From "Axis of Evil" to being "On the Brink"

As the Title suggests this examines the Quote from a 2002 Speech by an American President to one from a British Foreign Secretary a couple of days ago.

So how did we get here?

From "Axis of Evil" to being "on the Brink".

The recent Protests and State response in Iran which has caused the current Crisis where Diplomatic Missions in the middle East are evacuated and the West readies for War with Iran did not happen in a vacuum and started years ago with GWB.

Even the AI on Google agrees in response to the Question: "Did "Axis of Evil" cause the conservative backlash in Iran here was the response......

"Yes, George W. Bush’s foreign policy, most notably his 2002 "Axis of Evil" speech, is widely credited with fueling a conservative backlash in Iran that crippled the domestic reformist movement.

Key impacts of the Bush administration's approach include:

Empowerment of Hardliners: Bush's rhetoric provided Iranian radical Islamists with a powerful political weapon to use against their modernist rivals. By framing the U.S. as a persistent existential threat, conservatives revived militant revolutionary language and sidelined reformists like President Mohammad Khatami.

Stalling Reform: The "Axis of Evil" label was viewed by Iranian political elites as a "betrayal" of the cooperation Iran had provided during the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. This shift eroded the ability of reformists to argue for transparency or moderation in foreign and domestic policies.

The "Axis of Evil" Impact: The speech sparked immediate outrage across Iran's political spectrum, uniting both reformists and conservatives in condemnation. Analysts note that while public support for reform remained high, the conservative "Old Guard" successfully used the perceived American hostility to seize the political initiative.

Long-term Shift: This backlash contributed to the eventual rise of hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005, marking a significant departure from the more cooperative era sought by reformists earlier in the decade."

So the Situation in Iran that threatens to draw the whole World into WW3 began 24 years ago with a Speech by the US President of the time.

Something many of us have been very critical of in the years since.

What I'm saying here is a reformed Iran was exactly what the Iranians were working towards 25 years ago - without the risk of a regional, or even a global, War - until their task was made next to impossible by a misguided and ignorant Speech by an American President in 2002.

A Speech that ignored recent History the Presidents own Father was involved in.

To lump Iran in with Iraq was extremely erroneous given how they had fought a brutal War with each other in the 1980's - during which America and others supported Saddam. Iran remained neutral during the 19901 Gulf War and did not support Saddam at all.

To compare them to North Korea was even more erroneous as it ignored the Fact that traditionalist Muslims don't like Communists. This was exactly why America supported the Mujahedin in Afghanistan as they fought the "Communist Infidels" of the Soviet Union and their own Government. Or why the Soviets supported the Marxist in Kabul and were fearful of the Islamic States in their own backyard.

Both Foreign Policies happened when GWB's Father was the American Vice President.

24 years later you have an Iraq whose Shia Muslims are as loyal to Tehran as they might be Baghdad, an Iran who now probably does have dealings with a Nuclear North Korea, and a Geopolitical Alliance with both Russia and China.

Instead of a reformed Iran that could have happened without Bloodshed.

And one that doesn't now face the Risk of Civil War like the one that raged in Syria for nearly 15 years. Except this one would happen in a Country that could sever the Persian Gulf from the rest of the World, flatten pro-Western Arab States, severely damage Israel, is far bigger and geopolitically far more significant to their Allies.

A lot of gung ho Idiots might think that putting pressure on Iran acts as a choke point to China but Chinese Oil imports from the Gulf Region amounted to half it's total in 2024.

Any destabilisation in Iran threatens to render the Straits of Hormuz completely unnavigable which would include Shipping to China from all the Gulf States. Would Beijing tolerate such a huge disruption to its Supply?

The gung ho Lunatics might think it's a good thing if that happened but here's why it wouldn't be.

China supplies America with 50% of the USA's medical needs including essentials like Gauze, protective supplies and basics like Ibuprofen.

The EU is even more dependent - relying on China for up to 95% of its ingredients for Drugs like Anti Biotics.

There are many other Areas of Industry where China has become a huge supplier of Goods - from electrical and consumer Goods to EV's and heavy engineering - and while importers are trying to become less dependant on Chinese Products it won't happen overnight, while the resulting economic conflict would merely add to the Tension.

And this doesn't include the growing standoff involving Taiwan, the world's biggest supplier of microprocessors.

All of this at a time when supply chains are under more strain than they have been since WW2.

If People think Price increases have been steep in the last 4 years what might they be if the Situation in Iran escalated?

None of this helped by what is happening in Venezuela and elsewhere.

In both "Threads" and "Countdown to Looking Glass" - Films that deal with the Preamble to Nuclear War the Scenarios start in Iran, but the Threat now is more real than even the most realistic of Films.

America was always worried about the Soviet Union taking control of Iran's Oil - which is why they deposed Iran's leader Mohammed Mossadegh and installed the Shah. They continued to supply Iran with Weapons until the Islamic Revolution toppled the Shahist Regime in 1979, after which they were concerned that the Soviets would move on Tehran to establish Geopolitical and economic Links.

Russia now has very firm links with Iran - being the main provider of Nuclear Technology while Iran has supplied Moscow with Weapons used in the War in Ukraine. Al lot of this in response western Foreign Policy with both Countries. In better times Russia acted as guarantor to Iranian complicity with the JCPOA Treaty. As the Situation deteriorated that no longer applies.

WW2 started with Conflicts in various Parts of the World gradually merging with each other, from the Far East to North Africa, Spain and the rest of Europe - and finally America.

We are seeing the same thing happening gradually now and Tensions don't seem to be easing. Conflicts in Eastern Europe, North Africa, the Arctic Circle, the Far and Middle East and Latin America.

Unfortunately any World War resulting from these won't end with Victory Street Parties in Trafalgar and Times Square, or Red and Tiannanmen Square depending in which side you are on.

They will end with nothing - because no one will win and everyone loses everything.

And also ........

Given what happened in Iraq after Saddam and the brutal Pogroms against Alawite Muslims and Christians in Syria after the collapse of the Assad Government has anyone considered what could happen in Iran if the same thing is done there?

Alawites - including Women and Children - were slaughtered in Syria by Agents of the HTS Government even though they had nothing to do with the Assad Regime. Christians were murdered despite Jolani's assurances of religious Pluralism. So how about Iran after 46 years and anyone who is accused of being involved with the Government? Given the Slaughter in Syria would the new Regime bother to establish Guilt or Innocence?

Then there was what happened in Iraq after Saddam, where Maliki's Government imposed discriminatory Laws against Sunni Muslims regardless of any involvement in the Ba'ath Party.

They endured everything from suspected Complicity to accusations of Terrorism and lost many Rights including those to their own Property.

The potential for a terrible Pogrom in Iran should the Government fall is quite real and could kill, maim and displace 100's of 1000's.