiding the confrontational Aspects that caused the Conflict.

But what if the War was different?

Zelenskiy seems so far removed from the Plot he has failed to realise this ......

Even if - and that's a very big, very speculative "IF" and completely hypothetical - Ukraine did prevail and fought the Russians to a Standstill, forcing Moscow to sue for Peace, what would be left of Ukraine to the Ukrainians?

Nothing if all it's natural, mineral, agricultural and manufacturing Wealth has been sold off to the West and most prominently America.

And he would have to continue selling off the Country if the very unlikely happened and he did push the Russians back to pre-2014 and recaptured the Crimea. Every Acre of it all captured would be sold to equip and fund the Ukrainian Forces necessary to do so.

So he, or more accurately the Ukrainian People, would gain nothing.

And to further the Hitler comparison there's a Video showing Zelenskiy with a huge Map on a Table showing where these rare Earth Deposits are - except many of them are now in Russian controlled Areas. He's like Hitler - who would do the same in the Fuhrer Bunker with Maps showing non existent Divisions, saying they should push here, or push there, except they'd been destroyed by the Soviet Armies on the Eastern Front.

And rather like the end of WW2 many of these Deposits are in the Russian controlled Zone like it was what would become Kaliningrad, the Area formerly known as East Prussia, Silesia and East Germany which saw Assets stripped as reparations for the War and taken back to the Soviet Union.

Seeing how the Munich Meeting is taking shape the War could end very similarly too, in how the main Winners won't be the European Powers but America and Russia.

And in that Munich Conference it seems the EU might not be involved in any final Talks to resolve the Conflict.

Ironic considering the EU insisted on excluding the Russians from the EU-Ukraine cooperation Summit in 2013 - which forced Yanukovych to abandon it and led to the Maidan Coup of 2014.

Zelenskiy has caused a Pooh Storm by now refusing to sign over Rare Earth Minerals to the Americans, except he must be suffering from Amnesia after offering those same Minerals to them as long ago as last October.

The thing is, not only was American influence on Maidan probably due to Oil Companies Chevron, Haliburton and Exxon doing exploratory drilling in Ukraine, he must have been very naive if he thought there wouldn't be a Caveat to all this military and financial Aid he's been getting since the Conflict started.

As I've said, he should have ratified the Istanbul Agreement instead, before his Country was wrecked by War, People died and were displaced in their Millions, it's Assets stripped by foreign Concerns, and he was still politically and diplomatically intact.

Quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting.

Syria, North Korea ............. Anywhere else?

I posted some updates in a Post I wrote about the escalation of War in the Levant a few years ago. This was a compendium of Comments Id made on the Subject elsewhere on the Internet a few years earlier.

Such is the Gravitas that is happening as Conflict spreads like a Contagion I decided to create this so you could read recent Comments here.

 As Reports emerge that Syrian Leader Bashar Assad has fled to Moscow after he was toppled by HTS the Future for Syria looks very uncertain and maybe even very bleak.

One only has to see what happened in Iraq after Saddam was deposed, which went through several Civil Wars - including the establishment of Islamic State in Cities like Mosul and Fallujah, and this was with the large presence of Coalition Forces.

What this means for the myriad Groups who fought the Regime in Syria now that Regime has apparently gone is as yet unknown. The only thing unifying them was their War against it, while there have been skirmishes and conflicts between them.

Kurds under Massoud Barzani fought to protect non-Sunni Minorities and Christians from Islamist Forces, and against the SNA (Syrian National Army) backed by Turkey. Supposedly moderate Free Syrian Army Soldiers gradually became part of the Islamist Factions and other Forces have been at work with/against each other during the Civil War.

Assad himself guaranteed Protection to all Citizens in the Country.

As the Kurds will probably have to concentrate guarding against the Insurgents, particularly any backed by Turkey, and Assad has gone can we trust HTS who tell us they have changed and are no longer the Al Qaida/IS People they were?

And how about the remnants of the Syrian Army?

Will they just down Guns and go home, or will they form up yet another Faction in the fractured Country that was Syria?

How long could HTS maintain what they claim will be a 'moderate' Regime if Insurgents start turning on them, and how will this further brutalise those involved?

This isn't a western backed Government like Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan after the Taliban was defeated, while there are Rival players in the Region, each with their Proxies in a Syria that has no actual Leadership. Iran would back the Remnants of the Army and Syrian Hezbollah while Turkey and others support those opposed to these.

And how might any of this look to a People who saw and even fought a "War on Terrorism" since 2001, only to see an offshoot of Al Qaida seize Power in Damascus?

As all this goes on Syria itself and the Region generally might conclude they were better off with Assad!

I think some People are being dangerously naïve if they believe post-Assad Syria will begin towards Human Rights and open Society.

The SNA had committed terrible Crimes against Kurds in northern Syria - including the public Murder of Kurdish Politician Hevrin Khalaf. The UN have cited many instances of Rape, Murder, Kidnappings and Theft by them against Kurds.

Yazidis fled from them to Kurdish Regions in their 1000's.

Others, including Islamists, used Chemical Weapons in a false Flag Attack that was blamed on the Government - while all will vie for Influence in the Ruins of what remains of the Country.

There's very little difference between some of them and those we saw in Iraq conducting public Executions of Iraqi Soldiers during the Camp Speicher Massacre and dozens of Mutilations in the Streets of Mosul.

Do they assume Hayat Tahrir Al Sham or their Leader Abu Mohammed Al Jolani will call free and fair Elections if or when things settle down?

As I said, these aren't even the likes of Ahmed Chalabi in Iraq or Hamid Kharzai in Afghanistan, while HTS have been dubbed a Terrorist Organisation.

They are also committed against Kurdish YPG or Peoples Defences Units Forces, supported by Western Governments - who want a federal secular Country rather than an islamist Caliphate.

Also, how open will they be to Shi'ite Moslems who they deem as heretical?

So, Syria won't suddenly become a cute and cuddly Bastion of Peace and liberal Democracy now the Assad Regime has gone, while there will be those from the Regime who will probably form yet another Militia in the huge network of Fighters there, supported by former Ba'athist Party Members.

Now that Regime has gone there's nothing stopping any of the above committing further and even worse Atrocities than those done during the years long Civil War.

And what makes it worse is how any former Government Weapons and Materiel has fallen into the Hands of who knows what in the subsequent free-for-all!

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You ain't seen nothing yet......

As the West loses it's Stomach for War - particularly after the humiliating Rout in Afghanistan and the "War on Terrorism" Rhetoric long outstayed it's welcome years ago, what might things be like now Al Qaida 2 seems to have seized Control in Syria?

One thing is certain, they now have access to equipment once owned by the most heavily armed Force in the Arab World. Second only to Saddam before he was deposed.

Then, what if they decide to export their form of Wahhabism to the rest of the World? That Syria becomes the new Afghanistan, but with far more Weapons, for any Terror Group that makes Osama look tame in comparison?

Anyone remember what happened after a former Western (read American) Proxy went rogue and flew Planes into Buildings? They fought the Soviets, HTS fought the Russian's Ally in Damascus, then what happens?

If we did have another '9/11' how could the Politicians sell the response to us after the last Go-Round?

And if that happened how many more Civil Liberties will be eroded by yet another Patriot Act, and then another?

America is about to have a President who is known for potential Authoritarianism and disdain for Civil Liberties. A President who faces very little Opposition that could effectively curb some of his wider excesses.

How many more Patriot Acts will we see?

Also, as reported, Executions are already starting in Syria despite Jolani's reassurances, what will happen there as 1000''s then millions try to flee? Who is going to invest in a Country with that sort of Leadership and rescue it's shattered Economy, rebuild it's ruined Infrastructure and reapply essential services?

These are all very good reasons to ask if Syria and the World that will feel the Ramifications of it is better off without Assad - or is the euphoria at his demise very misguided

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Has the Leopard changed his Spots?

If Reports are true and Scenes reminiscent of what happened in Iraq are repeated as I write then maybe not. Allegations circulate that before they mounted their Insurgency HTS - who ran an Enclave in the Idlib Province - administered public Stoning's of Women for Adultery while the whole War has seen Excesses that were even worse than the darker days of the Taliban.

And what if he appears too friendly to the West and even Israel?

President elect Trump has made no Secret that he covets Syrian Oil in the resource rich eastern region of the Country. How will it sit with Jolani's Peers and those opposed to him if that Region becomes an American Colony? During the War it was always possible it would be returned to full Syrian control. What if that no longer applies?

How about the Israelis, and if they decide to settle into Syria beyond the Golan Heights? The Heights has been contentious enough since they were captured in 1967. How long will Jolani last if he does nothing to prevent it?

Then there's the Turkish occupation of the Region on its Border. Will they withdraw or will they decide to cash in on their Support of the SNA and keep it? Kurds in the Region must be very apprehensive about any of that after what they were subjected to.

Syria enjoyed considerable regional Influence for a very long time and I can't imagine many Syrians would be prepared to give any of that up to other Players in it or western Proxies.

And if, in Assad's absence, the Country is off limits to Russia and Iran who will sponsor the Countries physical, fiscal and economic rehabilitation after more than 10 years of War?

And if Israel doesn't think Syria is more dangerous after Assad was toppled why have they done what they never did during the whole Assad Era .....?

Bomb all Syrian Military Assets, or at least those they could get to.

They never did anything as all encompassing as they did a few Days ago.

So they obviously know that these who have replaced Assad would have been far too dangerous if they had access to the same Equipment Assad's once powerful Army used.

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More airbrushing of History .......?

Rather like all the post 2014 reports of Azov Excesses in Ukraine including Human Rights Articles about their Treatment of ethnic Russians, and the general Narrative about neo-Nazis in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Reports of the many 1000's killed and displaced by Islamist Rebels and Turkish backed Forces in Syria before Assad was toppled seem to have disappeared.

Now we are being fed a continuous Narrative that every Death, Injury and Injustice was firmly the fault of the former Regime.

This is completely wrong and as inaccurate as saying the same things in Iraqi Cities like Mosul and Fallujah were done by Saddam. Not that either Dictator was a Bastion of liberal Democracy - because they weren't - but then, neither are many of those who choose to replace them.

Syria's interim Prime Minister has announced there won't be Elections in Syria probably for another 18 Months, and as we have seen, a lot can happen in that time. Including positing the necessary People in all the crucial Posts before hand.

Any innocence of spontaneity we might see now will completely disappear in that time.

And while a lot can happen in Syria in that year and a half - one of those is Civil War, which could very easily happen as the anti-Assad Unity fades and each player - and their Sponsors jostle for influence in the new Syria. Afghanistan collapsed into terrible Civil War after the Soviets left and it wasn't until the Taliban seized Power it ended. The most powerful Faction in Syria is the HTS - who are just revamped Al Qaida, so will we begin seeing the same thing in Syria we saw in Afghanistan in the late 1980's?

And with a similar Conclusion?

That those who end up running Syria won't be western backed Rebels, rather like those who ended up running Afghanistan in the 1990's.

Whatever happens in Syria now won't be attributed to Assad who is currently in exile in Moscow. Every incident now will be done to, and by, the Rebels who now run the Country.

I'm wondering how much of this will be reported as we are sold a Syria that isn't like the one the Assad Family ran.

Except he can watch all this go on in a Country during his absence!

And while he can now say; "I didn't do it" from Moscow how - I wonder - did these 'Rebels' feel when Israel promptly set out to destroy most of their Equipment (otherwise being the captured Spoils of War) and indulged in a Land Grab of Areas east of the Golan Heights?

How does that look to anyone asking what the Motive for any western Support might have been?

What becomes of the Millions of Refugees who are spread the length and breadth of Europe, Scandinavia, Arabia and North Africa?

Refugees who didn't flee Assad, but fled what came after 2011! They lived in Syria for hundreds of years before then.

And while, it seems, even Israel regards the new Forces that prevail in Syria as more dangerous than Assad to the point where they felt they had to destroy captured Syrian Military Assets rather than let them be used by the likes of HTS there are other things that might not be quite as certain now.

Those 1980's Beirut Hostages who didn't come home via Cyprus did so via Hafez Assad's Syria.

They would be handed to Syrian backed Lebanese Militia (usually Amal) before being given to Syrian Officials - who would then take them to Damascus.

They didn't come home via Israel, while there's very little chance they would so via the new Syria.

Also, during the 1990/1 Gulf War SAS Soldiers who had been operating deep inside Iraq had suffered Casualties through Firefights, Injuries and the Cold Weather before making it to the Syrian Border. After asking a Goat Herder where they were and learning they were in Syria they knew their Ordeal was over.

Could they say that now?

While Executions of Assad's Henchmen began a few days ago will they be restricted to these or extended to others? Ba'ath Party Members, Iranian Officials, Supporters of Hezbollah, Kurds who happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, Shia and Alawite Moslems? Anyone else who doesn't comply with their Doctrine?

Then there's the Betrayal that will be felt by those Syrians who supported HTS, only to see yet more Land appropriated by Israel. Something that didn't happen during the Assad Era.

So, what might happen in the 18 Months Syria's interim Prime Minister said would elapse before any Elections?

As there is potential for all sorts of manoeuvring's and subterfuge the Euphoria will fade very quickly if it wasn't misguided to start with.

Then, what happens if host Governments decide to repatriate the millions of Refugees who fled the Country during the Civil War, who had otherwise lived in Syria for 100's of years before?

What will they be going back to, and just how welcome would they be by the new Regime after spending so long in the West?

And those Millions of Refugees who fled Syria didn't flee Assad, many had lived there for Decades during that Era, and they fled the War. They aren't Wahabi'ists or other forms of Extremists, but regular Syrians whose Lives had been destroyed by Conflict. How much of those Lives would still exist if they returned to Syria, and how much of the Country and Society would they at all recognise?

Of anyone who should understand this it ought to be a People whose Lives and Villages across eastern and central Europe were erased by WW2, but how many descendants of the Ashkenazim Diaspora empathise with the Plight of those Syrian Refugees?

Or are they merely replacing one Diaspora with another?

Also, if Money and Resources sent to Ukraine so Kiev could fight Russia was funnelled into Syria to train and equip the HTS War against Assad's Government isn't that constitutionally illegal? That the American Legislature passed Laws allowing it be sent to Ukraine - not Syrian Rebels?

Shouldn't someone be asking this on Capitol Hill?

Any Legislator or Representative worth their Constituents on Capital Hill, and maybe those in Westminster, and other western Countries who have sent Weapons and Resources to Ukraine should be asking why some of those things ended up in Syria.

It was discovered that some had even wound up in Kosovo, and a poignant Question to those who sent them, and even Zelenskiy, is whether there's an Intention to spread the War into Syria and maybe even Serbia? There were increasingly anxious Reports about a year and a half ago about manoeuvring's in the Balkans by NATO Countries anathema to Serbia's Interests.

Is Ukraine a sort of distribution Hub to other Forces at War (actual or potential) with Russia's Partners and Allies?

The proverbial "Guns of August" where Barbara Tuchman shows the causes and effects, alliances and enmities, that led to WW1 being played out again for yet another World War?

It's like those Lunatics in Seoul who staged a Coup and Martial Law in South Korea earlier this Month. Some speculated they were trying to provoke a "local War" with the North. President Yoon acting like a sort of 21st Century Joseph McCarthy, accusing members of his and other Political Parties, of being infiltrators by the North. The old Cold War era Paranoia revisited.

Given the current geopolitical Climate any "local War" with North Korea wouldn't remain "local" for very long .......... and wouldn't remain a conventional one either.

Zelenskiy - who has also staged a Coup by cancelling Elections in May this year - did something similar with his Politicians and those of the Opposition, the Military and even the Orthodox Church on suspicion of being Russian Agents. Even People who took part in the Istanbul Negotiations fell under similar Suspicion and died, disappeared or were imprisoned.

Any Journalist working in Washington should ask how Resources sent to Ukraine ended up in west Asia and the Balkans.

Ukrainian Corruption - one of the worst in the World - and it's Reputation for Black Market Activity does give People very plausible Deniability.

"Oh, those Weapons ended up in Kosovo because of Ukrainian Corruption" provides a convenient Veil to anyone wanting to equip a People for some future War with Serbia.

The War in Ukraine merely adds to it by distracting Attention from what was happening in Syria a couple of Weeks ago - and the months before - when HTS prepared for, then launched, their Offensive against Syrian Government Forces.

And the Ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel was another Smokescreen as the Offensive was being planned and executed. The Conflict was merely transferred elsewhere, but with a similar Result.

Hezbollah have lost a crucial logistics Conduit of Support while Lebanon - already reeling from the recent Hezbollah War with Israel - now has to deal with 10's of 1000's of Syrian Refugees and guard it's Border against potential HTS Incursion. This could cause it to collapse completely.

So, is Ukraine merely a Hub of supply and support to any anti-Sino/Russian Axis? A Conduit to spread the forever War?

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A Korean Conflict - the War that could break the Worlds Back .....

Since the Nuclear Arms race began - or at least not long after - it was always agreed that each Nuclear Power would notify the other of a scheduled Test - which might be either a Launch or Detonation. The idea being to avoid the Risk of a retaliatory response by one if they mistook a Test by the other to be an actual Strike.

But despite this, there have been many near misses with what is dubbed a close Call. This could be prompted by an encounter between Aircraft, one of which might be nuclear capable, the Soviet Submarine that was moments away from firing a Nuclear Torpedo in 1962, a malfunction in either sides Detection equipment, and even someone mistaking a training Video for the real thing.

Here is a chronology showing you many examples of all of these and some ....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_close_calls

And this is with comparatively stable, communicative Governments, with firmly established procedures.

But what about North Korea - who don't notify anyone of any impending Test? They have fired many Missiles in Test scenarios in close proximity to Japan, South Korea and even Alaska.

What if President Yoon did get his War with the North earlier this Month and Pyon Yang chose to do yet another Test during it?

With the increased tension in the Region and US military gradually becoming an omnipresence - particularly in the China Sea and Philippines - what would the Response have been once it had been detected? They would have just a few Minutes to react before they would be destroyed, so there is a very narrow margin of Error.

Like the interactions, alliances and enmities of those "Guns of August" each would have their Allies and Proxies who would feel obliged to join in in support - particularly as both Ukraine and west Asia are already on the boil.

And if there were attempts at pressuring Serbia Russia would have to support it like they did in 1914.

A horrible History no one learned from repeating itself - but with even more deadly Weapons.