Pearl Harbour 2......
There are so many parallels with the Israeli Attack on Iran in the early Hours of June 13th and the Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1942.
The Japanese were in Negotiations with the Americans right up to their Attack - using the Talks as a Feint while they prepared for it - rather like it looks like the supposed 'Negotiations' President Trump's Team were doing with Tehran were happening while Americas Ally Israel were preparing for their Attack.
Trump now looks to the Iranians and their Allies like Yamamoto or General Tojo, and is probably regarded in the same way.
This must have raised Eyebrows in Moscow as they have been 'negotiating' with America in the last Month while they had the recent Attacks on the Airfields and Railways to contend with.
But then, didn't they have 'negotiations' in Minsk which were - as Angela Merkel confessed - just a Feint while the West armed and militarised Ukraine?
Intriguing how a German Chancellor would say this after another in the Reichstag used Munich 1938 to buy time to further equip before his invasion of Poland the year after.
Given how dangerous this can be isn't all this utterly detestable that western Leaders should deliberately forfeit any Trust their Negotiating Partners are meant to have to give the Process any substance?
History repeating.....or ignored?
During the 1962 Missile Crisis Kennedy was very reluctant to attack Cuba for this very reason. That he did not want to be seen treating Havana like Pearl Harbour while there was scope for negotiation with Khrushchev. He was being pressured by his General Staff to do so, but he held firm.
Given the potential Consequences it's just as well he did.
Other similarities ....
Maybe he had learnt his lesson from the Bay of Pigs fiasco the year before when the same People talked him into launching the Invasion, and how it would prompt an insurrection against the Cuban Government.
Both failed.
The Bay of Pigs also failed because Kennedy wasn't going to get drawn into a direct War with Cuba - which is what those attempting to manipulate him wanted him to do.
So, about whether America and Israel are hoping attacks on Tehran will invoke the same and Iranians will rise up against their Government?
Didn't they learn anything from "Axis of Evil" when GWB lumped Iran in with it despite Tehran's reformist Government of the time?
Did the Iranians panic and scurry off to vote for an even more pro-western Candidate in the Election after Bush's Gaffe? No they didn't, and they voted instead for a former Revolutionary Guard.
Yet more History repeating ......
Is this "WMD's" 2, a rerun of the 2003 War in Iraq?
The thing here is, given that Iran doesn't actually have any Nuclear Weapons, any "smoking Guns turning into Mushroom Clouds" could very well be Israeli. That Israel could resort to their proven to exist Nuclear Weapons should things become so parlous that a Population who have never had a War like this on their own Soil demand it.
Or that Netanyahu could blackmail other Countries to support him by using this Threat.....
"If things get too bad I might have to use the Bomb unless you help" that sort of thing.
It's a Fait Accompli because if others do get drawn into it Iran's Allies who also have the Bomb will feel obliged to support Tehran. Pakistan has even offered to Nuke Israel should Netanyahu use his.
Iran's response to the Israeli Assault shows they weren't dealt the crippling blow Propaganda would have us believe while Israeli Authorities are doing everything they can to conceal the Damage it has done.
What might Iran do to any Gulf States that look complicit, and what would that mean for the global Economy if it's main Fuel supply is blocked or even destroyed? And might Israel/America do the same to any that side with Iran?
Like the Economy hadn't been battered enough in recent years by the Pandemic, Sanctions resulting from the War in Ukraine, and the Sino-US Trade and Tariff War.
This whole thing is a complete travesty and Israel should be condemned in the strongest terms for an unprovoked Attack on a sovereign Nation who were negotiating in good faith to end an increasingly tense Crisis.
And what did Netanyahu do when the proverbial hit the Fan?
Fly away to Greece apparently on the "Wings of Zion!"
So, about these Negotiations ........
A few months ago now I began asking if Trump was sincere in wanting to end some of the Wars America had started.
Or was all the Shuttle Diplomacy and publicised Statements that began with Russia nothing more than Bluster to hide the Fact that the War was going to continue?
Was the Confrontation with Zelenskiy in the Whitehouse that time nothing more than Show? That maybe the Ukrainian President doesn't have the Monopoly on being an Actor?
Trump could have ended American support for a pointless War as soon as he took office, but he didn't. He could also have done the same with Israel in Gaza.
That his distancing himself from Britain and Europe, trapped in a Policy of his predecessors making, could be meant to prompt them to increase their own Military spending?
And who might they buy a lot of Weapons from?
There are questions about whether Trump knew in advance of the Israeli Attack and even those about American complicity.
The problem Trump faces is either/or
Either he knew and the Negotiations with Tehran were just a Feint to lull Iran into a false sense of Security.
Or, he didn't know, which compromises his Credibility as a reliable negotiating Partner because why bother hoping for a Result with someone who is either oblivious to the situation or ineffectual?
So, how are any of these People supposed to trust any western Leader about anything when it looks like such a Culture of Duplicity exists?
What makes it even more dangerous are rumours that North Korea aren't getting drawn into the same Game and Kim Jong Un isn't playing, which tells you that the whole Process might be being seen for what it is.
America should not be gambling with World War 3, but that is exactly what they are doing.
One thing I can't fathom is how any of this was allowed to fester for so long anyway.
Couldn't Trumps predecessor Joe Biden have commissioned his former Boss Barack Obama as a special Envoy to Iran and re-establish the JCPOA he negotiated when he was President?
The terrifying thing is Americas War with Japan started with Pearl Harbour, but it ended with Nuclear Weapons.
I emphatically recommend People watch this .......
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/GQzgHBjQzf4?si=H4S2jGj3UIQSDcBR
It was a Film made in 1984 and has some ominous parallels with what is happening now.
Georgia revisited .......?
ReplyDeleteWhat if other Countries see sense and decide not to support Netanyahu?
Former Georgian President Mikhail Sakaashvili completely overplayed his Hand in 2008 with his invasion of South Ossetia.
After the "Open Door" Statement in Bucharest saying that both Ukraine and Georgia should join NATO he wrongly believed he would get support from some NATO Members particularly America.
He was so wrong, and his Actions in the Enclave where Civilians were killed by his Army shelling Villages and Towns were condemned by an EU enquiry that found it to be a War Crime.
(Yeah, it's amazing how much they've changed in the years since)
His Army got trounced in less than a Week by the Russians.
So, what if it looks like Netanyahu has overplayed his and others do what they did to Sakaashvili?
How long might he last if his People see too much of what he has brought on them?
In a paradox of supreme Irony any "Regime change" might actually be Israeli not Iranian.
And one Question no one seems to be asking .....
ReplyDeleteHow might the majority Shia Moslems in Iraq respond if this Conflict continues?
These are People who have already endured their own Wars. The Invasion of 2003 that turned out to be on a false Premise, 2 bloody Civil Wars and an undercurrent of Violence thereafter.
It was partial Iranian help by Quds Forces led by the now assassinated Qassem Soleimani that put an end to some of that.
They then had to see their Shia Cousins in Syria slaughtered in their 10's of 1000's by Agents of the (whoever) backed 'Government' of HTS.
How much insult to Injury will they endure, seeing Iran continually attacked before they demand something be done?
President Trump is going to have to swallow his Pride and there needs to be an Emergency Summit at the UN Security Council. This, and the Ukraine War are proving to be beyond his resolving and it, along with the recent Ukrainian Attack on Russian Airfields, have compromised his credibility.
ReplyDeleteAmerica, Russia, China, India, Brazil and Saudi Arabia particularly, should attend - the Saudis being the most influential Moslem Country - along with the other permanent Members, with a resolve to end all this.
When they do they should call it an extraordinary Meeting and dispense with all the usual Tricks employed at the Security Council - leaving the powers of Veto at the Door.
Earlier today President Trump cut short his Presence at the G7 Conference in Canada to return to Washington and make what looks ominously like preparations for War.
ReplyDeleteWhat the - erm - now G6 don't seem to realise is how diminished they look once that happened
After all, how can you have a Conference of the 7 wealthiest Countries in the World if THE wealthiest has left the Building?
Should Tulsi Gabbard and Robert Kennedy Junior resign?
ReplyDeleteYes, they should, particularly Tulsi because it's obvious the President has no respect for her Work as Director of National Intelligence.
In March this year she testified that Iran had no Nuclear Weapons and was a long way from finally developing any.
When asked about this as he flew back to Washington from the G7 Conference in Canada President Trump said he "didn't care what she said" about this.
How can she continue when he can so completely dismiss her Comment, particularly given the Gravitas of the Situation? He has totally trashed her Credibility should she represent American Intelligence to the International Community.
It's particularly poignant as it was a similar Scenario that meant she had to serve in Iraq in 2003.
The CIA reported Saddam didn't have any WMD's and certainly no Nuclear Weapons, and this was similarly rebuffed. The GWB Government then contrived to fabricate their own Intel to fit the Narrative, culminating in Colin Powell lying to the UN.
RFK jnr should resign in respect to his Father's Legacy and how both he and Jack Kennedy would never have acted like the current Administration is right now. That their Negotiations with Khrushchev were done in good Faith.
If they both do the World can at least see there is still some decency left in American Politics.
Indeed some of us, including Stuff I wrote on this Website thought they ought to have run on an RFK/Gabbard Ticket during last year's presidential Election.
Tulsi made a very emotive Video to Camera last week, appealing to the World not to continue on a trajectory that would lead to Nuclear War. She did it in a completely freelance Capacity. Did this suggest her growing despair at what is happening in the Corridors of Power?
Baring in mind what her Job Description involves and having access to all that Information maybe Tulsi Gabbard knows something that prompted her to make the Video.
ReplyDeleteIt could be from somewhere else in the World, but it could also be from America.
We don't know what is said in her Whitehouse Briefings every morning, but Trumps Tone seemed like there might be strain between the two Offices. That maybe he has had several very recent Arguments or Disagreements with his Intel Director.
Would Russia and China get involved?
ReplyDeleteRussia and China might not immediately get involved in any direct shooting War should America join the Fray but Iran could expect considerable Support from both.
But that could change.
Russia needs Iran as a conduit to the Indian Ocean as a way of avoiding being bottled up in the Baltic and Black Seas. Their warm Water Ports of Kaliningrad, Kronstadt, St Petersburg, Sevastopol, and Rostov, along with recently acquired Mariupol are all vulnerable to being choked up in the Bosphorus and Denmark Coast.
Iran however commands the southern Shores of the Caspian Sea, into which flows the mighty Volga River in its north. something which has provided Passage through Russia since ancient times. This makes it a valuable, uninterrupted Sea Route to Iran, which then has access to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.
China needs Iranian Oil to fuel it's huge Industrial Base. More than 90% of Iran's total Oil exports go to China who needs every drop of it, so it's very unlikely they would allow that to be disrupted. This is why they would have to support Iran against any further escalation by involvement from the US or other western Powers.
If America decides to interfere with that Fuel supply things could become increasingly fractious as the Chinese becomes more directly involved.
Then there's the BRICS Angle, where Iran has become a BRICS Member - so there are obvious Trade implications should they begin to falter.
This is why any War with Iran could escalate into a World War involving Countries that do have Nuclear Weapons.
It's all very tempting though isn't it ....
ReplyDeleteYou have what seems to be an increasingly erratic President, who ignores the Advice of his chief Intelligence Officer (and who that was whispering in his Ear on Air force One that time is anyone's guess), who has had a Beef with China since at least his 2016 Election Campaign, who now thinks he could deal a severe Blow to his Rival in Beijing by eliminating a large part of Chinas Fuel Supply.
And he gets a Bonus.
He can trap the Russian Fleet in the Baltic and Black Sea - disrupting maritime Trade for his other Rival - Russia.
And all he has to do to achieve all this is destroy Iran in a false Flag induced War supporting Israel.
Couple this with some of the most pro-War Americans ever like Lyndsay Graham, using their Influence and it becomes increasingly likely.
Even if they are all wrong.
So a War with Iran is as expedient and strategic as it is anything to with Nuclear Weapons they don't actually have.
And if I can see this , tapping away on a Phone in South West England, they certainly can in the Situation Room in Washington.
This is probably what is being sold to the President by his more manipulative Advisors.
ReplyDeleteThat it really is that easy to do all this and there won't be that many Consequences like it was a "Deal" with maximum Return and minimal investment.