The OSCE or NATO?

 The OSCE ...... or NATO?

Many of the Problems we have now are due to the gradual neglect of the OSCE or Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe.

This was an initiative that was meant to establish a working relationship of Security from Portugal to Vladivostok and a way forward in the post-Cold War World Order.

Originally conceived between European Countries, America and the Soviet Union, as Sergei Lavrov says it could very easily have continued with post-Soviet Russia.

Indeed, in conjunction with the CFE or Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty - signed by western European, former Warsaw Pact and Soviet Countries - it would have acted as a Guarantee against where we are now. Because everyone is in it - including Ukraine and Georgia - Russia would feel no Threat to it's Security.

Thus, there would be no War in Ukraine, while the Dynamic affecting the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement would have been very different.

It would also have had other effects far beyond the Lisbon-Vladivostok Corridor.

The enmity with Iran wouldn't exist because as an OSCE Partner Russia would use it's substantial Leverage with Tehran while Relations with China would be more inclusive than fractious. Even North Korea would see the Writing on the Wall and adjust accordingly.

So instead of green lighting NATO expansion President Bill Clinton and others like the UK Prime Minister and German and French Leaders ought to have been working to develop the OSCE.

The CFE Treaty was adapted at a Conference in Istanbul in 1999 so former Soviet States could ratify it on a national rather than soviet Basis.

The Arrangement began to unravel in 2007 when Russia cited NATO enlargement and how it increased Weapons in signatory Countries as the reason for their suspending it. They mentioned Missile Systems in Poland, Bases in Romania and other things which rendered the Treaty meaningless.

NATO responded by criticising Russian Troop presences in both Moldova and Georgia.

This was before the Georgian War of 2008, which gave Russia some justification for being there as Peacekeepers when Georgian Artillery began firing at South Ossetian Villages and the enclaves Capital Tskhinvali. Even the EU found in a subsequent enquiry against the Georgians for deliberately targeting Civilians and dubbed the episode a War Crime.

The Moldovan Story goes back to the Transnistria War where ethnic Russians - backed by Ukraine - fought for independence against the Romanian Moldovans, and it could be argued that Russian Soldiers were there to act as guarantors, particularly as the Chisinau Government were veering towards Europe and maybe even NATO.

As the War in Ukraine began after the Russian Military Operation of 2022 there were fears in Moldova that they might become the "next Ukraine", and even Sergei Lavrov once mentioned this. It was because of Moldova's proximity to Odessa.

Except, shouldn't this have been added to the Reasons why Zelenskiy ought to have ratified the Istanbul Communique in April 2022?

The Treaty guaranteed Ukraine's possession of the famous Black Sea port, and thus, a sizable buffer between Moldova and the Russian held Oblasts of the Donbas and Crimea.

Any Russian Troops in Transnistria would have been bound by the Treaty, while Fears surrounding their Presence and Moldovans position in European-NATO Geopolitics ought to have been the subject of further negotiations and a Treaty.

The OSCE and CFE Treaties - along with the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty - were the things that prevented Missiles from crashing into every European Capital and City. These were the Frameworks for how the post-Cold War World Order would look, while the START Treaty covered strategic Arms that meant the rest of the World.

As these formed Lines that should never be crossed the World becomes increasingly dangerous as each one becomes fainter by the Month, or erased completely.

NATO expansion effectively cancelled the CFE Treaty as Member States increased their Military beyond it. An Irony probably not lost on Russians who see it as akin to Germany violating the Versailles Treaty when it expanded it's Armed Forces in the 1930's.

One Problem President Trump has with anyone who has been paying attention is how he was the one who walked out of the INF Treaty - and then did the same with the JCPOA Deal with Iran. The latter was a Deal with Tehran that they should curtail their Nuclear Program in return for Sanctions relief. Because he did this, not only were Sanctions reapplied, we are now in the very ambiguous position of having to guess what Iran's Nuclear program might be doing. The latter is proving very dangerous, with Trump deploying Aircraft Carriers to the Region and rattling a very large Sabre.

None of this would be happening if he hadn't left the JCPOA.

Not helped by the growing Iranian enmity with an Israel that does have the Bomb.

Meanwhile, Russian fears of western Militarism shouldn't be underestimated.

It took heaps of reassurance from a plethora of western and NATO Leaders to convince Gorbachev to support German reunification. Everyone, from James Baker to Margaret Thatcher, Manfred Woerner to Helmut Kohl, and French Leaders, all told him "not one Inch eastward"!

Despite nearly 45 years of liberal democracy in the Bundesrepublik or West Germany, Gorbachev was still wary of how a unified Germany would bring NATO further east and nearer to his Border, such was the impact of Operation Barbarossa on the Soviet/Russian Psyche.

Subsequently how could People be shocked when "Gorby" came down firmly in support of Putin over Ukraine, rather than condemn him? But then, he was the one who must have felt most betrayed when NATO did expand, being the Leader in the Kremlin when those pledges were made.

The OSCE - along with the supporting Treaties - was supposed to be how the World would be once the NATO-Warsaw Pact Stand-off ended. Even Vaclav Havel alluded to this when he suggested a similar Arrangement in 1990, saying; the Soviet Union should join NATO, or the Organisation be dismantled as it's Warsaw Pact Opponent no longer existed.

Moscow didn't join, but this was finally deemed unnecessary as the OSCE and Treaties of Paris and Helsinki would facilitate the alternative.

What we are seeing now is the consequences of all this being neglected.

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WHY ARE TREATIES IMPORTANT?

Treaty's are crucial to maintain some semblance of international Law.

History shows us what happens when they are violated, the most significant being that of Versailles and Munich. The former restricting Germanies Military expansion, the latter meant to prevent it's geographical equivalent, violation of both resulting in WW2. Reparations being the formers Weakness and warned against by several People, including the Architect of the League of Nations Robert Gascoyne Cecil.

The subsequent War cancelled the Treaty's of St Germaine as Countries disappeared into the Reich.

In recent years the Oslo Accords died with the Zionist Bullet in 1995 and Nablus now has empty would-be Government Buildings, Gaza is reduced to Rubble, West Bank increasingly annexed and Palestinians decimated.

The CFE Treaty effectively cancelled by NATO expansion while the OSCE, with its origins in Helsinki and Paris, sidelined by it. The INF Treaty was rendered meaningless by further NATO deployment and development of dual purpose Weapons that could be turned into Nuclear Missiles. That finally died when Trump #1 abandoned it.

The JCPOA was meant to ensure Iranian cooperation in not developing Nuclear Weapons and Trump #1 abandoned that one too.

By her own admission former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said how the West used the Minsk Accords as a way to buy time to further arm and militarise a Ukraine that was being brought closer to NATO Membership.

And the very reason NATO expanded was because, while both Gorbachev and Yeltsin were given assurances it wouldn't there was no Treaty to ensure it.

There are others which have now become nominal as the Situation is anathema to their aspirations.

So, as these disappear or are made impotent by belligerence or contempt we could descend into a neo-dark Age like the time when arbitrary Powers could War with each other on a Whim.

What we are seeing is the gradual erosion of the Peace of Westphalia.

This was a series of Treaties signed in Osnabruck and Munster in 1648 to end both the 30 year and 80 year Wars.

It was felt that if these continued there would be nothing left of Europe as all combatants would have fought each other to death and that had to end.

It established several principles ....

Ending religious Wars between Catholics and Protestants.

The rise and sovereignty of nation states.

Foundation of international Law.

All of this being the premise upon which other Treaty's are built.

So, Treaty's are important to maintain a World Order that means Countries and their People can develop and live in Peace. Europe after WW2 enjoyed 40 years of it until the Balkans descended into Wars of the 1990's with the break up of Yugoslavia and the Transnistria War.

Compared to the Ukraine though these were very regional Conflicts that didn't draw the whole World into them. The Ukraine Conflict has caused Europe to move even further away from the Treaties that bound it, including it's very existence, meant to prevent War in Europe.