Do Nuclear Weapons guarantee Peace?

 

1. Do Nuclear Weapons guarantee Peace .....?
   
   No they don't......
   
   Within a couple of years of their use on Japan Nuclear Weapons did not deter the Soviet Union from their blockade of Berlin. Neither did they prevent North Korea - with Soviet and Chinese Support - from invading the South. They did nothing to stop the Warsaw Pact clampdown on the Protests in Poland and Hungary in 1956 and did not dissuade North Vietnam from pursuing their Aims - again, with Soviet and Chinese Support - in Indochina against Saigon, the French and Americans. The same applied in Czechoslovakia in 1968, the various Cold War Crises of the 1970's and the Soviets War in Afghanistan.
   
   Indeed, it could be argued that they nearly caused World War several times during all this ....
   
   General MacArthur wanted to use the Bomb on North Korea and China but, thankfully, was prevented from doing so by President Truman.
   
   The Cuban Missile Crisis pushed the World to the Brink by mutually provoking both America and the Soviet Union. Khrushchev wanted Missiles in Cuba because America had them in Turkey, both of which would have rendered any early warning Systems useless by their Proximity, and there were People in X-Com who were prepared to launch a full scale pre-emptive Attack on Cuba in response to the Weapons that were there.
   
   Nixon wanted to use them on North Vietnam but cooler Heads prevailed.
   
   More recently, the UK might have had the Bomb but it did not prevent the Argentine invasion of the Falkland Islands, even though Polaris could very easily have been launched from a Submarine off the Coast of Buenos Aries.
   
   It was the prospect of a Nuclear Strike by the West created during the Exercise "Able Archer" in 1983 which nearly prompted a full Soviet Response.
   
   Both India and Pakistan have Nuclear Weapons, but their continuing and occasionally violent Spat about the disputed Kashmir Region has never ended.
   
   Both China and the US have the Bomb but neither have prevented the other in the continuing Jostle over Taiwan. Nukes did nothing to prevent the provocatively unthinkable recently when the Speaker of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi crossed the diplomatic Line and recognised Taiwan as an independent country. The proverbial Third Rail in Sino-US Relations.
   
   Israel now has Nuclear Weapons, but this has never prevented any incursions against them since, or the huge Iranian Response to their Assault last year (2025).
   
   So it could be argued that the very existence of Nuclear Weapons might actually cause War and even the Doomsday Scenario. They induce a sense of Complacency which neglects other Solutions.
   
   The Cold War started when Truman wanted to scare the Soviets by using a new Atomic Weapon in 1945, which merely hardened Attitudes and guaranteed that Moscow would begin work on their own Bomb rather than a Spirit of Conciliation between the former WW2 Allies.
   
   It wasn't until the Missile Crisis of 1962 when the potential use of Nuclear Weapons became horribly apparent that work started to be rid of them with the first in a succession of Treaties governing them.
   
   

2. Have Nuclear Weapons even escalated Conflict?
   
   Yes they have and Events from the end of the 1950's to 1962 and again in 1983 prove that.
   
   There had been a 15 year stand off between the West and Soviet Spheres since the end of WW2. There were even hostilities during times when one was very close to the other.
   
   Khrushchev once described West Berlin as "a Bone stuck in his Throat" while there might have been the Blockade and then the Berlin Wall in response to all this.
   
   America had a similar Attitude about Cuba after the Revolution and it became apparent they were Communists allied to the Soviets. There was the disastrous Bay of Pigs Fiasco, economic Warfare and even novel Ideas to depose Castro.
   
   But neither led to whole Fleets facing each other off in the Atlantic like they did during the 1962 Crisis - which was caused by the very presence of Nuclear Weapons close to each others Territory.
   
   "Able Archer" in 1983 might otherwise have been seen by the Soviets as just another NATO War Exercise were it not for what was thought to be a first Strike Nuclear Attack until further Scrutiny showed it wasn't. Were it not for the better Judgement shown by a Soviet Lieutenant that Day civilisation would have ended 43 years ago.
   
   This wasn't the only time the Soviets saved the World from the Abyss.
   
   During the 1962 Missile Crisis a Soviet Submarine was being pummeled by American Depth Charges and the Captain was on the brink of using a tactical Nuclear Weapon. The Crews Political Officer talked him down and prevented Nuclear War.
   
   Many have suggested that Truman was wrong to use the Bomb against Japan.
   
   It could also be argued that the Soviets would have forced Emperor Hirohito to sue for unconditional Surrender after they smashed the Japanese Armies in Manchuria and Mongolia. Japan had been hoping for a conditional Surrender via Moscow in the months before and had never faced the Soviet Army in Battle.
   
   They very rapidly lost all the Territory they had on the north eastern Asian Mainland and it was obvious the Soviets weren't going to act as intermediaries.
   
   So the use of the Bomb might have been unnecessary - even though the first Attack was before the Soviet Declaration of War on Tokyo. This is because their Invasion of Manchuko took months to prepare and Stalin had pledged a War on Japan as long ago as Yalta in February 1945, long before he knew about American Nuclear Weapons.
   
   So Truman might have begun a 45 year Spiral that could very quickly have gone into apocalyptic free fall.

From "Axis of Evil" to being "On the Brink"

As the Title suggests this examines the Quote from a 2002 Speech by an American President to one from a British Foreign Secretary a couple of days ago.

More recently, things have escalated even further as a US Carrier Group makes it's way towards the Gulf. This is how several Scenarios lead to WW3.

From "Axis of Evil" to being "on the Brink".

So how did we get here?

The recent Protests and State response in Iran which has caused the current Crisis where Diplomatic Missions in the middle East are evacuated and the West readies for War with Iran did not happen in a vacuum and started years ago with GWB.

Even the AI on Google agrees in response to the Question: "Did "Axis of Evil" cause the conservative backlash in Iran?" here was the response......

"Yes, George W. Bush’s foreign policy, most notably his 2002 "Axis of Evil" speech, is widely credited with fueling a conservative backlash in Iran that crippled the domestic reformist movement.

Key impacts of the Bush administration's approach include:

Empowerment of Hardliners: Bush's rhetoric provided Iranian radical Islamists with a powerful political weapon to use against their modernist rivals. By framing the U.S. as a persistent existential threat, conservatives revived militant revolutionary language and sidelined reformists like President Mohammad Khatami.

Stalling Reform: The "Axis of Evil" label was viewed by Iranian political elites as a "betrayal" of the cooperation Iran had provided during the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. This shift eroded the ability of reformists to argue for transparency or moderation in foreign and domestic policies.

The "Axis of Evil" Impact: The speech sparked immediate outrage across Iran's political spectrum, uniting both reformists and conservatives in condemnation. Analysts note that while public support for reform remained high, the conservative "Old Guard" successfully used the perceived American hostility to seize the political initiative.

Long-term Shift: This backlash contributed to the eventual rise of hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005, marking a significant departure from the more cooperative era sought by reformists earlier in the decade."

So the Situation in Iran that threatens to draw the whole World into WW3 began 24 years ago with a Speech by the US President of the time.

Something many of us have been very critical of in the years since.

What I'm saying here is a reformed Iran was exactly what the Iranians were working towards 25 years ago - without the risk of a regional, or even a global, War - until their task was made next to impossible by a misguided and ignorant Speech by an American President in 2002.

A Speech that ignored recent History the Presidents own Father was involved in.

To lump Iran in with Iraq was extremely erroneous given how they had fought a brutal War with each other in the 1980's - during which America and others supported Saddam. Iran remained neutral during the 1990/1 Gulf War and did not support Saddam at all.

To compare them to North Korea was even more erroneous as it ignored the Fact that traditionalist Muslims don't like Communists. This was exactly why America supported the Mujahedin in Afghanistan as they fought the "Communist Infidels" of the Soviet Union and their own Government. Or why the Soviets supported the Marxist Government in Kabul and were fearful of the Islamic States in their own backyard.

Both Foreign Policies happened when GWB's Father was the American Vice President.

24 years later you have an Iraq where many Shia Muslims are as loyal to Tehran as they might be Baghdad, an Iran who now probably does have dealings with a Nuclear North Korea, and a Geopolitical Alliance with both Russia and China.

Instead of a reformed Iran that could have happened without Bloodshed.

And one that doesn't now face the Risk of Civil War like the one that raged in Syria for nearly 15 years. Except this one would happen in a Country that could sever the Persian Gulf from the rest of the World, flatten pro-Western Arab States, severely damage Israel, and is far bigger and geopolitically far more significant to their Allies.

The Chinese angle .......

A lot of gung ho Idiots might think that putting pressure on Iran acts as a choke point to China but Chinese Oil imports from the Gulf Region amounted to half it's total Oil imports in 2024.

Any destabilisation in Iran threatens to render the Straits of Hormuz completely unnavigable which would include Shipping to China from all the Gulf States. Would Beijing tolerate such a huge disruption to its Supply?

The gung ho Lunatics might think it's a good thing if that happened, but here's why it wouldn't be.......

China supplies America with 50% of the USA's medical needs including essentials like Gauze, protective supplies and basics like Ibuprofen.

The EU is even more dependent - relying on China for up to 95% of its ingredients for Drugs like Anti Biotics.

There are many other Areas of Industry where China has become a huge supplier of Goods - from electrical and consumer Goods to EV's, Telecoms and heavy engineering - and while importers are trying to become less dependant on Chinese Products it won't happen overnight, Factories, Foundries and retooling can take years to develop, while the resulting economic conflict would merely add to the Tension.

And this doesn't include the growing standoff involving Taiwan, the world's biggest supplier of microprocessors.

All of this at a time when supply chains are under more strain than they have ever been since WW2.

If People think Price increases have been steep in the last 4 years what might they be if the Situation in Iran escalated?

None of this helped by what is happening in Venezuela and elsewhere.

In both "Threads" and "Countdown to Looking Glass" - Films that deal with the Preamble to Nuclear War the Scenarios start in Iran, but the Threat now is more real than even the most realistic of Films.

America was always worried about the Soviet Union taking control of Iran's Oil - which is why they deposed Iran's leader Mohammed Mossadegh and installed the Shah. They continued to supply Iran with Weapons until the Islamic Revolution toppled the Shah'ist Regime in 1979, after which they were concerned that the Soviets would move on Tehran to establish Geopolitical and economic Links.

Russia now has very firm links with Iran - being the main provider of Nuclear Technology - while Iran has supplied Moscow with Weapons used in the War in Ukraine. A lot of this in response to western Foreign Policy with both Countries. In better times Russia acted as guarantor to Iranian compliance with the JCPOA Treaty. As the Situation deteriorated that no longer applies.

WW2 started with Conflicts in various Parts of the World gradually merging with each other, from the Far East to North Africa, Spain then the rest of Europe - and finally America.

We are seeing the same thing happening gradually now and Tensions don't seem to be easing. Conflicts in Eastern Europe, North Africa, the Arctic Circle, the Far and Middle East and Latin America.

Unfortunately any World War resulting from these won't end with Victory Street Parties in Trafalgar and Times Square, or Red and Tiananmen Square depending in which side you are on.

They will end with nothing - because no one will win and everyone loses everything.

And also ........ How about the Iranian People themselves?

Given what happened in Iraq after Saddam and the brutal Pogroms against Alawite Muslims and Christians in Syria after the collapse of the Assad Government has anyone considered what could happen in Iran if the same thing is done there?

Alawites - including Women and Children - were slaughtered in Syria by Agents of the HTS Government even though they had nothing to do with the Assad Regime. Christians were murdered despite Jolani's assurances of religious Pluralism. So how about Iran after 46 years in it's current form and anyone who is accused of being involved with the Government? Given the Slaughter in Syria would the new Regime bother to establish Guilt or Innocence?

Then there was what happened in Iraq after Saddam, where Maliki's Government imposed discriminatory Laws against Sunni Muslims regardless of any or no involvement in the Ba'ath Party.

They endured everything from suspected Complicity to accusations of Terrorism and lost many Rights including those to their own Property.

The potential for a terrible Pogrom in Iran should the Government fall is quite real and could kill, maim and displace 100's of 1000's.

2012 ....... Or the Day after Tomorrow?

 2012 ........ or the Day after tomorrow?

A Geologist could study the Fault Lines and Tectonic Plates of the geopolitical World as much as they could the geological ones.

A Patchwork or Network of Allegiances and Enmities that met at certain points mostly remaining dormant apart from an occasional Rumble as they jostle against each other then settle down.

But what if they don't and begin to erupt or cause an Earthquake like those at San Andreas?

Berlin was one for a very long time, with several tremors caused by the Berlin Airlift, and the Building of the Wall. Korea saw the huge Plates of the Soviet Union and China collide with a predominantly American one. Cuba in 1962 or Hungary and Poland in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968, then there was Vietnam. 

Not to mention the various Conflicts of "Proxies" in the Israeli-Arab World.

The Balkans in the 1990's was another as the Serbs were tacitly supported by Russia and others by the West and finally NATO.

The Ukraine is an example of how this has happened after it remained dormant after WW2. It might have seethed occasionally during the Cold War with Operation Nightingale and maybe even a few stand offs in the Air and on the Sea with NATO in the Black Sea but these were isolated Incidents.

But what we have seen in recent years is different and the Incidents not only aren't isolated they are also causing other Fault Lines in the region and beyond to rupture. From the Baltic to the Balkans old Wounds that were gradually healing have reopened. This has also happened in Scandinavia which has even seen new ones form between Russia and Sweden.

The Balts have revisited their Acrimony with Moscow and Poland seals it's Border with Belarus while watching the Suwalki Corridor.

In an ominous resonance of History the Balkans have begun to creak. The Serbian Government try to straddle their Loyalties with both Russia and the EU they are now surrounded by. They are also now surrounded by NATO - who launched their Assault on Serbia in the 1990's. This might have begun to heal in an uneasy Peace were it not for the War in Ukraine which has caused the Serbs to look to their traditional Russian Allies as they wonder what intrigue could be done to them.

The Bosnian Serbs in Pale have begun to jostle for Secession from the Bosnian Federation which puts a huge strain on the Region and causes raised Eyebrows in both Brussels and Belgrade.

While not in NATO Bosnia - or at least its Bosniaks - enjoy preferred Status, but while things remain in flux it allows the Bosnian Serbs a very small Land bridge to the Dalmatian Coast and the outside World.

The increasing Pressure caused by the War in Ukraine and the growing Tectonic Plates that confront each other in it could cause any allegiances in the former Yugoslavia to solidify and become fixed.

A Trip to Sarajevo anyone?

Further East, the Fault Line of Transnistria - which erupted in War between pro-West Moldovans and ethnic Russians - had remained dormant for 30 years until the Ukraine Conflict caused a Conflict Line between Russia and the eastern Balkans.

Then, there was "Axis of Evil" and how that proved very counterproductive.

This created the impression that Iran, Iraq and North Korea somehow had regular meetings to decide how they would destroy the civilised world. It ignored how they were either Enemies (Iran/Iraq) or indifferent to each other (Iran/North Korea), and each worked in isolation of each other. After the "Axis of Evil" Speech they gradually found common Cause, while the Shia Moslems of Iraq gravitated to Tehran. Suddenly they begin to coalesce.

This was shown during the 12 Day War with Israel and Iran, and then America, in 2025 where the years before had seen Iran align itself with bigger players to its north and north east.

The Ukraine War reinforced this and extended it to Russia and China. Suddenly there's a vast Tectonic Plates across the length and breath of Eastern Europe, Siberia, Asia and the far and Middle East. A very dangerous Fault Line appeared in the Persian Gulf, while the Israelis onslaught on Gaza caused another which threatened the Suez Canal.

In the far East and Oceania North Korea reinforced it's Links with Russia and China causing another Fault Line with one of the Worlds biggest Economies Japan and increasing nervousness with the Anzacs. The Indonesian Islands could become a Choke Point between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, while India gradually moves towards their Continental Neighbours.

So how does all this connect with the Films "2012" and "The Day after Tomorrow"?

The former shows what happens when an Earthquake isn't just something that famously struck San Francisco or Turkey and Syria. That it involves the whole Surface of the World which is engulfed in vast Seismic Traumas and Tsunami 1000's of feet high.

That the geopolitical Tremors and Traumas which threaten us now could very quickly spread and engulf the whole World.

The latter shows what happens when a Storm does the same thing and isn't another isolated Hurricane on Americas eastern Seaboard or Carribbean.

So, while a Geologist could use their Craft to interpret Geopolitics so could a Climatologist use Meteorological Charts to do the same thing.

What is particularly ominous is how Jack's Computer generated Model shows huge Storms over where Nuclear War could happen - North America, Europe and Russia. It doubles down when it leads to an Ice Age that could be analogous to a Nuclear Winter.