Pearl Harbour 2......
There are so many parallels with the Israeli Attack on Iran in the early Hours of June 13th and the Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1942.
The Japanese were in Negotiations with the Americans right up to their Attack - using the Talks as a Feint while they prepared for it - rather like it looks like the supposed 'Negotiations' President Trump's Team were doing with Tehran were happening while Americas Ally Israel were preparing for their Attack.
Trump now looks to the Iranians and their Allies like Yamamoto or General Tojo, and is probably regarded in the same way.
This must have raised Eyebrows in Moscow as they have been 'negotiating' with America in the last Month while they had the recent Attacks on the Airfields and Railways to contend with.
But then, didn't they have 'negotiations' in Minsk which were - as Angela Merkel confessed - just a Feint while the West armed and militarised Ukraine?
Intriguing how a German Chancellor would say this after another in the Reichstag used Munich 1938 to buy time to further equip before his invasion of Poland the year after.
Given how dangerous this can be isn't all this utterly detestable that western Leaders should deliberately forfeit any Trust their Negotiating Partners are meant to have to give the Process any substance?
History repeating.....or ignored?
During the 1962 Missile Crisis Kennedy was very reluctant to attack Cuba for this very reason. That he did not want to be seen treating Havana like Pearl Harbour while there was scope for negotiation with Khrushchev. He was being pressured by his General Staff to do so, but he held firm.
Given the potential Consequences it's just as well he did.
Other similarities ....
Maybe he had learnt his lesson from the Bay of Pigs fiasco the year before when the same People talked him into launching the Invasion, and how it would prompt an insurrection against the Cuban Government.
Both failed.
The Bay of Pigs also failed because Kennedy wasn't going to get drawn into a direct War with Cuba - which is what those attempting to manipulate him wanted him to do.
So, about whether America and Israel are hoping attacks on Tehran will invoke the same and Iranians will rise up against their Government?
Didn't they learn anything from "Axis of Evil" when GWB lumped Iran in with it despite Tehran's reformist Government of the time?
Did the Iranians panic and scurry off to vote for an even more pro-western Candidate in the Election after Bush's Gaffe? No they didn't, and they voted instead for a former Revolutionary Guard.
Yet more History repeating ......
Is this "WMD's" 2, a rerun of the 2003 War in Iraq?
The thing here is, given that Iran doesn't actually have any Nuclear Weapons, any "smoking Guns turning into Mushroom Clouds" could very well be Israeli. That Israel could resort to their proven to exist Nuclear Weapons should things become so parlous that a Population who have never had a War like this on their own Soil demand it.
Or that Netanyahu could blackmail other Countries to support him by using this Threat.....
"If things get too bad I might have to use the Bomb unless you help" that sort of thing.
It's a Fait Accompli because if others do get drawn into it Iran's Allies who also have the Bomb will feel obliged to support Tehran. Pakistan has even offered to Nuke Israel should Netanyahu use his.
Iran's response to the Israeli Assault shows they weren't dealt the crippling blow Propaganda would have us believe while Israeli Authorities are doing everything they can to conceal the Damage it has done.
What might Iran do to any Gulf States that look complicit, and what would that mean for the global Economy if it's main Fuel supply is blocked or even destroyed? And might Israel/America do the same to any that side with Iran?
Like the Economy hadn't been battered enough in recent years by the Pandemic, Sanctions resulting from the War in Ukraine, and the Sino-US Trade and Tariff War.
This whole thing is a complete travesty and Israel should be condemned in the strongest terms for an unprovoked Attack on a sovereign Nation who were negotiating in good faith to end an increasingly tense Crisis.
And what did Netanyahu do when the proverbial hit the Fan?
Fly away to Greece apparently on the "Wings of Zion!"
So, about these Negotiations ........
A few months ago now I began asking if Trump was sincere in wanting to end some of the Wars America had started.
Or was all the Shuttle Diplomacy and publicised Statements that began with Russia nothing more than Bluster to hide the Fact that the War was going to continue?
Was the Confrontation with Zelenskiy in the Whitehouse that time nothing more than Show? That maybe the Ukrainian President doesn't have the Monopoly on being an Actor?
Trump could have ended American support for a pointless War as soon as he took office, but he didn't. He could also have done the same with Israel in Gaza.
That his distancing himself from Britain and Europe, trapped in a Policy of his predecessors making, could be meant to prompt them to increase their own Military spending?
And who might they buy a lot of Weapons from?
There are questions about whether Trump knew in advance of the Israeli Attack and even those about American complicity.
The problem Trump faces is either/or
Either he knew and the Negotiations with Tehran were just a Feint to lull Iran into a false sense of Security.
Or, he didn't know, which compromises his Credibility as a reliable negotiating Partner because why bother hoping for a Result with someone who is either oblivious to the situation or ineffectual?
So, how are any of these People supposed to trust any western Leader about anything when it looks like such a Culture of Duplicity exists?
What makes it even more dangerous are rumours that North Korea aren't getting drawn into the same Game and Kim Jong Un isn't playing, which tells you that the whole Process might be being seen for what it is.
America should not be gambling with World War 3, but that is exactly what they are doing.
One thing I can't fathom is how any of this was allowed to fester for so long anyway.
Couldn't Trumps predecessor Joe Biden have commissioned his former Boss Barack Obama as a special Envoy to Iran and re-establish the JCPOA he negotiated when he was President?
The terrifying thing is Americas War with Japan started with Pearl Harbour, but it ended with Nuclear Weapons.
I emphatically recommend People watch this .......
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/GQzgHBjQzf4?si=H4S2jGj3UIQSDcBR
It was a Film made in 1984 and has some ominous parallels with what is happening now.
Georgia revisited .......?
ReplyDeleteWhat if other Countries see sense and decide not to support Netanyahu?
Former Georgian President Mikhail Sakaashvili completely overplayed his Hand in 2008 with his invasion of South Ossetia.
After the "Open Door" Statement in Bucharest saying that both Ukraine and Georgia should join NATO he wrongly believed he would get support from some NATO Members particularly America.
He was so wrong, and his Actions in the Enclave where Civilians were killed by his Army shelling Villages and Towns were condemned by an EU enquiry that found it to be a War Crime.
(Yeah, it's amazing how much they've changed in the years since)
His Army got trounced in less than a Week by the Russians.
So, what if it looks like Netanyahu has overplayed his and others do what they did to Sakaashvili?
How long might he last if his People see too much of what he has brought on them?
In a paradox of supreme Irony any "Regime change" might actually be Israeli not Iranian.
And one Question no one seems to be asking .....
ReplyDeleteHow might the majority Shia Moslems in Iraq respond if this Conflict continues?
These are People who have already endured their own Wars. The Invasion of 2003 that turned out to be on a false Premise, 2 bloody Civil Wars and an undercurrent of Violence thereafter.
It was partial Iranian help by Quds Forces led by the now assassinated Qassem Soleimani that put an end to some of that.
They then had to see their Shia Cousins in Syria slaughtered in their 10's of 1000's by Agents of the (whoever) backed 'Government' of HTS.
How much insult to Injury will they endure, seeing Iran continually attacked before they demand something be done?
President Trump is going to have to swallow his Pride and there needs to be an Emergency Summit at the UN Security Council. This, and the Ukraine War are proving to be beyond his resolving and it, along with the recent Ukrainian Attack on Russian Airfields, have compromised his credibility.
ReplyDeleteAmerica, Russia, China, India, Brazil and Saudi Arabia particularly, should attend - the Saudis being the most influential Moslem Country - along with the other permanent Members, with a resolve to end all this.
When they do they should call it an extraordinary Meeting and dispense with all the usual Tricks employed at the Security Council - leaving the powers of Veto at the Door.
Earlier today President Trump cut short his Presence at the G7 Conference in Canada to return to Washington and make what looks ominously like preparations for War.
ReplyDeleteWhat the - erm - now G6 don't seem to realise is how diminished they look once that happened
After all, how can you have a Conference of the 7 wealthiest Countries in the World if THE wealthiest has left the Building?
Should Tulsi Gabbard and Robert Kennedy Junior resign?
ReplyDeleteYes, they should, particularly Tulsi because it's obvious the President has no respect for her Work as Director of National Intelligence.
In March this year she testified that Iran had no Nuclear Weapons and was a long way from finally developing any.
When asked about this as he flew back to Washington from the G7 Conference in Canada President Trump said he "didn't care what she said" about this.
How can she continue when he can so completely dismiss her Comment, particularly given the Gravitas of the Situation? He has totally trashed her Credibility should she represent American Intelligence to the International Community.
It's particularly poignant as it was a similar Scenario that meant she had to serve in Iraq in 2003.
The CIA reported Saddam didn't have any WMD's and certainly no Nuclear Weapons, and this was similarly rebuffed. The GWB Government then contrived to fabricate their own Intel to fit the Narrative, culminating in Colin Powell lying to the UN.
RFK jnr should resign in respect to his Father's Legacy and how both he and Jack Kennedy would never have acted like the current Administration is right now. That their Negotiations with Khrushchev were done in good Faith.
If they both do the World can at least see there is still some decency left in American Politics.
Indeed some of us, including Stuff I wrote on this Website thought they ought to have run on an RFK/Gabbard Ticket during last year's presidential Election.
Tulsi made a very emotive Video to Camera last week, appealing to the World not to continue on a trajectory that would lead to Nuclear War. She did it in a completely freelance Capacity. Did this suggest her growing despair at what is happening in the Corridors of Power?
Baring in mind what her Job Description involves and having access to all that Information maybe Tulsi Gabbard knows something that prompted her to make the Video.
ReplyDeleteIt could be from somewhere else in the World, but it could also be from America.
We don't know what is said in her Whitehouse Briefings every morning, but Trumps Tone seemed like there might be strain between the two Offices. That maybe he has had several very recent Arguments or Disagreements with his Intel Director.
Would Russia and China get involved?
ReplyDeleteRussia and China might not immediately get involved in any direct shooting War should America join the Fray but Iran could expect considerable Support from both.
But that could change.
Russia needs Iran as a conduit to the Indian Ocean as a way of avoiding being bottled up in the Baltic and Black Seas. Their warm Water Ports of Kaliningrad, Kronstadt, St Petersburg, Sevastopol, and Rostov, along with recently acquired Mariupol are all vulnerable to being choked up in the Bosphorus and off the Denmark Coast.
Iran however commands the southern Shores of the Caspian Sea, into which flows the mighty Volga River in its north. something which has provided Passage through Russia since ancient times. This makes it a valuable, uninterrupted Sea Route to Iran, which then has access to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.
China needs Iranian Oil to fuel it's huge Industrial Base. More than 90% of Iran's total Oil exports go to China who needs every drop of it, so it's very unlikely they would allow that to be disrupted. This is why they would have to support Iran against any further escalation by involvement from the US or other western Powers.
If America decides to interfere with that Fuel supply things could become increasingly fractious as the Chinese becomes more directly involved.
Then there's the BRICS Angle, where Iran has become a BRICS Member - so there are obvious Trade implications should they begin to falter.
Also, given their Status as a BRICS Founder India owes much of its economic Growth and position as a regional Superpower on the Iranian Oil they get so it isn't unreasonable to ask if they (another Nuclear State) might get involved.
This is why any War with Iran could escalate into a World War involving Countries that do have Nuclear Weapons.
Despite that It's all very tempting isn't it .... if anyone was misguided enough to do it.
The strategic angle .....
You have what seems to be an increasingly erratic President, who ignores the Advice of his chief Intelligence Officer (and who that was whispering in his Ear on Air force One that time is anyone's guess), who has had a Beef with China since at least his 2016 Election Campaign, who now thinks he could deal a severe Blow to his Rival in Beijing by eliminating a large part of Chinas Fuel Supply.
And he gets a Bonus.
He can trap the Russian Fleet in the Baltic and Black Sea - disrupting maritime Trade for his other Rival - Russia.
And all he has to do to achieve all this is destroy Iran in a false Flag induced War supporting Israel.
Couple this with some of the most pro-War Americans ever like Lyndsay Graham, using their Influence and it becomes increasingly likely.
Even if they are all wrong.
So a War with Iran is as expedient and strategic as it is anything to with Nuclear Weapons they don't actually have.
And if I can see this , tapping away on a Phone in South West England, they certainly can in the Situation Room in Washington.
This is probably what is being sold to the President by his more manipulative Advisors.
That it really is that easy to do all this and there won't be that many Consequences - like it was a "Deal" with maximum Return and minimal investment.
Except it isn't like that at all and the Consequences could be completely unthinkable.
Stealth ..... Or not stealth .....?
ReplyDeleteOne question I have about the much vaunted B2 Bomber is this .....
While it might remain stealthy in Flight towards the dropping zone what happens once it discharged it's Munitions?
Presumably, this will involve opening a Bomb Bay Door of some kind which completely changes the Radar Signature the Plane creates. And when the Projectile starts it's descent can it's trajectory be detected and traced back to it's Source?
What makes the F35 stealthy is how everything is enclosed in it's Radar proof Shell. Once it is opened and a Missile fired that no longer applies and the Missile creates a heat signature.
Reports arre emerging that Iran has shot several of these down in the last Week which proves they have an Achilles Heel that the Iranians can exploit.
It also means any remains of the Plane can be retrieved and used to research and reverse engineer. Thus, any technological advantage is lost.
This happened in Ukraine with some of the most advanced Tanks NATO had as Abrams, Leopard 2 and Challenger Tanks partially destroyed and abandoned were brought in by the Russians for examination.
So, if the Americans do decide to attempt a 'Bunker busting' Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facilities, not only might it not succeed the Iranians also have the potential to shoot down a B2 Aircraft which is one of Americas most advanced and secretive Assets.
Even as long ago as 1960 the Soviet Union using Technology available then shot down Gary Powers U2 Spyplane at a height of 70,000 Feet.
This could mean a B2 wouldn't be beyond that of today and some of Iran's anti aircraft Missiles - some of which supplied by Russia.
The U2 Spyplane incident was a severe blow to American prestige and a huge Boost to the Soviets.
History forgotten ......
ReplyDeleteI'm astonished at how oblivious some Americans are to their own History - and what makes it even more staggering is how high up that goes.
They seem oblivious to the preamble to Pearl Harbour in 1942, one of the defining moments in American History. How many Films have been made about it?
They are equally unaware of how Kennedy dealt with the Missile Crisis and it's aftermath.
Or how Vietnam 1975 was the precursor to Afghanistan 2021.
The latest is how Keith Kellogg whose Resume suggests he should know better compared Zelenskiy to Abraham Lincoln. Not only does it ignore the Fact that Maidan was an attempt at Secession by Kiev from 1200 years of its own History, it also forgets that Lincoln held an Election during the Civil War.
Zelenskiy cancelled his in May last year.
This is the Man who is acting as Americas Envoy to Ukraine and Russia.
It's all about the Social Contract .....
ReplyDeleteA Social Contract is like an unwritten Agreement between the Government of a Country and it's People guaranteeing certain living standards, social provision, and prosperity.
It doesn't just apply to liberal democracies either as any Government - even authoritarian ones - are bound by it.
President Xi of China is all too aware of his. That his position hinges on the promise of Prosperity to the Chinese People. That if he falters and that doesn't happen he could be removed. Ironically, in that sort of Government it is more likely than liberal democracies because it could be done by a Military Coup.
Modi of India also has his Contract with the Indian People, and India's Prosperity is due in part to the Oil it imported from Iran.
And both Countries began this long before Sanctions meant Russia began selling to the Chinese and Indian Markets instead of Europe because of Sanctions. Ironic how, after 2019, India was no longer allowed to import Iranian Oil but now has a vastly increased supply from Russia.
So what happens if a War means Iranian Oil no longer flows into anywhere?
Would Xi and other Leaders allow that to happen?
The Adage; "You're enemies enemy is not necessarily your Friend" (an Arab expression) applies here too, because while these were in dispute over the Ladaq region, India has had their Conflict with Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir.
Except Pakistan has said they would nuke Israel if Israel nukes Iran.
So, while a War with Iran might look expedient it certainly isn't, and Tehran has become far more pragmatic since the end of Khomeini's Rule. During it they were just as hostile to the Soviet Union as they were the US. They are no longer the isolated State they were in the 1980's.
And even when they were that Isolation caused by Sanctions meant they had to set up cottage Industries where private individuals made Weapons and Spares for existing ones to fight Iraq.
And the Notion of a Social Contract doesn't just apply to China either ......
What happens if the Straits of Hormuz become unnavigable?
If they do suddenly 20% of the Worlds Fuel can't reach it's Customers.
In a World whose Economies are creaking under the Strain of the Pandemic, the Ukraine War Sanctions, and Donald Trump's Trade and Tariff War spooking the Markets, hyper inflation, and even threats to Food Security, this could be the final Straw that finally breaks the Camels Back (another Arab expression).
The global Economy could cascade into a 1929 type Slump, maybe even worse.
During the 2007-8 equivalent - the Crunch - one thing that helped slow it down and finally reverse it was the growing Chinese Economy. So even though the Crunch was global there was still safe Ground, a Redout to fall back on.
It's the same with a local War or Crisis. A Summit could be called in a Venue 1000's of Miles from it's location.
The problem with what could happen with all this is there is no safe Ground to retreat to.
It's like a very long line of Dominos set up on a Table and all it would take is some Fool to flick the first one or a slight Tremor to bring them all down.
All this Talk about Khamenei....
ReplyDeleteDonald Trumps recent Claim that he would assassinate Iran's supreme Leader Ali Hussein Khamenei is not only reckless it's also very ill advised.
He isn't just the absolute Ruler of Iran, he is also a spiritual Leader of millions of Shi'ite Moslems.
This means any act of Aggression against him wouldn't just be a regicidal political Act it would also be one aimed at a Religion.
To understand the Ramifications if that happened you only have to look at what has been happening in Iraq vis a vis Iran since 2003. One Group might be Arab, the other Persian but what connects them is that Religion and thus it's Leaders.
Only the other Day huge Demonstrations were seen in Baghdad in solidarity with their Shia Cousins to the east of their Border.
It should also be added that Khamenei is the main opponent to any Nuclear Weapons in Iran because they are forbidden by Islamic Law.
If he was removed that constraint no longer exists.
In the small Hours of this Morning American Bombers attacked the Iranian Nuclear Facilities of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.
ReplyDeleteTrump is declaring it a resounding Success with all Sites obliterated. Iranian Media play this down, saying that Fordow is only superficially damaged and all Nuclear Stocks were relocated before the Attack.
In a very peculiar form of Diplomacy Trump has invited Iran to negotiate. He gives them a Punch in the Face with one Hand and a Bunch of Flowers with the other.
What makes it even more bizarre is how it was during the now defunct Negotiations of only 10 days ago Israel launched it's "preemptive" Strike on Iran which began this spate of Conflicts.
And it gets worse, because while the American Assault happened Iran's foreign Minister had just met the Leaders of Britain, France, Germany and the EU in a default Meeting to discuss Nuclear activity.
Tehran must be wondering if there is any point at all talking to any western Leaders, particularly as the American B2 Aircraft used were based at Diego Garcia - a British owned Facility in the Indian Ocean.
While Prime Minister Starmer was meeting the Iranians did he know about the impending American Strike? Might he even have consented to it?
There are so many things wrong with all of this ....
Firstly, the apparent bad faith of the American Negotiations before and during the Israeli Attack of Friday 13th. This destroys any credibility the US might have had, not just in Tehran but elsewhere too.
How it meant America could not carry out it's traditional Role as Mediator in any Conflict involving the Israelis. Anyone remember the Oslo Accords, or the 1978 Camp David Summit Egyptian Leader Anwar Saddat had with Israeli PM Menechem Begin?
That Britain, France, Germany and the EU seem to have no influence at all on the Americans to at least postpone their Attack pending the recent Meeting. That they are now also compromised in any dealings with Tehran.
Iran must be aware of or suspect British complicity as their Facilities were used for it.
In America the only branch of the Government that can wage War is the Congress and no attempt was made by Trump to obtain a congressional Mandate. Indeed, there are some who are now pressing for an. Impeachment of the President.
That the Attack will not quell Conflict in the Region and Iran will not back down.
The Houthis in Yemen have cancelled their ceasefire Agreement with the US and will fight to support Iran.
So, not only has the Attack not dealt a deathblow to Iran it has made a bad situation infinitely worse.
Westerners in the Region are being put in harms way .....
ReplyDeleteFormer Beirut Hostage John McCarthy must be watching all this with some Trepidation.
It was partially because American F111's based in Britain were used to bomb Libya in April 1986 he was kidnapped and held for 5 and a half years.
Indeed, all Westerners particularly British and American were advised to leave Lebanon for their own safety after the Bombing, . Given that he was a Journalist whose Job was to cover the Conflict in Lebanon he must have taken the suggestion seriously as that was exactly what he was doing when he was abducted.
As for any escalation in Conflict....
The Americans spent $1billion on their War with the Houthis this year but failed to even obtain Air Superiority let alone a decisive Victory. They waged War on one of the most impoverished Countries in the World, recovering from Famines induced by earlier War and still failed.
A War with Iran is an even bigger prospect.....
A highly advanced Country, the size of western Europe, mountainous in several Regions with a Population of 90 million. No one knows how many Missiles and Drones they have but it is thought to be in the 10's of 1000's and they have Air Defences.
They have already shot down several of the supposedly invincible F35's and they have an Israeli Pilot captive.
The Houthis exacted more disruption to the Red Sea than Gamal Nasser when he seized the Suez Canal but Iran's position is far more strategic.
So far we have only seen them use their long range Missiles on Israel and they've begun conserving them, but we have yet to see them use the many medium and short range Weapons in the Gulf Region.
They could strike Oil installations and Shipping while even attacking American Warships.
They could also make the Straits of Hormuz completely unnavigable.
Their long range Strikes on Israel have already closed the Port of Haifa and damaged Israel's only Oil Refinery. We might do well to remember how the Houthis did same with the Port of Eliat.
So what all this is going to do to an already battered global economy is absolutely staggering.
Hence why this is the War everyone hoped would never happen.
And this is if it remains a regional Conflict.
In recent years joint Naval exercises have been done in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman by Iran, Russia and China.
ReplyDeleteRussia and China have sent surveillance Ships into the Region presumably to provide Iran with Intel and Recon Support. After all, that's what NATO have been doing with Ukraine and America and Britain with Israel.
But what if the Iran-American (+ Israel and Britain) War continues and the latter decides those Ships are a legitimate Target?
As soon as they are fired on the War becomes a World War involving Russia and China in a direct Conflict with America and their Allies.
About the most effective thing that could be done is if the UN Security Council (or at least China, Russia and others whose Hands are still clean and haven't forfeit the trust of Tehran) convened an Emergency Summit, along with BRICS, spiritual Leaders, and anyone else of Influence to force a Deal with a Ceasefire and where Iran has to comply with a non Military Nuclear Program while Israel ends it's Nuclear Weapons Program completely.
ReplyDeleteThe sickening thing about the American Airstrikes isn't just that they were unconstitutional and defined by some as a War Crime, yet another Act of bad Faith where Iran endures yet another Attack during supposed Negotiations, how it could have cost a huge loss of Life, and was an Attack on civilian Nuclear Infrastructure (another Crime), how it has put Westerners in the Region in harms way, or how much it cost an already beleaguered American Public millions of Dollars, it was also completely futile.
ReplyDeleteAnd that last point is the salient one.
The Damage to the structure was superficial and any valuable Contents and Personnel had been evacuated.
It achieved nothing but will have far reaching and severe Consequences well beyond bombing a few Hills in a Desert. The Ramifications are huge, with Iran vowing to obtain retribution that would cause the War to escalate that can be devastating.
So the World moves closer to potential Nuclear devastation ...... and for what?
So Donald Trump can look big for the Cameras as he addressed the Nation this Morning? So Netanyahu can look like he's got some respite against the Iranian retaliation for June 13th? So America can flex it's Muscles in the Worlds Stage?
That last one is ridiculous because of how it could even become the opposite.
There's no doubting the sheer Power of the American Military but that only applies until it starts shooting Blanks. It also makes it look hamfisted and stupid, while threatening to drag everyone else into the subsequent Mess.
Meanwhile, it seems Russia has provided both Israel and Iran a quite feasible Off Ramp in the current and worryingly escalating Crisis.....
ReplyDeletehttps://tass.com/world/1978431
Medvedev suggesting both Iran and Israel should abandon their Nuclear Programs in the interests of Stability and Peace in the Region.
The Question is, would the Americans agree to it?
The Problem the Americans have now is how their Actions have prompted Iran to revise their Ratification of the NPT (Nuclear Proliferation Treaty). And it looks even more counterproductive as some Countries have even offered Iran their own Nuclear Weapons.
So their Operation and Israel's Attack on June 13th look set to have the opposite effect.
So, Russia and China particularly, and anyone else of Influence not tainted by the last 10 Days should force Israel to have a full Audit by the International Atomic Energy Agency and their Nuclear Program scrapped. A reciprocal Gesture should be made by Iran.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is, because Israel is so badly damaged by Iran's retaliatory Responses they might not be in much of a position to refuse and if an IAEA Audit is the difference between survival and complete collapse they might decide to consent.
Couple this with the chaos Iran could inflict on the global Economy by closing the Straits of Hormuz and maybe even Trumps apparent unpopularity after he preempted and caused a lot of this that becomes more likely.
What could this mean for Trump in America?
The subsequent increases in Food, Fuel and Energy Costs will severely impact Americans already struggling after the uncertainties of recent years, but Trumps Billionaire Friends can endure all that.
Except, how might People respond who are living closer to the poverty line than ever? Others who have to rely on Medicaid and Food Vouchers, and the Millions who will see the safety Net they have become to rely on disappear with Trumps vaunted "Big Beautiful Bill"?
So, his Actions on June 21st could have serious ramifications on his Administration itself right in the Heart of America.
The President who said he would never take America into yet more Wars has done exactly that, while his Policies look set to destroy the America he pledged to save.
Meanwhile, the Worry caused by Iran's further enrichment of Uranium to 60% can also be attributed to him.
ReplyDeleteThe JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) limited the Process to a much less assailable 3.67%.
This means had he not trashed the Treaty Iran would still be producing Uranium that is 56.33% less potent than what they were working on before the Facilities were bombed.
So, what was he on about every time he said Iran had been playing us for over 20 years?
They were very compliant, and while the JCPOA was one of President Obama's better moments we could ask anyone in the Biden Administration why they never lived up to his Campaign Pledge that he would restore the Treaty?
This War is starting to look like 2 defining Moments in American History......
ReplyDeleteHow People like Tulsi Gabbard and JD Vance at first oppose a Conflict - being Gabbard saying Iran didn't pose a Nuclear Threat and Vance who appeared to be against the Bombing of Yemen a few Months ago.
Even former Russian President Dimitri Medvedev said a few Hours of the American Bombing of Iran that both Iran and Israel should abandon their Nuclear Programs under the Auspices of the Non Proliferation Treaty and the supervision of the IAEA.
Then, within Hours Gabbard effectively rescinds her Statement and says the Opposite, Vance did the same with Americas Attack on the Houthis in Yemen, and Medvedev starts saying other Countries might start offering Iran their Nuclear Weapons. Whether that meant Russia is a Question for him.
This is like the Communiques Kennedy received from the Kremlin during the 1962 Missile Crisis.
The first seemed to agree with the President and was quite lucid in tone.
The second not quite as compliant and infinitely more rigid in its Narrative.
Indeed, it even prompted the Whitehouse to ask if the latter was from Khrushchev at all and had there had been a Coup. Or if was from him it was written under considerable Duress
You do ask if something similar happens with these.
I found myself sounding a bit like Jason Robards when he played Ben Bradley in "All the Presidents Men" after every Source seemed to be evasive and some would suddenly recant their Comments on the Watergate Scandal.....
"God damn it, when is someone going to be consistent here?"
Are we being lulled into a false sense of security? Nothing to worry about, everything's fine and dandy etc, except you have to ask what these People might be covering in this inconsistency.
ReplyDeleteIt gets even more bizarre ......
The Word Ceasefire has become meaningless.
Less is more it seems as Donald Trump told everyone via Truth/Social that things were peaceful in the Middle East and congratulating Israel and Iran for their fortitude in ending hostilities.
The problem is he said this while his own Bases in Qatar and Iraq were under attack.
So "Ceasefire" is increasingly becoming Doublespeak like the "Ceasefire" in Gaza, the "Ceasefire" in Lebanon and the "Ceasefire" in Ukraine.
"Ceasefire" in Israel-Iran Terms seems to mean we'll attack each other anyway.
Couple this with how Diplomacy and Negotiation seems to mean getting bombed by Israel and America and it all starts looking very surreal.
I think the whole Iran War thing by Israel and America was a complete counter productive Failure......
ReplyDeleteNot only did they not destroy Iran's Nuclear Program, they've also driven it underground.
Who knows where the enriched Uranium that was removed from the Facilities went?
For all we know it could have been sent to North Korea for further reprocessing and maybe even installing into a Missile System.
Tehran have withdrawn from the IAEA which makes it impossible to verify any Nuclear activity they do.
Simply put, Israel and America have not made the Region any safer as they claim, quite the opposite.
Meanwhile, beware of Videos on YouTube showing Missile Strikes in either Israel or Iran saying they were posted an Hour (etc) ago.
ReplyDeleteThe Video might have been but what the Channel owners have done is plaguarize another from days ago, so what you are seeing isn't in the last few Hours at all.
Here's a Question I'm always amazed no-one ever asks when a Journalist interviews any Leader banging on about "WMD's", "Terrorists" and "Regime Change".
The Question should be posed something like this ....
"So you are going to invoke Regime Change in a Country that you are 100% convinced has Weapons of Mass Destruction and is accommodating Terrorists? What happens if that Regime falls and WMD's that could include Nuclear Weapons are just lying around to be grabbed by whoever - which might even be those "Terrorists" you say they have?"
Before the ill advised, and futile Attack in Iran their Nuclear Substances were kept at the Places that were attacked and had been closely monitored by the IAEA. The Iranian Government were running this and in negotiations.
Now they are no longer at those Facilities, not being monitored by anyone and the Negotiations are no longer happening.
Which part of this do America and Israel consider successful and how has it made the world any safer?
A proportional response ......?
ReplyDeleteThe Idea of a proportional response is almost Old Testament Biblical. The notion of an Eye for an Eye, a Tooth for a Tooth is mentioned several times in the Scriptures.
What is ironic is how the only People who seem to be observing it are the Iranians.
Before their limited Strikes in Israel after the Attack on their Embassy in Syria and the Assassination of Hamas Negotiator Haniyeh in Tehran they gave notice so Israel and their Allies could prepare.
They did the same before their very recent Attack on the American Bases in Qatar and Iraq, done in response to Americas Bombing of their Nuclear Facilities on June 21st.
Their retaliation on Israel after the "day of Infamy" when they were meant to be negotiating with America was proportional to the death and damage done, and the tit for tat Exchange of Missile and Airstrikes.
America, the collective West and Israel have exceeded any Deaths meted on them by any act of "terrorism" from 9/11 to October 7th or what many now call acts of resistance by Millions of People.
How many have died in Afghanistan since 2001, Iraq since 2003, Libya since 2011, Syria also that year, Sudan and the list continues up to the Slaughter in Gaza?
How many have been butchered by their Clients in some of those Countries, and by their puppet HTS Government in Damascus since they took power last year?
The Death and Suffering Toll is horrendous and far worse than anything any of those these Actions were sold to us as opposing.
Going as far back as any Activity by the PLO in the 1960's or the other Palestinian Groups of the 1970's to the 90's, Islamic Jihad, Abu Nidal or any of them added together don't even come close to what Israel and their western Allies have inflicted on their People in the last 24 years.
How can any of this be called a "proportional response" when it exceeds what is even laid down in the Texts Israelis use to justify their existence?
I'm astonished ......
ReplyDeleteChannel 4 News - shall we say rather unobjectively - reported about Israel's Attack on the Iranian Arak Nuclear Power Plant like it was no big thing.
This is a 40MW (that's 40 Thousand Watts) Reactor that is closely monitored by the IAEA because of its Weapons grade Nuclear Potential and produces up to 8 Kilos of Plutonium a year.
Israel told Residents in the City of Arak to evacuate before they bombed it.
Arak has a Population of nearly 600,000 about the same as Bristol, England.
That's 12 times the Population of Pripyat in Ukraine when it was abandoned in 1986 after the Chernobyl disaster and many more that of Chernobyl itself which was also abandoned.
Those of a nearby Town called Khondab were also told to leave.
So, while this goes on without Question - and the ordered Evacuations weren't even mentioned like it was nothing at all - we are meant to assume bombing such Targets is somehow safe?
Anyone remember the Panic and Furore when it looked like anyone might bomb or otherwise damage the remaining Nuclear Reactors at Chernobyl, the Concrete Sarcophagus around the damaged Reactor, and then the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station?
And that would have been an accidental Strike.
It's like all of that has been forgotten as we are shown a premeditated and deliberate Bombing of Arak.
An inconsistent Narrative .......
We are being told by various People working in the field of Nuclear Physics and Nuclear Proliferation that Israel's Attack on the Arak Nuclear Facility isn't very concerning.
Why, when Israel was telling the People of the City of Arak to evacuate?
The City is at least 32 Miles away from the Reactor.
That's the same Distance as Bristol, UK is to Gloucester, UK or Washington DC to Baltimore MA.
If this was a routine Strike why are People that far away being told to leave?
If I was in Bristol, UK and someone told me to leave because they were going to bomb something in Gloucester I'd be asking what exactly are they attacking, and what with, to merit my having to leave my House 32 Miles away from the Explosion?
Why would I have to leave because of an Explosion 30 miles further away than Pripyat is to the Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor?
I wonder if certain Tesla and X owners are reading this because their field of Industry must mean they have a deeper understanding of Nuclear Technology than most.
ReplyDeleteGiven the Chaos that would ensue trying to evacuate a City the size of Bristol the question I'm asking here is what Risk did the Attack on the Iranian Facility at Arak pose that meant a City 32 Miles away would have to be emptied?
ReplyDeleteBut the most vexed point here being how this is yet another Hornets Nest the Americans and Israelis have ham fistedly stirred up that their Allies are going to contend with, and not only that but one that could become far more dangerous than it ever was before.
ReplyDeleteBefore June 13th and 21st Iran's Nuclear Program was transparent and accountable, with a Government prepared to negotiate. Now it isn't and neither are they!
And this is just another in a long line of foreign policy disasters coming from America that have done this....
"Regime change", "WMD's" and "Terrorists"
Here's a Question I'm always amazed no-one ever asks when a Journalist interviews any Leader banging on about "WMD's", "Terrorists" and "Regime Change" for the last 24 years.
The Question should be posed something like this ....
"So you are going to invoke Regime Change in a Country that you are 100% convinced has Weapons of Mass Destruction and is accommodating Terrorists? What happens if that Regime falls and WMD's that could include Nuclear Weapons are just lying around to be grabbed by whoever - which might even be those "Terrorists" you say they have?"
Before the ill advised, and futile Attack in Iran their Nuclear Substances were kept at the Places that were attacked and had been closely monitored by the IAEA. The Iranian Government were running this and in negotiations.
Now they are no longer at those Facilities, not being monitored by anyone and the Negotiations are no longer happening.
Which part of this do America and Israel consider "successful" and how has it made the world any "safer"?
What if Saddam did have those WMD's we were told he he had, and what if Al Qaida were in Iraq?
ReplyDeleteAfter the Invasion of 2003 wouldn't he have used them on Coalition Troops like he did Iran and Halabja in the 1980's? And unless that Coalition could seize the whole Country instantly who's to say the supposed Al Qaida elements wouldn't have obtained those WMD's either to use on the those Troops or remove for use elsewhere?
What if they kept them to use during the insurgencies that followed? These were difficult enough to confront without their using Chemical and Biological Weapons.
What if Assad had had some of these when HTS swept into Damascus last year and found huge Stockpiles of them?
The Israelis weren't even going to allow them to seize the former Syrian Army and Air forces conventional Equipment after this and bombed Airfields and Army Bases.
Maybe they saw how quickly and easily the Taliban seized western supplied Weapons in Afghanistan in 2021 from supposedly superior Forces and decided that wasn't going to happen in Syria.
And while Iran has now relocated it's Nuclear Program after the American and Israeli bombing, if the Iraqis had had one why might they not have done the same when the Coalition was being deployed in the Region, particularly if they were as portable as Colin Powell claimed at the UN?
So, against all this did the West sincerely believe these People had WMD's at all, or that there were Terrorists in their Countries, or was it all just a Pretext?
There are several things wrong with this Picture.
ReplyDeleteThe disproportionate Response .....
Since all of this started with 9/11 and the War in Afghanistan which is now run by the Taliban again the Arab-Moslem World can refer to the Books of Exodus, Leviticus and Deuteronomy and say to the Judeo-Christian World "You seem to have had rather more Eyes and Teeth from us than we've ever had from you!"
Acts of bad faith
The Israeli and American Attacks on Iran when Tehran were meant to be negotiating with America and Europe isn't the first time this sort of thing has happened.
Not only did Israel kill the Hamas Negotiator Ismail Haniyeh when he was in Tehran, they killed their own in 1995 when an Israeli extremist assassinated Yitzhak Rabin for signing the Oslo Accords with Yasur Arafat.
An Agreement that would have led to a Palestinian State.
So, where are we now......?
ReplyDeleteIt's sometimes staggering to realise how long all this has gone on now as 2001 was 24 years ago, but anyone with a Brain must see that the supposed "War on Terrorism" has been a disaster.
Afghanistan is more resolutely anti-western than it ever was, while the Taliban has had to deal with the Terrorist Offspring of the western cultivated Militias of the 1980's. Iraq endures constant uncertainty while rejecting the western backed Ahmed Chalabi, despite the best efforts of People like Paul Bremer. Syria is run by Al Qaida, who systematically murdered many non Sunni Denominations since December last year. Gaza is nothing more than an Israeli Meat grinder - who commits what would be called "atrocities" if done by anyone else, Yemeni Houthis have effectively won he Hearts, Minds and Respect of their Peers and effectively closed the Israeli Port of Eliat. You have to ask if their War with Saudi Arabia would have happened at all were it not for the "War on Terrorism" backdrop?
Parts of North Africa are a shambles with Libya - once the most prosperous African Country - a fractured failed State with open Slave Markets, and now an Iran that, for all anyone knows, could well be on their way to going nuclear and have no reason to trust the West at all.
Thanks to Donald Trump for that one after walking out of the JCPOA.
Couple this with yet more Acts of western bad Faith like the Scuppering of the 2022 Istanbul Agreement with Russia, the total botch up by the EU of the EU Ukraine Association Agreement talks in 2013 and the gradual melding of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea because of a lot of the above and the World - or at least the western Hemisphere - is in pretty bad shape.
And just when it looked like there were no more Acts of bad Faith Trump #1 ended the INF Treaty, while all his predecessors reneged on everything that was said to Gorbachev 35 years ago.
But while NATO did expand the eastern Hemisphere must be looking at the Munro Doctrine and saying to the West - you can keep it!
The problem now is thanks to all of this we are closer to Nuclear disaster than we have ever been.
The suspension of Military Aid to Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteApparently, America has decided to suspend Military Aid to Ukraine but because this is only temporary does it suggest an increase of it to Israel?
Israel was rapidly using up their Stockpiles of Munitions in their 12 Day War with Iran and were close to running out. So has America decided to replenish them at the temporary expense of Ukraine?
Does this also suggest that the current cessation of Iranian-Israeli Hostilities is also temporary?
That Israel only asked for a Ceasefire because they were parlously close to running out of Weapons?
So, what of Iran's Nuclear Program because of this?
Israel realised that they couldn't defeat Iran in a conventional War and suffered considerable Damage under Tehran's deluge if Drones and Missiles. The "Iron Dome" was found to be severely wanting as Iran saturated Israeli Skies and used up Israel's anti-Missile defences. Then they used their hypersonic Missiles which are impossible to shoot down.
This not only cost Israel in Weapons, it also became a War of Accountants as each Iron Dome Missile used was more expensive than the Iranian Weapons they were meant to intercept.
Couple this with the Damage to Israeli Commerce - with the Port of Haifa being unusable, Ben Gurion Airport closed, their only 2 Oil Refinery's attacked, and damage to Factories and Industrial Infrastructure Israel's Economy took a battering.
So, because of this does Iran realise that another War with Israel with them doing the same, if not more damage, Israel could resort to their Nuclear Weapons.......unless Iran also has them?
So the unintended Consequences of the years since "Axis of Evil" and everything that has happened in them, could be an Iran that does have a Nuclear Weapon.
And to continue the subject of Regime Change .....
Because Iran has been driven closer to Russia, China and maybe even North Korea, because this has also opened up the BRICS option instead of a dollarised Economy that leaves them prone to Sanctions what makes the West think that a new Government in Tehran would automatically reverse all of this and Iran returns to what it was before? They now see the West was more trouble than it was ever worth while simple Geography connects them with other BRICS Economies.
It's like the Russia of 2025 is not that of 2019 when Trumps first Term was coming to an end. Russia has effectively weaned itself off of the Revenue it got from Europe for it's Oil and Natural Gas, discovered it can do without all those western Products and Brand Names and thrown their Efforts into BRICS and Pipelines supplying China and India instead. Russian entrepreneurs have recreated Western Products so what is spent in them now stays in Russia - and so on.
So, even if there was no Chaos caused by a "Regime Change" in Iran why would that Government necessarily be pro western?
It's rather like the Iraq War resulted in Iraqi Shia Moslems gravitating towards Tehran rather than the West who really ought to have seen that one coming.
Here are some more People who don't subscribe to the Israeli-Western Propaganda that the World is somehow safer after their Airstrikes .....
ReplyDeletehttps://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/how-us-israeli-strikes-iran-made-our-world-more-dangerous
Meanwhile, Iran's self styled Monarch has lost a lot of what Support he had in Iran for his support of Israel.
The thing is Reza Pahlavi's Claim is a bit spurious anyway.....
Any of us who remember the Shah - his Father - who redefined opulence and self-importance could have thought he had a Bloodline that went back to the Days of the Persian Emperor Darius or Cyrus the Great. In fact his Father - Reza Shah - was nothing more than an Iranian Army Officer, while his Mother came from a similar Background. So, the Pahlavi's aren't some ancient Persian Nobility who might have had dealings with those of Mesopotamia or the Hittites. Like they weren't even from the Nader Shah Dynasty of the 18th Century.
In what - given the current situation - must be one of Histories biggest Ironies Reza Shah was deposed by - wait for it - an Anglo-Soviet Invasion of Iran in 1941 for his support of Nazi Germany. You couldn't make it up could you, and the Pahlavi's were only restored by an Anglo-American plot to overthrow the democratically elected center-left Mohammed Mossadegh fir his nationalisation of Iran's Oil from British control.
While the Shah might have brought in huge Reforms during his reign his Tenure was marred by the notorious SAVAK secret Police who imprisoned, tortured and executed political opposition. His was a peculiarly ostentatious Rule with some of the most extravagant Opulence seen anywhere in the World.
In yet another Irony it is believed the British then had some involvement in his overthrow because he also nationalised Iran's Oil in 1973 and was establishing Iran as a very independent Country.
The Ayatollah rejected the Claim - saying that the Revolution was exclusively because of its Support.
Whatever happened things couldn't have been great in his Iran because, despite, or maybe even because of, the advances Iran made they had the Revolution which swept the Shah away from power. Something a Population does not do lightly.
What the diminished Support for Reza Pahlavi's also does is show how counterproductive the Israeli and American Attacks were. Rather than increase any chance of "Regime change" it pushed it even further away. It's an ominously similar miscalculation that was made with Ahmed Chalabi and his return to Iraq.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, it seems the usual tired Narrative is being bandied around again about the Balfour Declaration ......
ReplyDeleteHere's what I posted as a Comment to it ....
"Neither Arthur Balfour or even Chaim Weisman used the Expression "Israel" or even referred to the biblical State of Judea. The Declaration makes no attempt to establish a Jewish State, rather a homeland for the Jews with the existing Population.
".....it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine."
You'll also note that he calls it "Palestine" not Israel.
The problems started after WW2 when Money from America and a huge influx of Jewish refugees tipped the Balance.
Jewish Terrorists were doing to us (British) what any Arab or Palestinian might have done - except they did it decades before."
It's also a very inaccurate Narrative because it chooses to ignore the post WW2 Reality.
ReplyDeleteNoted Historian Steven Ambrose said in 1974 (when the post War years were still fresh in living memory) that all Britain really had at the end of WW2 was the moral Kudos of fighting alone for a whole year after the fall of France and before Hitlers invasion of the Soviet Union in June 1941. We had very little else.
The real Winners of the War in Europe were America and the USSR.
Britain ended it on its Knees. Many of our Cities had been destroyed and had to be rebuilt. Obviously nothing like some in Europe like Warsaw, Caen or Rotterdam and many others on the mainland, but some like Coventry, Plymouth, most of East London and others had to be cleared and started again.
The British Empire was splintering with India gaining independence in 1947. We were hugely over deployed across Asia and Africa. Our Merchant Navy was decimated by the War in the Atlantic and we had Rationing of Fuel and Bread well into the late 1940's.
We were not the Country of 1917 when the Balfour Declaration was written and not in much of a position to enforce it. Particularly after much of our armed Forces were demobilised.
This Idea that there was somehow a sort of Anglo-American financing of the post-War Order is a Myth.
A lot of the Support the Jews got in that time came from America with money and weapons being smuggled into Palestine.
Here is an excellent Article about American complicity in the Zionist War against the British in 1940's Palestine......
ReplyDeletehttps://newlinesmag.com/essays/how-broadway-helped-the-zionist-revolt-against-britain/
It wasn't so much the Money made by the Broadway Fundraiser - which would be about 5.9 Million USD in today's Dollars - it was the growing anti-British pro-Zionist sentiment it fostered in Americans which began growing exponentially.
ReplyDeleteBritain struggled against this by trying to restrict Jewish Immigration into Palestine and ensuring some semblance of Law. Not made any easier by how beleaguered we had been made by the second World War and our devastated Economy at home.
So, what we now know as the current Crisis in Israel/Palestine was largely caused by Money, Weapons and maybe more importantly Propaganda from America in the late 1940's than the Balfour Declaration of 1917.
It's all too easy for some - mainly American - Commentators to blame Balfour than admit their own Countries Complicity in the Crisis.