I write this as someone who used to be in CND (Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament).
Now the Architects of the new Iron Curtain have been voted out, something that many have felt was a severe Threat to World Peace can now become known. Something that was kept from the Public as we ended up with the same sort of Media we had during the Cold War - and something which is quite paradoxical.
Those of us who remember the Cold War are familiar with the Cliches. Soviet News Agencies, Tass, Izvestia - Pravda - the Names are synonymous with an Era we were all immensely pleased to see an end to. In the new Cold War the same thing seems to have happened - except on this side of the Equation. Vladimir Putin has been trying to get the Message across to the West about just how close we have been to Nuclear Catastrophe, except this has received scant - if any - Reportage.
This shows just how much control the pre-Trump Governments had on the Media, or even shows just how stilted the 4th Estate had become - something we saw when President G.W Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair seemed to provide the Byline and the Soundbite and the Media published and broadcast it - almost verbatim.
Hopefully now we can have a Media that observes the 2nd and 3rd Amendments of the Constitution and a President that encourages it. Part of that should be coverage of Mr Putin's Comments about the parlous state of Russo-Western Relations.
Robert McNamara made his Documentary called "The Fog of War" - a very candid Account of his Life and Career at the Department of Defence. He has the Courage to admit to being wrong about the Vietnam War - or at least, his President (LBJ) was by the time McNamara resigned - or was 'retired'. (Not sure we would ever get something similar about Iraq by anyone from our Governments - past and present, while Tony Blair was unflinching in his continuing justification for the Conflict.) That - while JFK could empathise with Khrushchev - see things from his perspective (thus the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved) - they failed completely to with the Government in Hanoi.
This applies recently with Hillary Clinton's failure to do same with Putin. That the Newspeak Media also didn't help, while both of these show that the Political Establishment of 90's-post 90's America had deteriorated since JFK (the Liberals) and Bush Senior (Republicans) - the latter having a good Rapport with Gorbachev.
The same had happened in the former Soviet Union as Mikhail Saakashvili was no Shevardnadze. That the first post-Soviet Georgian President would never have invaded South Ossetia!
I've said this so many times - if you'll excuse the Expression - it starts feeling like you're talking to a Brick Wall .....
If those People had got it wrong in October 1962 none of us would be here today.
If Kennedy and Khrushchev had failed to empathise with each other and listened to some of the wrong advice they were being given rather than any of the right (including our Man of Harlech) the 60's wouldn't have happened at all .......... whatever part in it People played.
Bob Dylan would only ever have made one Album while the Tapes of "Love me do" would have been bulk erased by the first Nuclear EMP. Any of the other Groups might never have formed at all or only ever did a few Pub Gigs.
The same goes for anything else synonymous with the Era, from it's Fashion and iconic Films to a certain couple of Bothers in London's East End.
My Dad played his part in helping to ensure the 60's kept swinging.
In the early Months of 1967 before the Marine Broadcasting Act offshore Radio Stations were being put under increasing pressure by the Government. It was being made impossible to supply the Ships with Food, Water, Personnel, Records and anything else that came from the Mainland as more and more Restrictions on the Tenders were introduced.
Caroline North was moored just off the Isle of Mann but they were supplied from the Mainland.
As a contingency Ronan O'Rahilly wanted this to be done from Mann and asked my Dad to negotiate with the Tynwald (Manx Government) to do this. He had contacts there so agreed to do so. Thus, the MV Caroline had a reprieve and continued being supplied from there instead.
He must have done a very convincing Job because later that year the Manx Government lobbied Westminster to legalise offshore Radio. Unfortunately Whitehall unrelented and the Marine Broadcasting Act was introduced.
Had the Ship not been supplied from anywhere and Caroline ceased broadcasting the Government and Establishment might not have been under any pressure to provide Pop Culture Media and Plans for BBC Radio 1 could have been shelved. What that might have meant for the concurrently planned Radio 2, 3, and 4 is a question that could have been asked as People continued to listen to the Light Program and the Home and World Services instead.
What I'm saying here is that, for all it's Swagger. Bluster, Attitude and sheer Volume Rock and Pop Music can only happen if there are other things that guarantee it.
In today's Context Acts as diverse as Niel Young to John Lydon's PiL had to cancel Concerts in Ukraine because it was too dangerous. Instead of hearing Mr Buffalo Springfield, CSN&Y and Crazy Horse do his Songs to 1000's a few saw Anthony Blinken play "Rocking in the free World" in a Basement Club in Kiev recently.
But then, in Russia Russians might get to see Steven Seagal play his Blues occasionally, but - were it not for Ukrainian backed Terrorists destroying the Crocus Theater in Moscow - could have seen Eric Clapton and some of the other People who have played the venue.
I've got a huge Eastern European Playlist in my Walkman - from Czechia to Vladivostok, Estonia to Romania - which would include Bands from Russia and Ukraine - and before they all started killing each other would do Tours and Festivals across the whole Region.
Because there was no one in Geopolitics guaranteeing any of it a lot of that has come to an end.
Roger Waters likes mentioning the Cuban Missile Crisis in his Interviews and while I'm not doubting his Kudos for 60 years of Rock Music during and after Pink Floyd who did he think was going to negotiate and end to the Crisis and set the Scene for the Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963 ...... John Lennon?????
They might be the most successful Pop Group in the World but because the Geopolitics has been wrong for a very long time its very unlikely the surviving Members of the Beatles will ever play "Back in the USSR" in the former USSR ever again.
The Forever Wars.............. I'll have to see if I can find the Stuff I wrote somewhere on here called "I'm so bored with the USA" where I show you how the World has been bullied, bribed and blackmailed into where it is now by 25 years of American Presidents.
From "Axis of Evil" - even if People in that supposed "Axis" were going through some quite progressive Reforms endorsed by the UN Secretary General - to "You are either with us or the Terrorists" giving everyone a fait accompli like the Non Aligned Movement had never existed.
That bullied other Members of the UN Security council to support it's War in Iraq.
To the Government that unleashed hell in Syria and Libya - which finally led to the former now being run by Al Qaeda and Warlordism and Slave Markets in the Latter.
That shares some culpability in the origin of the War in Ukraine, then sabotaged the Treaty that was meant to end it. (and yes, Boris Johnson had a Hand in that too). After which severed Europe's Fuel and Energy Supply.
Then couldn't provide 2 better Candidates in the last Election than Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
So, through all of this, all these Presidents have had to offer the World is War .......... and more War.
Meanwhile, I listened to a speech given recently by former President Bill Clinton.
He mentioned the renaming of the Kennedy Center and said it didn't matter what the Building was called.
In this instance it does.
The Kennedy center was so named to commemorate a President who made the formal Recognition of Civil Rights possible and helped prevent the potential Catastrophe of 1962.
It was a posthumous Memorial to all that, not a Monument to a current Presidents Vanity.
If Clinton had paid a bit more attention to the Crisis of 1962 he'd have been a bit more cautious with NATO Expansion in the 1990's and advised his Wife against anything of the sort for Ukraine when she was Secretary of state for Defence.
Kennedy and Khrushchev realised that each others Nuclear presence as close as they were during that Crisis was mutually unacceptable.
When the collective West were trying to force Yanukovych to abandon Ukraine's millennia long Link with Russia did they ever consider what Moscow might have thought regarding Sevastopol? That Russia could have lost centuries of use of its main Black Sea Sea Port if the Ukraine had switched Geopolitical Loyalty?
Particularly as the EU's stance towards Ukraine was concurrent with NATO Ambitions in the Region?
2008 showed how that ends with the War in Georgia.
So, what if Cuba decided to throw in it's lot with a Latin American equivalent of the EU while there was also an expanding South American Treaty Organisation that excluded the USA?
What would that mean for Guantanamo Bay if Cuba did that and ejected the Americans from the base?
It seems Presidents past and present on either side of the House want to have their Munro Doctrine and eat it.
The point I'm making here is this ........
Would the Americans tolerate Guantanamo Bay being given to the Cubans like they must have assumed the Russians would tolerate giving Sevastopol to an increasingly NATOised Ukraine?
Particularly as NATO's Expansion did not include Russia. What conclusion must Moscow have made at this? Who is it expanding against if it isn't them?
What makes the American/Western stance so dangerous is how it seems utterly convinced it is right and is prepared to see the World laid to waste to achieve it.
The 1962 Crisis showed the potentially fatal inconsistency in the Munro Doctrine and Kennedy and Khrushchev realised it.
If they hadn't, and hadn't striven to resolve it, none of us would be alive today.
And we certainly wouldn't be if every Soviet Leader - from Stalin to Gorbachev - had decided to throw the West out of Berlin. Stalin tried his Blockade, Khrushchev built his Wall, and either could quite easily have rolled up the American. British and French Troops deployed there - but they didn't.
And that was during the openly hostile Cold War.
More Speeches.....
And I've just heard a Speech given by NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Gregory Grynkewich where he talks about "Sabre rattling" and "Hybrid Warfare" against NATO Countries.
Nowhere in it did he mention the most devastating example of hybrid Warfare done to NATO Countries during the whole Ukraine Conflict - the American led destruction of Nordstream 2.
It's like were not being encouraged to remember that either are we!
We've had stories about Russian Submarines getting too close to Electricity. Internet and Fuel Infrastructure, allegations of Cyber Warfare and even apparent Drones. but there was no Hearsay or idle Rumour about the seething boiling Cauldron in the Baltic for Weeks in that year.
Every European who has endured severe socio-economic Disruption because of what was done on September 22nd 2022 should be asking this.
On the Subject of Iran, Syria and Libya - the West deliberately undermined any chance of their reforming at the start of the 2000's.
Everyone tells us that Bashar Al Assad was an authoritarian Dictator who began recidivating on his Reforms - but they don't tell us why.
They don't explain how the Stance in the West towards Iran was also felt in Syria whose Hardliners were given an excuse to push back against Assad's "Damascus Spring", just like those in Iran could do the same against Khatami after Bush lumped Iran in with the People behind 9/11.
Completely dishonest given how IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani was fighting those same People in western Afghanistan at the time and offered to work with western Militaries to achieve the same.
More of that in a moment......
The current Gulf Crisis.........
What if we ask what Iran 2026 would be like if the West had treated it differently in 1999-2001?
What if Western Leaders had supported Mr Khatami's reformist Government and begun easing Sanctions? Just as importantly, what if they had been seen to be doing it?
Even if 9/11 had happened - and despite his Quds Forces being part of the IRGC - Iranian military Leader Qasem Soleimani offered to help fight Al Qaeda and Taliban in western Afghanistan, and he even scheduled a Meeting with Representatives of the GWB Government to discuss this.
Bush cancelled the Meeting.
So there was potential that ought to have been capitalised on right there were it not for American obtuseness.
But what if that had gone ahead?
Then Western Leaders start meeting with Mr Khatami either in Tehran or in their own Capitals.
Not inconceivable given how - even a couple of years into the "War on Terrorism" with all its controversies - Tony Blair went to Tripoli and met Libyan Leader Moamar Gaddafi.
In 2000 something else significant happened in the Islamic/Arab World - Bashar Al Assad took over the Government of Syria after the Death of his Father Hafez.
Unlike his Father he was also a Reformer who wanted to open up Syria to the West - even floating Shares in Syrian Companies on the World's Stock Markets. There was even a "Damascus Spring" when he released Political Prisoners and a certain amount of political Dialogue was introduced. Critics' argue he didn't go far enough while the Ba'ath Party retained it's monopoly of Power.
During this Period there was considerable Pushback from Hardliners against which they say he didn't confront, but given what was happening elsewhere at the time - with Gaffes about "Axis of Evil" against his Ally Iran and talk of another War on Iraq - that was being made inevitable.
But what if the West had done more to support his Reforms? Thrown in some economic Weight behind his economic Liberalisation and enhanced Syrian Prosperity?
Couple this with the easing of Sanctions against Iran and the subsequent prosperity there makes Khatami's Job a lot easier.
And what if Saddam Hussein keeps seeing all this every time he switches on Al Jazeera?
Before all this he could always kick back and say; "the West doesn't like me very much but they don't like Assad or Gaddafi either - and they like Iran even less!"
What if starts to look like that no longer applies and he begins to appear increasingly isolated as a failed Arab Dictator in a Sea of Reforms? He sees the old Enemy Iran becoming increasingly friendly with the West. Soleimani even cooperating with Western Militaries in Afghanistan, Gaddafi meeting Western Leaders?
No longer the Power that could invade Kuwait and exert any sort of influence anywhere, while his majority Shia Community have also seen all this on Al Jazeera. Their Problem before had always been western animosity towards Iran - but what if that no longer existed?
When seen like this it becomes apparent there were far better ways of dealing with the Region than what we have seen in the last 25 years
What would have happened if - in 1962 -Khrushchev decided to make Cuba a full member of the Warsaw Pact, threw the Americans out of Guantanamo Bay and allowed it to host Warsaw Pact Ships and Marines instead?
How would the Americans have had to respond?
That would have been the equivalent of the NATOisation of Ukraine and what it would have meant for Sevastopol.
What if the Negotiations for a reunified Germany had insisted Kaliningrad become Koenigsberg and part of Germany again?
Everyone involved in those knew that would be a non starter.
So what made everyone think the Russians would accept potentially losing their heavily equipped and deeply symbolic warm Water Seaport which they've had use of for 243 years and they founded in 1783?
I write this as someone who used to be in CND (Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament).
ReplyDeleteNow the Architects of the new Iron Curtain have been voted out, something that many have felt was a severe Threat to World Peace can now become known. Something that was kept from the Public as we ended up with the same sort of Media we had during the Cold War - and something which is quite paradoxical.
Those of us who remember the Cold War are familiar with the Cliches. Soviet News Agencies, Tass, Izvestia - Pravda - the Names are synonymous with an Era we were all immensely pleased to see an end to. In the new Cold War the same thing seems to have happened - except on this side of the Equation. Vladimir Putin has been trying to get the Message across to the West about just how close we have been to Nuclear Catastrophe, except this has received scant - if any - Reportage.
This shows just how much control the pre-Trump Governments had on the Media, or even shows just how stilted the 4th Estate had become - something we saw when President G.W Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair seemed to provide the Byline and the Soundbite and the Media published and broadcast it - almost verbatim.
Hopefully now we can have a Media that observes the 2nd and 3rd Amendments of the Constitution and a President that encourages it. Part of that should be coverage of Mr Putin's Comments about the parlous state of Russo-Western Relations.
Robert McNamara made his Documentary called "The Fog of War" - a very candid Account of his Life and Career at the Department of Defence. He has the Courage to admit to being wrong about the Vietnam War - or at least, his President (LBJ) was by the time McNamara resigned - or was 'retired'. (Not sure we would ever get something similar about Iraq by anyone from our Governments - past and present, while Tony Blair was unflinching in his continuing justification for the Conflict.) That - while JFK could empathise with Khrushchev - see things from his perspective (thus the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved) - they failed completely to with the Government in Hanoi.
This applies recently with Hillary Clinton's failure to do same with Putin. That the Newspeak Media also didn't help, while both of these show that the Political Establishment of 90's-post 90's America had deteriorated since JFK (the Liberals) and Bush Senior (Republicans) - the latter having a good Rapport with Gorbachev.
The same had happened in the former Soviet Union as Mikhail Saakashvili was no Shevardnadze. That the first post-Soviet Georgian President would never have invaded South Ossetia!
I've said this so many times - if you'll excuse the Expression - it starts feeling like you're talking to a Brick Wall .....
ReplyDeleteIf those People had got it wrong in October 1962 none of us would be here today.
If Kennedy and Khrushchev had failed to empathise with each other and listened to some of the wrong advice they were being given rather than any of the right (including our Man of Harlech) the 60's wouldn't have happened at all .......... whatever part in it People played.
Bob Dylan would only ever have made one Album while the Tapes of "Love me do" would have been bulk erased by the first Nuclear EMP. Any of the other Groups might never have formed at all or only ever did a few Pub Gigs.
The same goes for anything else synonymous with the Era, from it's Fashion and iconic Films to a certain couple of Bothers in London's East End.
My Dad played his part in helping to ensure the 60's kept swinging.
In the early Months of 1967 before the Marine Broadcasting Act offshore Radio Stations were being put under increasing pressure by the Government. It was being made impossible to supply the Ships with Food, Water, Personnel, Records and anything else that came from the Mainland as more and more Restrictions on the Tenders were introduced.
Caroline North was moored just off the Isle of Mann but they were supplied from the Mainland.
As a contingency Ronan O'Rahilly wanted this to be done from Mann and asked my Dad to negotiate with the Tynwald (Manx Government) to do this. He had contacts there so agreed to do so. Thus, the MV Caroline had a reprieve and continued being supplied from there instead.
He must have done a very convincing Job because later that year the Manx Government lobbied Westminster to legalise offshore Radio. Unfortunately Whitehall unrelented and the Marine Broadcasting Act was introduced.
Had the Ship not been supplied from anywhere and Caroline ceased broadcasting the Government and Establishment might not have been under any pressure to provide Pop Culture Media and Plans for BBC Radio 1 could have been shelved. What that might have meant for the concurrently planned Radio 2, 3, and 4 is a question that could have been asked as People continued to listen to the Light Program and the Home and World Services instead.
What I'm saying here is that, for all it's Swagger. Bluster, Attitude and sheer Volume Rock and Pop Music can only happen if there are other things that guarantee it.
In today's Context Acts as diverse as Niel Young to John Lydon's PiL had to cancel Concerts in Ukraine because it was too dangerous. Instead of hearing Mr Buffalo Springfield, CSN&Y and Crazy Horse do his Songs to 1000's a few saw Anthony Blinken play "Rocking in the free World" in a Basement Club in Kiev recently.
But then, in Russia Russians might get to see Steven Seagal play his Blues occasionally, but - were it not for Ukrainian backed Terrorists destroying the Crocus Theater in Moscow - could have seen Eric Clapton and some of the other People who have played the venue.
I've got a huge Eastern European Playlist in my Walkman - from Czechia to Vladivostok, Estonia to Romania - which would include Bands from Russia and Ukraine - and before they all started killing each other would do Tours and Festivals across the whole Region.
Because there was no one in Geopolitics guaranteeing any of it a lot of that has come to an end.
Roger Waters likes mentioning the Cuban Missile Crisis in his Interviews and while I'm not doubting his Kudos for 60 years of Rock Music during and after Pink Floyd who did he think was going to negotiate and end to the Crisis and set the Scene for the Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963 ...... John Lennon?????
They might be the most successful Pop Group in the World but because the Geopolitics has been wrong for a very long time its very unlikely the surviving Members of the Beatles will ever play "Back in the USSR" in the former USSR ever again.
ReplyDeleteThe Forever Wars..............
I'll have to see if I can find the Stuff I wrote somewhere on here called "I'm so bored with the USA" where I show you how the World has been bullied, bribed and blackmailed into where it is now by 25 years of American Presidents.
From "Axis of Evil" - even if People in that supposed "Axis" were going through some quite progressive Reforms endorsed by the UN Secretary General - to "You are either with us or the Terrorists" giving everyone a fait accompli like the Non Aligned Movement had never existed.
That bullied other Members of the UN Security council to support it's War in Iraq.
To the Government that unleashed hell in Syria and Libya - which finally led to the former now being run by Al Qaeda and Warlordism and Slave Markets in the Latter.
That shares some culpability in the origin of the War in Ukraine, then sabotaged the Treaty that was meant to end it. (and yes, Boris Johnson had a Hand in that too). After which severed Europe's Fuel and Energy Supply.
Then couldn't provide 2 better Candidates in the last Election than Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
So, through all of this, all these Presidents have had to offer the World is War .......... and more War.
Meanwhile, I listened to a speech given recently by former President Bill Clinton.
He mentioned the renaming of the Kennedy Center and said it didn't matter what the Building was called.
In this instance it does.
The Kennedy center was so named to commemorate a President who made the formal Recognition of Civil Rights possible and helped prevent the potential Catastrophe of 1962.
It was a posthumous Memorial to all that, not a Monument to a current Presidents Vanity.
If Clinton had paid a bit more attention to the Crisis of 1962 he'd have been a bit more cautious with NATO Expansion in the 1990's and advised his Wife against anything of the sort for Ukraine when she was Secretary of state for Defence.
Kennedy and Khrushchev realised that each others Nuclear presence as close as they were during that Crisis was mutually unacceptable.
And on the Subject of Cuba and all that .....
ReplyDeleteWhen the collective West were trying to force Yanukovych to abandon Ukraine's millennia long Link with Russia did they ever consider what Moscow might have thought regarding Sevastopol? That Russia could have lost centuries of use of its main Black Sea Sea Port if the Ukraine had switched Geopolitical Loyalty?
Particularly as the EU's stance towards Ukraine was concurrent with NATO Ambitions in the Region?
2008 showed how that ends with the War in Georgia.
So, what if Cuba decided to throw in it's lot with a Latin American equivalent of the EU while there was also an expanding South American Treaty Organisation that excluded the USA?
What would that mean for Guantanamo Bay if Cuba did that and ejected the Americans from the base?
It seems Presidents past and present on either side of the House want to have their Munro Doctrine and eat it.
The point I'm making here is this ........
Would the Americans tolerate Guantanamo Bay being given to the Cubans like they must have assumed the Russians would tolerate giving Sevastopol to an increasingly NATOised Ukraine?
Particularly as NATO's Expansion did not include Russia. What conclusion must Moscow have made at this? Who is it expanding against if it isn't them?
What makes the American/Western stance so dangerous is how it seems utterly convinced it is right and is prepared to see the World laid to waste to achieve it.
The 1962 Crisis showed the potentially fatal inconsistency in the Munro Doctrine and Kennedy and Khrushchev realised it.
If they hadn't, and hadn't striven to resolve it, none of us would be alive today.
And we certainly wouldn't be if every Soviet Leader - from Stalin to Gorbachev - had decided to throw the West out of Berlin. Stalin tried his Blockade, Khrushchev built his Wall, and either could quite easily have rolled up the American. British and French Troops deployed there - but they didn't.
And that was during the openly hostile Cold War.
More Speeches.....
And I've just heard a Speech given by NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Gregory Grynkewich where he talks about "Sabre rattling" and "Hybrid Warfare" against NATO Countries.
Nowhere in it did he mention the most devastating example of hybrid Warfare done to NATO Countries during the whole Ukraine Conflict - the American led destruction of Nordstream 2.
It's like were not being encouraged to remember that either are we!
We've had stories about Russian Submarines getting too close to Electricity. Internet and Fuel Infrastructure, allegations of Cyber Warfare and even apparent Drones. but there was no Hearsay or idle Rumour about the seething boiling Cauldron in the Baltic for Weeks in that year.
Every European who has endured severe socio-economic Disruption because of what was done on September 22nd 2022 should be asking this.
On the Subject of Iran, Syria and Libya - the West deliberately undermined any chance of their reforming at the start of the 2000's.
ReplyDeleteEveryone tells us that Bashar Al Assad was an authoritarian Dictator who began recidivating on his Reforms - but they don't tell us why.
They don't explain how the Stance in the West towards Iran was also felt in Syria whose Hardliners were given an excuse to push back against Assad's "Damascus Spring", just like those in Iran could do the same against Khatami after Bush lumped Iran in with the People behind 9/11.
Completely dishonest given how IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani was fighting those same People in western Afghanistan at the time and offered to work with western Militaries to achieve the same.
More of that in a moment......
The current Gulf Crisis.........
What if we ask what Iran 2026 would be like if the West had treated it differently in 1999-2001?
What if Western Leaders had supported Mr Khatami's reformist Government and begun easing Sanctions? Just as importantly, what if they had been seen to be doing it?
Even if 9/11 had happened - and despite his Quds Forces being part of the IRGC - Iranian military Leader Qasem Soleimani offered to help fight Al Qaeda and Taliban in western Afghanistan, and he even scheduled a Meeting with Representatives of the GWB Government to discuss this.
Bush cancelled the Meeting.
So there was potential that ought to have been capitalised on right there were it not for American obtuseness.
But what if that had gone ahead?
Then Western Leaders start meeting with Mr Khatami either in Tehran or in their own Capitals.
Not inconceivable given how - even a couple of years into the "War on Terrorism" with all its controversies - Tony Blair went to Tripoli and met Libyan Leader Moamar Gaddafi.
In 2000 something else significant happened in the Islamic/Arab World - Bashar Al Assad took over the Government of Syria after the Death of his Father Hafez.
Unlike his Father he was also a Reformer who wanted to open up Syria to the West - even floating Shares in Syrian Companies on the World's Stock Markets. There was even a "Damascus Spring" when he released Political Prisoners and a certain amount of political Dialogue was introduced. Critics' argue he didn't go far enough while the Ba'ath Party retained it's monopoly of Power.
During this Period there was considerable Pushback from Hardliners against which they say he didn't confront, but given what was happening elsewhere at the time - with Gaffes about "Axis of Evil" against his Ally Iran and talk of another War on Iraq - that was being made inevitable.
But what if the West had done more to support his Reforms? Thrown in some economic Weight behind his economic Liberalisation and enhanced Syrian Prosperity?
Couple this with the easing of Sanctions against Iran and the subsequent prosperity there makes Khatami's Job a lot easier.
And what if Saddam Hussein keeps seeing all this every time he switches on Al Jazeera?
Before all this he could always kick back and say; "the West doesn't like me very much but they don't like Assad or Gaddafi either - and they like Iran even less!"
What if starts to look like that no longer applies and he begins to appear increasingly isolated as a failed Arab Dictator in a Sea of Reforms? He sees the old Enemy Iran becoming increasingly friendly with the West. Soleimani even cooperating with Western Militaries in Afghanistan, Gaddafi meeting Western Leaders?
No longer the Power that could invade Kuwait and exert any sort of influence anywhere, while his majority Shia Community have also seen all this on Al Jazeera. Their Problem before had always been western animosity towards Iran - but what if that no longer existed?
When seen like this it becomes apparent there were far better ways of dealing with the Region than what we have seen in the last 25 years
Further clarification .....
ReplyDeleteWhat would have happened if - in 1962 -Khrushchev decided to make Cuba a full member of the Warsaw Pact, threw the Americans out of Guantanamo Bay and allowed it to host Warsaw Pact Ships and Marines instead?
How would the Americans have had to respond?
That would have been the equivalent of the NATOisation of Ukraine and what it would have meant for Sevastopol.
What if the Negotiations for a reunified Germany had insisted Kaliningrad become Koenigsberg and part of Germany again?
Everyone involved in those knew that would be a non starter.
So what made everyone think the Russians would accept potentially losing their heavily equipped and deeply symbolic warm Water Seaport which they've had use of for 243 years and they founded in 1783?