As the Title suggests this examines the Quote from a 2002 Speech by an American President to one from a British Foreign Secretary a couple of days ago.
More recently, things have escalated even further as a US Carrier Group makes it's way towards the Gulf. This is how several Scenarios lead to WW3.
From "Axis of Evil" to being "on the Brink".
So how did we get here?
The recent Protests and State response in Iran which has caused the current Crisis where Diplomatic Missions in the middle East are evacuated and the West readies for War with Iran did not happen in a vacuum and started years ago with GWB.
Even the AI on Google agrees in response to the Question: "Did "Axis of Evil" cause the conservative backlash in Iran?" here was the response......
"Yes, George W. Bush’s foreign policy, most notably his 2002 "Axis of Evil" speech, is widely credited with fueling a conservative backlash in Iran that crippled the domestic reformist movement.
Key impacts of the Bush administration's approach include:
Empowerment of Hardliners: Bush's rhetoric provided Iranian radical Islamists with a powerful political weapon to use against their modernist rivals. By framing the U.S. as a persistent existential threat, conservatives revived militant revolutionary language and sidelined reformists like President Mohammad Khatami.
Stalling Reform: The "Axis of Evil" label was viewed by Iranian political elites as a "betrayal" of the cooperation Iran had provided during the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. This shift eroded the ability of reformists to argue for transparency or moderation in foreign and domestic policies.
The "Axis of Evil" Impact: The speech sparked immediate outrage across Iran's political spectrum, uniting both reformists and conservatives in condemnation. Analysts note that while public support for reform remained high, the conservative "Old Guard" successfully used the perceived American hostility to seize the political initiative.
Long-term Shift: This backlash contributed to the eventual rise of hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005, marking a significant departure from the more cooperative era sought by reformists earlier in the decade."
So the Situation in Iran that threatens to draw the whole World into WW3 began 24 years ago with a Speech by the US President of the time.
Something many of us have been very critical of in the years since.
What I'm saying here is a reformed Iran was exactly what the Iranians were working towards 25 years ago - without the risk of a regional, or even a global, War - until their task was made next to impossible by a misguided and ignorant Speech by an American President in 2002.
A Speech that ignored recent History the Presidents own Father was involved in.
To lump Iran in with Iraq was extremely erroneous given how they had fought a brutal War with each other in the 1980's - during which America and others supported Saddam. Iran remained neutral during the 1990/1 Gulf War and did not support Saddam at all.
To compare them to North Korea was even more erroneous as it ignored the Fact that traditionalist Muslims don't like Communists. This was exactly why America supported the Mujahedin in Afghanistan as they fought the "Communist Infidels" of the Soviet Union and their own Government. Or why the Soviets supported the Marxist Government in Kabul and were fearful of the Islamic States in their own backyard.
Both Foreign Policies happened when GWB's Father was the American Vice President.
24 years later you have an Iraq where many Shia Muslims are as loyal to Tehran as they might be Baghdad, an Iran who now probably does have dealings with a Nuclear North Korea, and a Geopolitical Alliance with both Russia and China.
Instead of a reformed Iran that could have happened without Bloodshed.
And one that doesn't now face the Risk of Civil War like the one that raged in Syria for nearly 15 years. Except this one would happen in a Country that could sever the Persian Gulf from the rest of the World, flatten pro-Western Arab States, severely damage Israel, and is far bigger and geopolitically far more significant to their Allies.
The Chinese angle .......
A lot of gung ho Idiots might think that putting pressure on Iran acts as a choke point to China but Chinese Oil imports from the Gulf Region amounted to half it's total Oil imports in 2024.
Any destabilisation in Iran threatens to render the Straits of Hormuz completely unnavigable which would include Shipping to China from all the Gulf States. Would Beijing tolerate such a huge disruption to its Supply?
The gung ho Lunatics might think it's a good thing if that happened, but here's why it wouldn't be.......
China supplies America with 50% of the USA's medical needs including essentials like Gauze, protective supplies and basics like Ibuprofen.
The EU is even more dependent - relying on China for up to 95% of its ingredients for Drugs like Anti Biotics.
There are many other Areas of Industry where China has become a huge supplier of Goods - from electrical and consumer Goods to EV's, Telecoms and heavy engineering - and while importers are trying to become less dependant on Chinese Products it won't happen overnight, Factories, Foundries and retooling can take years to develop, while the resulting economic conflict would merely add to the Tension.
And this doesn't include the growing standoff involving Taiwan, the world's biggest supplier of microprocessors.
All of this at a time when supply chains are under more strain than they have ever been since WW2.
If People think Price increases have been steep in the last 4 years what might they be if the Situation in Iran escalated?
None of this helped by what is happening in Venezuela and elsewhere.
In both "Threads" and "Countdown to Looking Glass" - Films that deal with the Preamble to Nuclear War the Scenarios start in Iran, but the Threat now is more real than even the most realistic of Films.
America was always worried about the Soviet Union taking control of Iran's Oil - which is why they deposed Iran's leader Mohammed Mossadegh and installed the Shah. They continued to supply Iran with Weapons until the Islamic Revolution toppled the Shah'ist Regime in 1979, after which they were concerned that the Soviets would move on Tehran to establish Geopolitical and economic Links.
Russia now has very firm links with Iran - being the main provider of Nuclear Technology - while Iran has supplied Moscow with Weapons used in the War in Ukraine. A lot of this in response to western Foreign Policy with both Countries. In better times Russia acted as guarantor to Iranian compliance with the JCPOA Treaty. As the Situation deteriorated that no longer applies.
WW2 started with Conflicts in various Parts of the World gradually merging with each other, from the Far East to North Africa, Spain then the rest of Europe - and finally America.
We are seeing the same thing happening gradually now and Tensions don't seem to be easing. Conflicts in Eastern Europe, North Africa, the Arctic Circle, the Far and Middle East and Latin America.
Unfortunately any World War resulting from these won't end with Victory Street Parties in Trafalgar and Times Square, or Red and Tiananmen Square depending in which side you are on.
They will end with nothing - because no one will win and everyone loses everything.
And also ........ How about the Iranian People themselves?
Given what happened in Iraq after Saddam and the brutal Pogroms against Alawite Muslims and Christians in Syria after the collapse of the Assad Government has anyone considered what could happen in Iran if the same thing is done there?
Alawites - including Women and Children - were slaughtered in Syria by Agents of the HTS Government even though they had nothing to do with the Assad Regime. Christians were murdered despite Jolani's assurances of religious Pluralism. So how about Iran after 46 years in it's current form and anyone who is accused of being involved with the Government? Given the Slaughter in Syria would the new Regime bother to establish Guilt or Innocence?
Then there was what happened in Iraq after Saddam, where Maliki's Government imposed discriminatory Laws against Sunni Muslims regardless of any or no involvement in the Ba'ath Party.
They endured everything from suspected Complicity to accusations of Terrorism and lost many Rights including those to their own Property.
The potential for a terrible Pogrom in Iran should the Government fall is quite real and could kill, maim and displace 100's of 1000's.
It seems the historical Amnesia applies to even more recent Phenomena......
ReplyDeleteWhile on her visit to Finland Yvette Cooper said how Russian Ships were responsible for destroying essential undersea Infrastructure like electricity and internet Cables and Pipelines. Maybe someone should remind her that the most devastating Attack on Fuel Infrastructure in the Baltic Sea wasn't done by the Russians at all and Nord Streams demise has caused severe economic disruption and hardship for People in western Europe.
She went on to say that President Trump could be diverted away from the Situation in Gaza by events in both Iran and Venezuela. That we should concentrate on sending Aid to the stricken enclave to help during the Winter Months.
The Palestinians had been getting Aid from UNWRA for Decades until Israel stopped allowing them Access to Gaza a year ago, during the last Winter.
Anyone stupid enough to think that a War with Iran putting pressure on China by curtailing it's Oil supply is a good idea should also remember that about 70% of all Goods traded on Amazon comes from there. Only 25-30% comes from America and elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteSo what would happen to Amazon if that 70% of Goods became unavailable? The impact on the global Economy should Amazon cease to exist has been compared to that of an earthquake. Everything from millions of lost Businesses to a Stock market Crash, mass unemployment and millions of People losing a side Income that might help them through the current Cost of Living. Crisis.
And even if the impossible was achieved and all the manufacturing for this and everything else mentioned or otherwise was relocated to America and Europe a lot of the basic Resources to make anything come from China.
It's like the Attitude in Europe - particularly Germany - that forgot how Russian Fuel powered it's manufacturing base. The EU might boast that it has a higher GDP than Russia but that was due to the Fuel it got from the Russians. The Ukraine War saw an end to this guaranteed cheap and reliable Fuel. Ironic given why the Russo-German Nord stream partnership was formed.
Meanwhile, what about Iran?
The Fate of the Strait of Hormuz could be either/or.
If Government loyalists prevailed in south east Iran they might close the Seaway to do severe damage to western/NATO economies that rely on Fuel shipped through there. If it fell to the Rebels they might do the same to damage Tehran's Chinese Allies. The Passage is only 21 Miles wide at it's narrowest, which is about the same as the English Channel. During WW2 German and British Heavy Guns fired at each other for most of the War, damaging Ports, Ships and Towns on each side. It became known as "Hellfire Corner", and this was in an Era before guided Missiles and Drones. Look at what the Houthis did to the Red Sea and Eliat with their comparatively cheap Projectiles.
As it starts to look like there might be western Intrigue involved in the 'Protests' in Iran - which looks like a repeat of Syria 2011 or Ukraine 2014 - maybe they're were pissed in Washington 24 years ago that Iranians wanted Reforms in Iran's image, not those of America. Or that the Whitehouse refused to acknowledge any of it until they had some involvement in it. It does seem strange that the President is so protective of 'Protesters' in Iran in 2026 when America has all but ignored those of elsewhere. Indeed, when People protested in Bahrain a few years ago Washington came down on the side of the Government.
ReplyDeleteI can't recommend this Film emphatically enough given what is happening now ......
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/D7CT6fcZI64?si=lXtvVFOZP_9P33YM
There were things the Media of the time didn't exactly fall over themselves to tell you at the start of this Century.
ReplyDeleteOne being how Iran had been helping the Coalition in western Afghanistan to fight Taliban and Al Qaida in the year or so before the unfortunate Speech. That they were as committed as everyone else to fight Terrorism.
The other was how Qassem Soleimani - the former Iranian Defence Chief who was assassinated during Trump #1 - had arranged a Meeting with White House Staff to discuss Plans to fight Terrorist Groups but the Americans refused to attend.
What western Media and Politicians ought to have been doing during that time was building on this Spirit of cooperation.
By alienating the Iranians not only did they set in motion what we have now they also shattered their own Consensus which emerged in the aftermath of 9/11.
To: President Donald J Trump.
ReplyDelete1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington
DC 25000
Dear Mr President.
Might I respectfully remind you that the Iranians had a "Nuclear Deal" with America and other Signatories - the P5+1 of the Security Council.
It was called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA.
They had, and had kept to, this since it was reached in July 2015, until America withdrew in May 2018.
Weren't all Parties in negotiations to restore it in June 2025, until proceedings were interrupted by an Assault first by Israel and then America?
How can any Negotiations be done in any good faith while this happens?
This could be asked by anyone trying to negotiate anything, including your Predecessor President Franklin Delano Roosevelt when he was negotiating with the Japanese in December 1941.
Respectfully yours.
While that Fleet is in the Persian Gulf the Americans should spare us the Crocodile Tears for Reforms in Iran.
ReplyDeleteTheir 'concern' for any Reformers today is as empty and hollow as it was for them 25 years ago - when Iran was doing exactly that - and for any in Iraq whose subsequent Wars killed and mained 100's of 1000's of People.
It's the same with Syria which went through more than a Decade of Trauma only to be run by Al Qaida. A broken Bottle in the Face of anyone who fought them in Afghanistan (including Iranians) and Iraq and the many 1000's who died as 'collateral Casualties' in that Fighting.
Iran currently has a Reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian whose job is made as difficult as it was for Mohammed Khatami and for similar Reasons. A Masoud Pezeshkian who was in Negotiations when he was attacked in June last year.
And if any War on Iran escalates to global Nuclear Conflict - which many have said it could including me - any Talk of "reforms" anywhere is completely meaningless.
It's also starting to look to anyone paying attention that, as far as some western Countries are concerned, including Israel, Countries like Iran aren't allowed to reform unless it's in the image of those western Countries. Even Gaddafi in Libya was having meetings with Prime Minister Tony Blair not long before he was deposed with a lot of western and NATO intrigue. Once one of the wealthiest Countries in Africa is now wrecked by the Civil Wars that raged there and the Warlords who now run some of it.
If a Country reforms without that War or Intrigue the West can't apply the usual Rhetorics about Authoritarianism and Regime that it always uses.
It was the same with the Palestinians when Israel began supporting a new Organisation called Hamas. Not anti-Zionist propaganda as Articles in the the Times of Israel and the Analyst corroborate this.
They did it to undermine secular Palestinians like the PLO who were gradually becoming malleable to Negotiations with the Israelis. Yasur Arafat finally recognised Israel's existence, but by then Hamas had become a powerful player in Palestinian Affairs. After Arafat died his Successor Massoud Abbas had become so compromised so as not to be taken seriously by most Palestinians to the benefit of Hamas.
This suits the Israeli Agenda because they use it to legitimise their War on the Palestinians.
Something they couldn't do if there was a more conciliatory Power in charge.
Anyone genuinely concerned about Reforms in Iran should ask what life might be like for those Iranians who supported them were it not for the "Axis of Evil" Gaffe?
ReplyDeleteBut then, anyone genuinely concerned about the "War on Terrorism" should ask what Afghanistan might have been like in 2021 had Iran not been alienated by the Gaffe and continued their Work in the western Borderlands of the Country? Not only might things have been a lot easier to contain and confronting the Taliban and Al Qaida more effective, we might also have not seen the Rout that happened that year.
Internal Reforms are always better than an external Foist.
ReplyDeleteThe Reforms Iran were attempting 25 years ago were at their own Volition so, while they might have had some internal Opposition, they can be seen as a genuine wish of the People for modernisation. It was the same when Masoud Pezeshkian was elected recently as a Departure from the previous Leadership of Ebrahim Raissi.
What the West should have done 25 years ago is support these Movements, but do so so as not to create the Impression that these were in any way Puppet Governments.
It's the difference between someone like Khatami in Iran and Ahmed Chalabi in Iraq.
The western Approach isn't just confined to Iran and other Arab Countries either
ReplyDeleteYou only have to see what Eurocentric Western Hubris and American interference did to a Ukraine they expected to abandon 1200 years of History and Heritage.
The claims to want Reform is as inconsistent as the Green Lobby that wants renewable Energy from Lithium in Ukraine's disputed Regions, and is prepared to fight a severely ecologically damaging War to obtain it.
Meanwhile, even if a War in the Gulf didn't escalate to a global Nuclear Conflict or even a shooting War that spreads to other Regions the Impact any disruption to the World's Fuel and Energy Supply would be catastrophic.
And even more devastating that either World War because far more of the World is much more dependent on Oil than it was 80 and 107 years ago.
Railways ran on Coal, many Ships still had Coal Turbines as did lot of the World's Power Stations.
Electricity Consumption from the latter was also considerably less.
During and long after World War 2 many People in the developed World still lived like they did in the 1920's and 30's.
A lot of Agriculture in some of the Worlds most populated Regions like India, Indonesia and China along with a lot of Asia and most of Africa and Latin America still used Livestock to pull Wagons and Ploughs.
Some Gulf States like the United Arab Emirates must have realised this and refused to support the American War Effort on Iran.
All this at a time when everything is under more strain that it has ever been.
And you wouldn't have to close the Straits of Hormuz or Red Sea to cause a global Fuel and Energy Crisis.
ReplyDeleteWhat Sea Captain of a civilian Ship, or it's owner is going to sail into the Gulf or Red Sea when a shooting War is going on? How many Insurance Companies would even allow them to?
The huge Oil Tankers and LNG Ships particularly are very vulnerable and while Donald Trump's Aircraft Carriers might sustain several Strikes before sinking it would only take a single Drone or Missile to do the same to the former. Given the intensity of the fighting and Weapons exchange the chance of that happening is very likely.
How can Trump guarantee that won't happen?
He can't.
While some Arab Countries have refused certain types of Support for the American and Israeli War Plans (closing Airspace, not allowing Facilities to be used etc) maybe they know what this means for the Region even if the Americans pretend they don't.
Americas recent Activities in Venezuela prompt questions about what comes next
If a War with Iran effectively ruins the Arab World - via it's Oil Economy - Venezuela has the biggest Deposits in the World. If America then acquires those Reserves they can then sell them to the rest of a World that used to buy it from the Arabs.
If People think this is impossible one only has to see what they have done to their European Allies. Effectively severing their Supply of cheap Fuel from Russia and selling them theirs at anything up to 6 times the amount.
Meanwhile, it beggars belief that the IRGC have become a proscribed Organisation - in other words Terrorists.
These are the same People who fought Al Qaida and the Taliban in western Afghanistan and whose Quds Forces fought ISIS in Iraq. They made a sizable contribution to putting an end to some of the terrible things being done that even Saddam didn't do and helped stabilise the Country after a bloody Civil War.
What it also says to Tehran is there's no point in any Negotiations once your Sovereign Army has been tagged like this because they no longer recognise your Legitimacy.
It also helps legitimise any War against them because it side steps any international Laws on War against a sovereign State. You also don't have to obtain any UN Mandate because you are now fighting "Terrorists" rather than an Army.
It suggests that a lot of the Talk about "Negotiations" and a "Deal" doesn't contain much substance and the decision to go to war has already been made.
Given that it was announced by Kaja Kallas the European Union Vice President there will be no interlocution or concerns raised by the EU.
The Days of Politicians like Gerhard Schroeder and Jacques Chirac are long gone in Europe.
No Gulf State - however neutral - is going to be able to affordably export Oil while a War exists with America and Israel against Iran. It would be extremely dangerous for any Shipping to sail through it, particularly while Sanctions busting Russian Ships are being intercepted. Suddenly no Ship would be above suspicion and the potential for Chaos is huge.
ReplyDeleteShipping Insurance Companies are very strict about Vessels sailing in Warzones and charge very high Premiums for any that do, while Crews and Owners would be reluctant to do so anyway.
So, Iran might not have to seal off the Straits of Hormuz for this to happen. The mere fact that the Area has become a Warzone will do this.
You only have to look at what happened in the Black Sea and how "Grain Corridors" had to be negotiated to allow Ships to carry Ukrainian Produce to the rest of the World. All Ships were at risk - not just Russian and Ukrainian ones - while we're seeing the impact on Food Prices everywhere.
The subsequent Cost of Living Crisis has devoured People's Incomes, Welfare, Pensions and Life Savings enough as it is without this extra Layer of Disruption.
And should we all now thank Kaja Kallas for advancing the further Demise of International Law?
ReplyDeleteThanks to the proscribing of the IRGC by her European Union the Iranians have retaliated by dubbing all European Armies as "Terrorists". This further diminishes their (EU Troops) Legitimacy in the Opinions of any Areas that might support Iran and even some neutral ones.
Her announcing the Proscribement would be like someone in 1970's-90's Britain confusing the Irish Free State Army with the Provisional IRA or the British Army with one of the Loyalist Paramilitary Groups.
It shows a complete lack of understanding of Iran and the most basic Nuances on the Subject.
The IRGC are part of the mainstream Iranian Military and some aspects of it even more significant. The IRGC Navy is Iran's main Force in the Gulf for example.
Her timing couldn't be any worse either. All it has done is make a toxic situation even more poisonous and if there are any 'negotiations' the task is made even more difficult than it already is.
Imagine if Kennedy had accused the KGB of being "Terrorists" in October 1962!
This is made no better by it being difficult to believe anything President Trump says.
Not only is this the President who abandoned the JCPOA, it's the same one who told us in June last year that Iran's 'Nuclear Weapons' Program had been utterly destroyed by the American B2 Assault that month.
So either the Facilities were destroyed - or why the hoopla about them now?
But then, the Ambiguity of their existence at all is because of him and the ending of the JCPOA.
Also, of course, what happened in June last year did so the last time Iran was in Talks with America. There's probably some acerbic Humour on the Streets of Tehran now saying; if you want to be attacked by Israel or the US start negotiating with them.
Particularly after Israel assassinated Hamas Negotiator Ismail Haniyeh.
I'm not naive and realise that Iran does everything with their own Agenda, but there are ways you should go about dealing with them and ways you shouldn't. Western and Israeli Leaders have thus far done the latter.
Iran has now summoned all EU Ambassadors to protest at the proscribing of IRGC as "Terrorists".
ReplyDeleteKaja Kallas couldn't have timed it any worse when she announced the EU had done this.
In an already strained diplomatic Climate where Negotiations to try and end the Crisis are flimsy at best this does nothing to defuse it. Tehran might ask for clarification on the Comments and how it relates to President Trump and the US military build up in the Gulf.
Imagine if JFK had called the KGB "Terrorists" during the very fraught diplomatic Wrangle during the Cuban missile Crisis, or Khrushchev said same about the CIA. It would have killed off any chance of a Settlement and started a Conflict.
As anyone in the Gulf Region would tell Ms Kallas; you don't put Petrol on an already dangerous Conflagration.
I would like to reiterate the original premise of this Post about how Iran's Reformist Movement was sacrificed in a ham fisted and badly informed popularist Speech by an American President 24 years ago. Eager to capitalise on 9/11 GWB - or at least his Speechwriter - ignored the Nuances of Iran's political scene at the time and gave the Agenda to the conservative Backlash that happened because of it.
ReplyDeleteFast forward to 2026 and we have apparent Protests which seem to have been hijacked by armed Provocateurs who created Street Battles and actual Small Arms exchanges resulting in many 100's of Deaths. People who might still be alive if the Gun Men had stayed away.
But as I've mentioned Iran was set on a Course of Reforms a quarter of a Century ago that would have yielded considerable Results had they not been interrupted and scuppered by that Speech.
But then, the Number of Deaths - which depends on who you believe either way - could pale into insignificance if President Trump does launch his Assault on Iran.
Unless Smart Weapons have become so clever they can distinguish between a Reformist and a Conservative a lot of those killed will be the former.
Last year Iran elected a Reformist whose Mandate is to do exactly what the Protestors are asking for, but while Khatami's Job was made next to impossible by GWB's Speech, Mr Pezeshkian's Task was severely set back by the Attacks by Israel and America.
In recent Hours Mr Pezeshkian might have commissioned Emissaries to bolster Negotiations with American Representatives, but given what happened last year he probably also mobilised Iranian Civil Defence and distributed Food and Medical supplies.
ReplyDeleteWhat is intriguing is how - before meeting the Iranians - US Envoy Stephen Witkoff will be visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Is this to glean the Israeli Perspective on the Negotiations or to reiterate Israel's demand for a triple Agreement with Iran?
Stop any Nuclear enrichment Program.
Stop supporting other anti-Israeli Groups in the Region
Scrap ballistic Missiles.
This could backfire on the Process as Iran sees Witkoff as an Emissary for Israel as much as America.
Meanwhile, a couple of things have happened which should be examined....
An Iranian Shaheed 139 Drone was allegedly shot down by F35's as it was seen approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln. Why it was there hasn't been confirmed, but given that that Drone can be used for Reconnaissance it isn't inconceivable or unreasonable to suggest it was sent to monitor the huge US Navy presence in the Region.
Also, several Iranian Boats tried intercepting an American flagged Tanker in the Straits of Hormuz.
Apparently they ordered it to stop and requested it be boarded but the Ship continued. The Straits are very narrow and it could have been in or very close to Iranian Waters.
Both Incidents can't be at all surprising as Iran tries to protect it's Territory by either reconnoitring potentially hostile Military Assets or wanting to question Crews of any Vessels from a potentially belligerent Nation. That Ship was similarly flagged to the huge military Fleet so why wouldn't the Iranians regard it with Suspicion?
During the Missile Crisis American Planes flew very close to Soviet Ships approaching the quarantine Zone, wanting to know what they were carrying, while Reconnaissance flights were sent over San Christobel in Cuba.
Anyone who remembers the Cold War might remember those Spy Ships sailing of our Coast in the North Sea.
All of this is why the Situation is very tense and the more it continues the riskier it gets.
It should also be remembered that the US Navy were demanding Soviet Ships stop and be boarded for inspection in 1962. They would be addressed asking to do so in Russian, while there were even plans to shoot and disable the Rudders of Ships that wouldn't stop, and Soviet Submarines were being depth charged
ReplyDeleteThis was being done much further away from Cuba than the American Tanker was from Iran.
Something that President Trump should also consider is how the 1962 Crisis involved mutual Force. Either side could do as much fatal Damage to the other so it was mutually beneficial to resolve it. Neither demanded what could be seen as an unconditional Surrender by the other. Quite the opposite as Kennedy even told the Media not to say; "the Soviets backed down!"
Iran is effectively being asked to do just that, and given what happened in Libya after Gaddafi did the same you can understand their Reticence.
Not helped by it being done by an attempted force of Arms.
President Trump Trump.shouod remember that there's a difference between a Treaty - which is based on mutual Consent and a Fait Accompli - which isn't.
The JCPOA was a positive Treaty.
It meant cooperation between Iran and the UN Security Council. Something that could lead to other mutual Projects.
The fact that it involved the Security Council gave it multilateral Legitimacy, unlike whatever emerges from this unilateral 'diplomacy'.
It also meant Countries could trade with Iran again. They lost Billions in Trade when Trump#1 cancelled the Treaty and they couldn't, so it wasn't just a military based Agreement.
Whatever Agreement - if any - comes from these Meetings it won't yield that benefit. Kaja Kallas in all her innate Wisdom burned that Bridge when she announced the EU proscribing of the IRGC.
In one fell Swoop - from Lisbon to Bratislava, Tallinn to Athens - Ms Kallas has effectively neutralised one very big Incentive for Iran to sign anything.
As for the 'concern' about the treatment of Protestors.....
The Protests started in December last year because of Iran's declining Economy. This happened because of Sanctions against Iran that were reintroduced when the JCPOA was cancelled.
So the Protests and the Government Backlash are a Symptom of a Cause that wouldn't have happened if the JCPOA was still active.
The Protests started in December last year because of economic hardship caused by the Sanctions that recontinued after Trump abandoned the JCPOA.
ReplyDeleteBillions of Currency Units of Business were wiped out when the Sanctions prohibited Iran from trading with anyone in the developed World. This had a devastating effect on an Economy that had already suffered years of Sanctions before the JCPOA.
The Trump Administration must know this, like other American Governments knew it would do the same thing with Syria.. If not they shouldn't be in Government.
This is why all this 'Concern' for the Protestors looks a bit disingenuous. Even more so if the threatened War on Iran goes ahead and kills more of them than any Security Forces have.
The whole Crisis looks more and more like it has been manufactured by the Americans, starting with Trump#1 and is a replay of other Policies in the Region.
It also looks like an Attempt to appropriate a Deal that was sponsored by the UN and had the legitimacy of International Law - putting Trumps stamp on it with undue influence from Israel.
And why won't the Media tell us this when it's obvious to anyone?
ReplyDeleteAlso, what would the Law enforcement agencies of any modern liberal Democracy do if Protestors started using Firearms? Some of those Scenes in Iran are more like Firefights between Combatants than Protests.
Meanwhile, the Iranians are prepared to engage in Talks but they will only be kept to the Nuclear Enrichment Issue.
They will not discuss either their Missile Program of their Support for other Groups in the Region.
Given that Stephen Witkoff was obliged to visit Benjamin Netanyahu before he 'negotiates' with Iran it's obvious that he and who he represents want to remove what little Support the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank have left.
And how about the rest of the Region?
Washington must know how disruptive any War with Iran will be and what that could mean for the World's Fuel Supply which has already taken a battering by events in Eastern Europe.
In 1973 the Arab States withheld Oil Supplies to Countries supporting Israel which caused huge Queues at Petrol Stations and a lot of disruption.
As America seems to have begun acquiring the vast Oil Reserves of Venezuela is this a Contingency against that happening again? That or how Oil Supplies might be so disrupted in the Gulf by the War they are manufacturing with Iran the Arab Petrodollar Economy collapses and the US can sell Venezuelan Oil at a Premium?
Since their manufactured and deliberately protracted War in Ukraine this is what happened in Europe as it lost its cheap, reliable Russian Fuel.
And while Kaja Kallas shows the diplomatic Skills of an Imbecile in an EU so bereft of Political Luminaries like Schroeder and Chirac it isn't as if the Continent is in a financial Position to beat the Drum for more War.
Indeed, it has to be asked just how much more can the System take - battered by Pandemics and Conflict - before it goes into free fall?
Oh, and if all of this wasn't bad enough the last Nuclear Weapons Treaty left expired at Midnight last night.
Amid claims that Iran was cheating on their commitments to the JCPOA - which is why President Trump claimed he abandoned it - here's a Statement from a Representative of the IAE refuting the Myth that they were .......
ReplyDeletehttps://www.us-iran.org/resources/2018/8/4/myth-vs-fact-jcpoa
I've maintained that the JCPOA was a good, solid Treaty - not just because it guaranteed Iranian Compliance but also because of its 5+1 Arrangement. It had multilateral Legitimacy with the UN Security Council giving it scope for further enhancement with the international Community.
And because it lifted Sanctions it contributed to economic Stability.
The Treaty or Arrangement they will get with the Talks in Oman today are nothing like as solid and will be unilateral - involving Iran and the US+ Israel. Given what happened last year this might not be the most reliable Arrangement.
And will Stephen Witkoff offer Tehran an off ramp from the Sanctions that were reinstated after Trump abandoned the original Treaty?
The JCPOA attached no conditions about Iran's support of Allies in the Region or it's ability to defend itself.
ReplyDeleteBoth have proved effective to at least keep Israel in check as the latter has brutalised Gaza for over 2 years, captured and occupied more of the Golan Heights since the Assad Regime collapsed in December 2024 and bombed Lebanon.
The Iranians are sceptical at suggestions they should give up the means to hit back at Israel like they did last year which proved very effective. The Israelis were shocked at how extensive the Iranian retaliation was and it probably helped curb some of their activities and contributed to their Ceasefire in Gaza. Not perfect but at least giving the Palestinians and Aid Agencies some breathing space.
The Americans should realise that Iran is crucial to the balance of power in the Region .
Also, because of the disruption any War in the Persian Gulf would cause to Fuel supplies and economics Chinese input would have been useful. They had this, being one of the permanent Members of the UN Security Council. They get 50% of their Oil from the Gulf, so they and others involved with the JCPOA had an interest in it's success.
Probably the most we can hope for with the current Negotiations is that the immediate Threat of War is lifted, but Mr Witkoff has to realise hat Iran will not allow itself to be made prostrate.
I do feel that the international Community should be doing more to put pressure on the Americans to withdraw - which at least ratchets down the Tension by a few Notches.
While America uses it's concern for Protestors as the Pretext for their current Actions how many times has the National Guard been deployed during Protests in America (Kent State, Detroit etc) Civil Rights and Anti Vietnam War Campaigners would know about all that.
And how about more recently?
https://www.naacpldf.org/case-issue/challenging-state-violence-authoritarianism/
This is also the same America that has supported the same Israel that has killed Journalists covering the Conflict in Gaza, and who have bombed Schools and Hospitals while targeting Aid Workers trying to feed and treat Palestinians.