Worse than M.A.D?????
There are those determined to turn Covid19 into a sort of biological Pearl Harbour, and have been spoiling for a Fight with China for years. Unlearned from History repeats itself, sometimes quite horribly, but it's an American-Japanese Fleet off the Coast of China, not a Chinese Fleet approaching Hawaii.
I'm certain People in Manchuria can appreciate the Irony!
Should we be worried about this?
Not at all, unless we remember that this was preceded by an American Destroyer being turned from the Chinese Coast 5 days ago. Reminiscent of what happened in the Gulf of Tonkin in 1965. The USS Maddox was within a few Miles of the north Vietnamese Coast before being engaged by NVA Boats. No Damage was inflicted on the Ship except a single Bullet Hole - but this was the precursor to the Vietnam War.
I've just seen a Documentary which effectively accuses the Government in Beijing of creating the Covid19 Virus and either spreading it, or causing Inertia as it made its exponential Journey through Humanity. President Trump insists he has seen Evidence of this while Scott Morrison - Australian PM says he hasn't.
Is this "Axis of Evil" the Sequel?
The Program looks very slick, far more than anything else by professional Broadcasters and Reporters, including Channel 4, the tenaciously brilliant People at "4 Corners" and the BBC. The Journalist looks and sounds like an Actor while the closing Credit Sequence might have been done by Hans Zimmer. It all looks and sounds very Hollywood and seems like the 'Production' responsible for "Axis of Evil" is at it again.
The Interviewees are intriguing.
Why is that former NSA General saying that to the Camera and not his former Boss? Another sounds like he's got a Script from GWB or Dick Cheney.
How did a Production Team glean all that info in just a few Weeks when the Security Agencies couldn't seem to in Years?
So are we being conditioned for a War with China?
The thing is, while Saddam only had fictitious WMD's the Chinese have very real ones. So did Iran and North Korea in "Axis of Evil 1" but saner Voices just about cut through the Madness and War was avoided.
A War with China can only end in one Conclusion. The so called reassurances about Nuclear War - "Duck and cover", "Protect and survive" - Shelters, Food and Medicine Stocks - are all Bulshit. It isn't the Blast, the Fire, the Fall out, Radiation or lack of Civic Order or Infrastructure that will kill ALL of us. It's the Nuclear Winter that follows. Dust in the Stratosphere that causes Years of Darkness and Cold where no Sunlight reaches the Earth. Everything dies, Flora and Fauna, there is no Food, no Warmth no Photosynthesis, no Vitamins.
People are surviving Covid19, who have recovered and now immune, and then share that with others in the form of Transfusions and Serum. Treatments are being developed and a Vaccine isn't that far off. The Lockdowns are as much of an Inconvenience as Rationing during WW2, but we got through that hopefully a better People.
NO-ONE will get through a War with China.
I'm totally for People knowing what happened with this Virus, but there's a huge difference between what REALLY happened, and what 'really' happened.
If all they get is the latter then who is to say it won't happen again?
It's like, how many Islamic Terrorist Incidents have happened after Saddam was executed on December 30th 2006? We had the London Tube Bombing in July 2007 - just one of many everywhere. As soon as this happened GWB's Claim that he was responsible for Al Qaida was shown to be wrong.
According to someone on YouTube called Military Post the American Deployment isn't particularly huge compared to the Chinese. The USS Franklyn Roosevelt is in Guam because of Covid19 while China has built Warships on a 4 to 1 Ratio to the US. This means the current USN Presence in the South China Sea is provocative, but not overwhelming. If Xi Jinping is sufficiently irritated by it he could sent a retaliatory Force to drive it off.
The M.A.D Doctrine or "Mutually Assured Destruction" meant that each Force in the Cold War could inflict such terrible devastation on the other, the World would be incinerated, thus no-one would ever do it.
This isn't and could lull Beijing or Washington into thinking a Strike would be winnable and limited. There were other Nuclear Era Wars where they believed this, but 1950 North Korea and 1965 North Vietnam weren't Nuclear capable, and neither were Galtieri in Argentina or Saddam. Both America and the Soviet Union were, thus never warred with each other. The Soviets invaded Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia but the Americans kept out of it. They had Proxies in Afghanistan but History tells us what went wrong there.
Thus, either provoking the other as they are is even more dangerous than the Cold War, or even the Cuban Missile Crisis.
And can 90's Politicians be even worse and more incompetent than President War in Cambodia, "Strategic Withdrawal" Watergate, Richard 'Tricky Dickie' Nixon?
In 1972 Nixon visited China, ending 25 Years of Isolation and met Mao Tse Tong and Zhou Enlai. It was a defining Moment in History that began a strategic and economic Process that would be felt everywhere. The Positioning with Moscow changed because of it and it resolved a Problem that had existed since the Revolution of 1949.
Every President since has visited China, seen as possibly the most important of a Presidents Itinery.
What is astonishing is this wasn't acknowledged by more recent ones. While Russia and the other former Soviet Republics signed the CFE Treaty and ended the Cold War, no such Agreement was made with Beijing. Ironically, while business ties grew and were strengthened with the PRC no Treaty exists in dealing with the Military. While you bought American Musical Instruments made in China, Beijing had its biggest Arms building Program ever.
Why didn't Bush Senior or Bill Clinton continue what was achieved with Moscow in Beijing? This might have avoided the stand-off we have now, and limited American Presence in the western Pacific!
People should say to Trump "Those 10's of 1000's of People died in America Mr President, not somewhere off the Philippines!" How much does all that cost and presumably every Sailor, Marine and Aviator have tested negative! Ahh, they didn't and Americas biggest Military Asset in the Region is quarantined!
While People see that how must they feel if they had to cancel a Holiday or an important Business Meeting?
But the pro-War Lobby persist ............
This time we are supposed to be outraged at how the Chinese Health Ministry held "secret Meetings" as long ago as January 14th 2020 to discuss an unusual Pneumonic Illness caused by a Corona Virus. That a Memo saying this was issued to City and Province Municipalities within 24 Hours, that another was instructing them to begin a Lockdown.
Through it all we are supposed to believe it was a Cover-up meant to hide the Existence of Covid19.
But weren't our Lockdowns implemented in a 48 Hour Sequence? A gradual Process that went from Wednesday to Friday of that Week in March? That the Saturday before saw the biggest Crowds in years, from Snowdonia to Beach Resorts everywhere? That while we did this our Government also had private Meetings to discuss Strategy?
No Government is suddenly going to get on Street Tannoy Systems announcing something like this without first developing a Strategy. What would happen if Boris got on the Microphone and suddenly blurted .....
"Don't want to worry you all but a lethal Disease has arrived in Britain that we have no Treatment for and it could kill Millions!"
So what do the Producers of "China in Focus" suggest?
We put Webcams in Downing Street, the Health Ministry and all those SAGE Meetings so they are all public? That they do same in America and elsewhere?
They don't and most certainly won't.
As I've said before, they knew about the Virus on January 30th after the World Health Organisation made its Announcement and waited another 7 Weeks before bringing in the current Emergency Measures. They need to look at their own Inertia before accusing others of theirs!
While "China in focus" are critical of Beijing, who they say knew about the Virus before telling the rest of the World, Wuhan was put on Lockdown on the 23rd of January. A Week before the WHO made the announcement, so not only were they quite prompt at acting against the Virus what exactly was the rest of the World doing when a mega-City of 11 Million People and a Province the size of Italy was effectively curfewed?
What would you ask if the same thing was done in the City and State of New York? Or London and the rest of England against the rest of Britain?
Wuhan is the Travel Hub of China, not the Cold War closed City of Gorky and a statewide Lockdown in the most populated Country in the World isn't something you see every day.
As much Culpability rests with World Leaders and Media whose Inertia failed to impress on their People just how serious this is as might a Chinese Government who they feel acted in Secrecy. Hubei is on Lockdown for nearly 2 Months - but no one seemed to notice.
So while Hubei and Wuhan started resembling something from Quatermass as long ago as January 23rd what exactly were our Media reporting or writing about? There's always the continuing Soap Opera called "Posh n Beck's" I suppose, the "Kylie n Jason" of the 90's-2000's, and heck, perish the thought that the Kardashians might be deprived of their Column Inches!
I don't know about you but if I had just tried to go to or from Scotland or Wales and was greeted by Troops and armed Guards in Gas Masks on Hadrian's Wall or Offa's Dyke I'd be a bit worried!
It's the same now, as Vietnam 2 seems to be played out in the China Sea. Maybe the trite shite of All3Media is more important, although Martine's "EastEnders" stopped filming more than a Month ago. It's good to see that our Media are telling us about the potential War with China so we might be able to lobby our MPs and protest to Grosvenor Square long enough in advance to prevent it .............................................. huh!
And how about that Complacency?
Politicians weren't exactly pressured in those 2 crucial Months from the Wuhan Lockdown to ours. The Media didn't exactly fall over themselves to show us what was happening in China, and during its busiest time, the Chinese New Year.
But heck, maybe the Iraq War Flak Jacket in the Closet is getting a bit Moth eaten and they're looking for the next War to be embedded into!
And then this ...............
There's an intriguing Documentary on YouTube called "China's Secrets" about a Chinese Spy who had defected to Australia and divulged what he used to do when working for Beijing.
It claims the Australian Government had been infiltrated by China.
The thing is, it was posted on YouTube 5 Months ago which in the current Context makes it prehistoric. Comments have been switched off too.
Were the Allegations true it would severely undermine the Credibility of Scott Morrison's Government. It hasn't, and the Australian PM is unflinching in the Crisis that has prompted America's Accusations that China deliberately created and spread the Virus. If the Program had any Gravitas wouldn't Morrison have to either resign or support the American Claims? Wouldn't Australian Media be calling for a Vote of no Confidence and an Election?
Wouldn't they be using any and every Opportunity to put this to the PM and his Cabinet?
They aren't either.
Is there a concerted Effort to turn Covid19 into a Pearl Harbour and prompt a War with the Chinese?
The thing is, if this apparent Spy is what he claims Morrison would have to resign in a Scandal that makes the Profumo Affair look tame by comparison. The Defence Minister might have had a Fling with a Call Girl, but Christine Kieler never infiltrated the Government.
The Fact he hasn't speaks Volumes about his scepticism about China's deliberate infliction of the Virus.
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Meanwhile, as the Euro-American-Japan Fleet is scaring the Crap out of everyone by flexing off the Chinese Coast, closer to home People like Richard Branson are clamouring for a Bailout.
Instead of the War mongering going on in the South China Sea how about a Peace Corp Effort? If, during WW1 and 2 Ships were requisitioned to use for Troops and Hospitals - including the SS Canberra during the Falklands War of 1982 - People like Branson should be asked if they would donate their Infrastructure Resources to the anti-Covid19 Effort. Transport is essential and Flight has replaced Ships as the main form of international Travel.
Companies like Brakes have their Vehicle Fleets lying idle at Depots while Food Producers destroy Produce. Couldn't they, and their skilled Workers be used to collect and distribute that Produce instead? There was the War Bond System during WW1 and 2, and how you bought them and were repaid once the Conflict was finished, so couldn't something similar be done with all that? That their Services might be requisitioned during the Crisis and paid for after it?
What is astonishing is how the perceived Complacency People saw in the Politicians is concurrent with an Attitude that makes some People think they have the Luxury of being as selfish or acquisitive as ever, even during this.
The Response could be one of either....
Be like President Hoover after 1929 burying your Head in the Sand and pretending there's nothing wrong, while hoping that the same Mistakes made before the Crash will somehow save the Country.
Or like President Roosevelt - and be very proactive and innovative - with new Solutions and Ideas!
One thing is certain, no-one should be like they were in 2018 once this has ended.
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A bit more than just a Jack in the Box??????
To ease People's Minds about how the Virus could be sent via Freight Covid19 can only survive on Cardboard for about 24 Hours, while Glass and Stainless Steel only sustains it for about 2-3 Days at most. Unless you have received something from Wuhan that took less than either it's impossible to have imported the Virus via any Goods you might have received!
Anything via eBay takes at least 2 Weeks!
If most things sent from China to Britain take at least a Week, and many of them up to 4 Weeks, you stand a bigger Chance of catching Covid19 from a Letter sent first class at about 4pm which arrives at 9am the next day within Britain than anything from China. If the Virus can live on Paper for 24 Hours.
If the Government even thought it was transmissible via Post and Freight Services they'd have suspended all of it. Unless you had Bats fly out of your Parcel the chances of being killed by Post are very minimal!
Also, if Rumour Mongers do decide to spread 'Theories' that the Virus arrived here via Parcels - who stands to benefit? It wouldn't be the Chinese who would lose vast amounts of a very lucrative Business, so why would they somehow deliberately inflict it via this, or any other Means? Economic Prosperity is at the very Crux of the Jinping Government, whose People put up with the Authoritarianism so this can happen. If it became apparent that it won't that Government won't last very long.
In the growing Whodunnit Tit for Tat of Blame any Accusations made towards Beijing could back fire to the other Antagonist! Also, if there was any Truth to it People in Britain would have suffered as early as the first Week of January as all that Christmas Mail came from our former Colony Hong Kong the previous December.
Having mentioned that, it's a bitter Irony that no Military Treaty was brokered by Chris Patten in his last Week's as final Governor of Hong Kong before it was handed back to what used to be called Peking.
Xi Jinping owes his very powerful Position to the recent years of economic Growth enjoyed by China due to Reforms brought in by Deng Xiaoping many years ago. He inherited those from Le Peng and others and continued them quite successfully.
But in doing so he has to balance that with hard-line Maoist Communists who would like to say "hate to say we told you so" to the Millions not yet brought up in Life by that Prosperity. Maoists who would like to see a Return to the collectivised Great Leaps Forward and Cultural Revolutions that typified the 1950's and 60's. Then there's the Oligarch Economy that has to take second place to the Party. Money does not call the Shots in Beijing against the Regime, and there are some who feel stymied by that.
The Threat posed by either is fraught, while if the Maoists prevailed in a Coup it changes Beijing's Position with North Korea. The Alignment during the Korean War would be re-established, unlike the Situation now where China has been at the very most neutral towards Pyong Yang. North Korea's Ambitions have remained contained due to its Isolation. What would happen if that no longer applied?
What the World needs more than anything is someone to negotiate with the Chinese. The thing is, who?
Who might have enough Gravitas to have sway with Beijing? America at the moment doesn't seem capable of producing anyone who might as they are all falling over each other to see who can accuse China of any and every Malfeasance. The UN are limited in their Scope because no Military Treaty with China means China are in no Violations that could prompt Resolutions. Britain gave away her main Caveat with Hong Kong and the EU aren't exactly showing Unity at the moment.
Russia's Vladimir Putin could be the only Leader who has sufficient Leverage but Taiwan might object due to a Centuries long Dispute over Territory in Outer Manchuria (Now Russian, Taipei still claim the Area as Chinese).
Moscow have their Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship 2001, which further integrated the two Countries in mutual Co-operation and settled finally any Border Disputes. The thing is, in putting Putin in such a Position of Influence many Countries might baulk at feeling compromised with the Russians.
While all this goes on the World is stymied in creating a global Strategy in dealing with the Corona Virus. How can it if some persist in a culture of Recriminations? The Virus can not be negotiated with, whereas China can.
At the moment we are all looking down both Barrels of a Shotgun. One called Death by Disease, the other Death by Nuclear War.
I don't think Covid19 was created in any Laboratory. I think it was a natural Disease that the World was not ready for. Much has been made of things like the lack of PPE for Health Workers and that of any Treatment or Vaccine. How much less would continually updated PPE and Research into Treatment and Prevention have cost against the Military spending of recent years?
Meanwhile, in a Fit of Pique President Trump is relocating 2000 American Companies from China to India. Wonder how they're going to see that in Pakistan? The fragile Balance in the forgotten Cold War, that of India and Pakistan, has only been retained by the current Arrangement. Pakistan was poised to go to War with America a few years ago and the US installed Government in Kabul were going to support them.
What if they see India cozying up to America too much? Not only will it prompt anti-American Sentiment in Pakistan, it could also undo any Progress they made in Afghanistan.
This could throw the whole Region into catastrophe!
People might say that a Hillary Presidency could have provided the Medicare needed to deal with the Covid19 Health Crisis, except most of that would have been used up treating the Victims of her War with Russia and/or Iran. And that's assuming it didn't become Nuclear!
During the Flu Pandemic of 1918, which was concurrent with WW1 - and didn't even have the potential to be nuclear - the Federal Government were completely absorbed into dealing with the Disease in the armed Forces - at home and abroad. The Civilians had to rely on what Measures each Town, City or State implemented. It would have been the same now had the War been a conventional one. Had it been nuclear you wouldn't be alive to read this, no-one would, and I wouldn't be to write it.